Pollin': Where's the ceiling at?
Most of the time when you read stuff about the Wizards, there are certain words that you know are going to be assosciated with specific players on the team. It's almost impossible to find a sentence with Antawn Jamison's name in it that doesn't also include the word veteran. With Gilbert Arenas, you know you're going to see the word explosive somewhere in his description. Caron always gets the tough label. And of course, with Andray Blatche, you know you're going to hear the word potential used.
(AP - Manuel Balce Ceneta)
We've all seen flashes of Blatche is capable of. You don't see a lot of guys at 6-11 that can shoot and handle the ball like Blatche does. But his unique skill set isn't his only asset. He had nine double-doubles last season and only 4 players averaged more blocks per 36 than he did last year. Given that he just turned 22 last week, it looks like many more productive seasons are on the way as he starts realizing the potential everyone talks about.
While there's no debate among Wizard fans about whether or not Andray has potential or not, there has been a lot discussion regarding whether or not he'll ever realize it. We can talk all day long about whether or not he has what it takes to make the most of his considerable gifts, but we don't get into a lot of discussion about how good he could be if he put it all together. So for this week's edition of Pollin', we're strictly focusing on what we think Andray's ceiling is, not whether or not he can actually reach it. Here are ceiling levels:
- MVP Candidate: To reach this level you're looking for someone that's the unquestioned top player on a strong team over a good stretch of time with at least 7 All-Star appearances and at least one or two serious bids for MVP. Think Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Chris Webber, Dirk Nowitzki.
- Perennial All-Star: For this level we're talking about someone with 3 or more All-Star appearances, that's the top player on a decent team or a very good second option on a very good team. Think Jermaine O'Neal, Rasheed Wallace, Shawn Marion.
- Borderline All-Star: Here we're looking at someone that makes it to the All-Star game once or twice at most. Unless they're mired on a team in complete rebuild mode, they're operating as a second or third banana. Think Shareef Abdur-Raheem, Theo Ratliff, Jamal Mashburn,
- Good, but not quite an All-Star: Barring a luck selection in a down year, these guys won't ever make an All-Star team, but they're certainly above average players at their position. Think Lamar Odom, Marcus Camby, Vlade Divac.
- Solid, but not spectacular: These are guys that are going to be either average starters or above-average backups. Unless they find themselves on a perennial contender, they'll end up fading into obscurity, even if they have a longer than normal career.
Personally, I'd slot him in the Borderline All-Star range, but on the right day I could be talked into slotting him as a Perennial All-Star type talent especially if he gets traded. But what do you think? Is Andray the next big thing, or are we just drooling too much over a tall guy with strong putback skills?
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Comments
Andre
Its a tough question to answer when you say what is his ceiling but not whether he will reach that ceiling. Andre is such a tantalizing prospect. Sometimes he displays a great overall basketball sense and excellent overall game. Then other times he both figuratively and literally (foul trouble) disappears. I think his skill set puts him in the borderline all star category. This is mainly due to the fact that he’s not a natural scorer. He’s a decent shooter for a big man but not a great one. And he’s not a great finisher around the basket. So I see him as the second or third option on a good team but not THE man. Of course with the right teammates, he could jump up a level, similar to Shawn Marion when teamed with Nash.
by hotplate on Sep 2, 2008 8:19 AM EDT 0 recs
Shawn Marion
was an all-star before Nash came to Phoenix. He’s beef with Phoenix was that Nash took attention away from him.
by Aldo on
Sep 2, 2008 11:16 AM EDT
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Potential + Work = All Star
He’s getting by as a solid Starter / Key Reserve right now purely on talent. Combine that talent with a workout mania, like Arenas or Pecherov, and he could be a perrennial All-Star. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening.
by Rook6980 on Sep 2, 2008 8:57 AM EDT 0 recs
I would put Camby in a higher tier. Blatche has been playing for enough years to know what you have. He is unlikely to improve much.
by mindfeck on Sep 2, 2008 9:20 AM EDT 0 recs
He's only 21!
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Pradamaster on
Sep 2, 2008 11:11 AM EDT
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A year younger than Nick Young.
Plus, I don’t think he started playing basketball until high school. His rawness is certainly justified. I’m surprised so many people are giving up.
by Aldo on
Sep 2, 2008 11:23 AM EDT
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blatche
the potential was once there, but if hes going to be anything better than a solid starter, i think we would have noticed it by now. his tendency to foul and his overall lack of polish would have been overcome if he was going to be that good. i would be happy if he became a solid starter, which would certainly be a nice return on a second round pick
by joshp on Sep 2, 2008 10:07 AM EDT 0 recs
The right question?
The skills are there to be sure, but you have to start to wonder whether Blatche puts in the work that will enable him to realize that potential. He could be a very good defender and a matchup problem for most anyone in the league if he hit that ceiling (I like the marion comparison). But honestly, nothing he’s done since he was drafted has showed me that he can get anywhere near the level his potential dictates. After a few years in the league it’s enough with the flashes, it’s time for some consistency.
by five by five on Sep 2, 2008 10:39 AM EDT 0 recs
Borderline All-Star
I voted this way because even if Blatche puts it together mentally, he doesn’t appear like he has the supreme athleticism required to be at that next level.
Blatche’s game actually reminds me a little bit of Hakeem’s game, except without the polish (which may still come) and freak athleticism that Dream had (which he’ll never have). So Blatche is like a poor man’s version of a very young Olajuwon.
Dream was an excellent two-way player who played at MVP levels on both ends of the floor, with a ton of post moves, a nice outside shot, the ability to put the ball on the floor and nice passing skills. He could do it all, and he did everything at a high level because his athleticism was off the charts and because he had the mental fortitude for it.
by formula0 on Sep 2, 2008 11:26 AM EDT 0 recs
Not sure I see any of Hakeem in Blatche.
Just really not sure what you mean—their styles, moves, skills, body types, orientation on the court all seem different to me.
by MR on
Sep 2, 2008 12:55 PM EDT
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On this team
The guy that Blatche needs to mirror is Jamison. We’ve been training Blatche to be that perimeter-shooting, multi-talented two-way big that we’ve desperately been searching for since we started running the Princeton. Jamison’s great at that offensively, but gives up height defensively. Blatche can potentially do what Jamison does and be better defensively, but he has a lot of room to grow.
Ultimately, my hope is he develops into a Lamar Odom-type — a perimeter-oriented big who still manages to be an outstanding defensive rebounder, but someone who has flaws mentally and physically that prevent him from being a superstar.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Pradamaster on Sep 2, 2008 11:39 AM EDT 0 recs
I like the Lamar Comp
But I think Blatche has more area to grow defensively then Odom. As shown by his blocks, he can defend the paint better then Odom. Also, Blatche seems to have an eye for the pass. Lamar Odom is very talented offensively, both in passing and scoring. I don’t think Blatche can get to that level of scoring ability, however he can achieve the passing.
by zeke5123 on
Sep 2, 2008 3:01 PM EDT
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