Open thread: Now what

by Mike Prada on Sep 19, 2008 3:23 PM EDT in Injuries

I don't have eons of time right now to think about this right now, so I figured I'd open the thread up to you guys.

How do the Wizards pick up the slack without Gilbert for two months? Who needs to step up? How do you think they should play? Does the team need another guard? If so, who's out there that's realistic to sign.

There are undoubtedly more questions, but again, I'm heading out the door, so discuss them in the comments.

My gut reaction is that signing another guard would probably be a good idea, but it's by no means a slam-dunk decision. It should be pretty easy to find anybody, since this offense doesn't require specialization among the guards. It's imperitave to distribute the load more evenly than last time as well. Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison carried too much of it and both really broke down by the end of the season. Play slow, but give Brendan more touches, run more screen-and-roll with Antonio Daniels and one of the reserve bigs, something to get everyone involved.

I'm not worried that we'll survive...we survived last year and we start with a pretty easy schedule, but I worry that if Butler and Jamison don't get enough rest, they'll break down when Gilbert (hopefully) comes back.

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Really....

You touched on it in your last paragraph….all Bullets fans can really do now is cross our fingers and hope that everyone else remains healthy.

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by Kyle Weidie on Sep 19, 2008 4:13 PM EDT reply actions

east is much tougher this year

with gil out 1/3 of the season, are we still a lock to be a playoff team?

caron has yet to make it through an entire season healthy. no proven backup has emerged for him yet, nor was one signed, and now he’ll have to carry a tremendous load early on.

AD is a year older and, other than game 5, faded hard in the playoffs. dee brown was unimpressive in summer league. roger mason jr is gone. the PG spot is suddenly a MAJOR weakness for the wiz.

i’m assuming gil only misses the first 1/3 of the season, but he could miss more. team chemistry will suffer while incorporating him no matter how quickly he comes back, and we are suddenly dangerously thin in the 1, 2, and 3 positions.

personally, i’m not counting on NY, DMac, or McGee to make much of an impact in terms of wins this year. AB and ET could possibly add some Ws, but, with the young-uns looking, well, young, and the improvement within the conference, i was already bearish on the wiz this year. now my expectations have lowered even more. i think it’s going to be an uphill climb all season.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 19, 2008 6:12 PM EDT reply actions

The whole "east is tougher" thing

I’m a little skeptical. I see it more as talent being redistributed.

Among playoff teams from last year, Philly and Cleveland should clearly be better. One could also throw Toronto in there, but I’m not so sure; Ford was not as helpful as Calderon, but he was still very underrated and Jermaine O’Neal hasn’t been healthy in two years (not to mention that he was not so great when he played last year). If they improve, I think it’s very marginal.

At the same time, Boston isn’t winning 66 again and Detroit will probably drop a bit. Atlanta is also due for a fall after losing Childress.

That leaves Orlando. Orlando basically swapped out Maurice Evans, Keyon Dooling and Carlos Arroyo for Mickael Pietrus and Anthony Johnson. At best, that’s a net even. There’s always internal development, but they’re probably about the same.

Among non-playoff teams, Miami’s clearly going to make a jump, but who else can you count on? Charlotte and New York have basically the same rosters, but with different coaches, each of whom plays one style and doesn’t have a great roster for it. Milwaukee swapped out Mo Williams for a Richard Jefferson, which is probably a net even. Scott Skiles may turn them around, but he also may self-destruct when he sees the dearth of quality defenders on the roster. New Jersey’s going to take a tumble for sure. Indiana may improve a bit with Ford, but it’ll be marginal. Chicago’s a major wild card; they could get a lot better if everyone returns, but there’s a lot hanging over them with the Ben Gordon situation and their shallow frontcourt.

So no, I don’t see the East as a whole being that much better. More balanced, sure, but that’s not the same as collectively being better.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 19, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions

who got worse?

only new jersey, and they weren’t a playoff team.

i could easily see toronto and philly passing the wizards. i’m not so ready to write off atlanta. miami might be a playoff-caliber team next year. boston, detroit, orlando, and cleveland were top 4 last year and won’t drop. that’s 9 teams right there. chicago added rose. add them to that mix. that’s 10 teams.

wins could be harder to come by. milwaukee should be better. indiana was okay last year and they might be better. charlotte should be healthier this year.

knicks will probably still suck. new jersey will suck. but neither of them will suck as bad as the heat did last year.

anyway, all you had to do was turn miami from the absolute worst team in the league to a playoff-caliber team and the east got much tougher right there.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 19, 2008 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions

It's only predictions

So it’s just your word against mine here, and I get to explain myself in the competition discussions.

But Boston got worse without Posey, Detroit got worse with age, Atlanta got worse without Childress and New Jersey definitely got worse without Jefferson and Kristic. And I wouldn’t be surprised if a team with only two above-average players (Vince and Devin Harris) wins 15 games this year. They’re that bad.

Orlando’s the same, if not a little worse. Charlotte didn’t change its roster and brought in a coach who hasn’t succeeded with a young, developing team before. New York’s the same, just with D’Antoni running seven seconds or less with Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph.

Milwaukee added one semi-decent player and traded another and brought in a coach who will go ahead and play the no-talent “defense” guys over his good players who don’t play defense(if you see Michael Redd losing his minutes to Charlie Bell, you’ll know why). Indiana did the same. Toronto did the same.

Chicago does add Rose, but might lose Ben Gordon. Plus, Rose is 19 years old, there’s a steep learning curve. I can’t think of one 19-year old point guard who made any sort of impact. Even guys like Gary Payton and Deron Williams struggled in their first year. Chris Paul’s the only guy I can think of who was awesome right away. I think Chicago will be happy if he’s average this year. Average is what Kirk Hinrich usually is (actually, he’s usually a bit above-average), and Rose will be taking his minutes. I don’t think they’ll improve, personally.

Philadelphia’s better, for sure. But are they 15 wins better? 10 wins better? Are they even 6 or 7 wins better? Methinks its somewhere between 7-10 wins better. They still have no shooters, just like the 2005/06 LA Clippers, who won 47 games.

Miami’s definitely better, but is a team with only three good players really a lock for the playoffs? Plus, one of those three is Michael Beasley.

Cleveland’s the team I expect to jump the most, but that’s only 9-10 games.

There’s more depth, but there are many teams who haven’t improved as well. It’s an uphill climb because there’s no Arenas, not because the East is better.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 19, 2008 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions

i strongly disagree unfortunately

boston might be a little worse, but let’s examine that. they creamed everyone last year. yet the wiz won the season series against them. so that’s a 4 game swing for the wiz against the rest of the conference (other than orlando). this year, if boston’s a little worse, that means other teams might take some games off them. if wiz don’t win season series against them, that swing goes away.

that hurts the wiz.

basically, the bottom half of the conference was god awful last year. pretty much everyone from the sixth spot in the playoffs to the bottom of the conference sucked. boston and detroit might give back some wins this year and new jersey definitely will. however, it’s a zero sum game, and for me, a good bet is that everyone else is set to win MORE games. in particular, cleveland, miami, and philly. but i also think chicago has a chance to improve considerably. and i personally think atlanta, toronto, milwaukee, indiana,and even charlotte will also be set to win more games this season.

now, that can’t all happen. something’s got to give. so, people have to place bets on which teams aren’t going to get it done next year. you seem to be betting against atlanta, chicago, and miami, and writing off milwaukee and charlotte. (if pressed, i might concede charlotte, but i won’t write off any of the others. i also don’t think new jersey will be as bad as miami was last year.)

okay, what about the wiz? with arenas back, they were yet another team that people were going to slot to win more games, making the east even tougher. however, now that his status is unclear, i think a number of prognosticators will look at a wizards team with dee brown, nick young, and dominic mcguire playing significant roles and start betting against them, thinking that the wiz will slip backwards in a more crowded conference.

i hope not, but i see that it’s a VERY reasonable possibility.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 20, 2008 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

This is beating a dead horse

But neither of us really knows what’ll happen. I do know that I predicted everyone’s records using a spreadsheet, making sure the combined win/loss differential added up to zero. I don’t recall predicting huge, unrealistic falls for anybody (though of course that’s open to interpretation), and yet the Wizards still can finish with 42-45 wins.

We shall see how it plays out, but I really think the whole “East is better” argument is overblown. That’s not to say the East isn’t better, but I think it’s marginal. It’s a zero-sum game, but that’s within the entire league, not just the East.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 20, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

we just happen to disagree is all.

you already slotted atlanta at 35-47 and chicago at 33-49. i’d put both atlanta and chicago at 40+ potential. same for miami. i see philly, cleveland, toronto, detroit, orlando, and boston at 45+ potential. if you also put the wiz at 40+ potential, that means the conference is tougher, playoff wise. two of those teams aren’t making the playoffs. odds are chicago and miami won’t, but the wiz are suddenly much less of a lock to do so. last year neither miami nor chicago was a factor in the playoff picture. it’s likely to be a different situation this year. that’ll make it tougher for the wiz to make the playoffs.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 20, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Take a flyer on Salim Stoudamire, maybe?

Dude bombs threes.

I’m probably the 870394203rd person to say this, but: I think the Wizards will miss Roger Mason Jr. this year.

:-(

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by Evan Dunlap on Sep 19, 2008 8:12 PM EDT reply actions

Well, now that Arenas is hurt

Obviously they’ll miss Roger. But if Arenas was healthy, Roger wouldn’t have played nearly as much as he did this year.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 19, 2008 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Not even as the backup 2?

You would know better than I, but I get the impression that Mason would have slotted behind DeShawn and in front of Nick Young.

Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation

by Evan Dunlap on Sep 19, 2008 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

Obviously Wiz are expecting Young to make the “jump” this year, and thus take Mason’s place – but even if Mason was here and ahead of Young, if Arenas was healthy then Mason would have seen no time at PG, whereas last year he played a significant number of minutes there. Basically, the backcourt would have been pretty crowded as Arenas is basically an addition to last years team and NY is slotted to get more time than last year – Mason was the odd man out and that’s why he’s gone…

Getting buckets since 2003.

by Icantfeelmyface on Sep 19, 2008 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions

mason odd man out

means that you’re counting on young being reliable this year. not guaranteed.

mason was odd man out money wise. that’s for sure.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 20, 2008 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't know about odd man out

I’m sure Eddie would find a way to play him if he was still around.

But if Arenas is healthy, Roger’s a third-string PG and maybe a second-string SG, depending on what happens with Young. That isn’t too many minutes to go around.

If, say, we traded AD, then Roger’s valuable to have, but we never did that.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 20, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

well, mason would have been valuable to have regardless, right?

because he’s a solid player – even if young blows up and he got lost in the rotation.

we just couldn’t afford him is all.

it’s funny what one year can do though. last year i wouldn’t have considered him much of an asset. we’ll have to hope someone makes a similar increase in value this season. i’m not ready to bet on that though which is the problem i’m seeing.

of course, if we had known arenas was going to be out two months ahead of last season, i sure as hell wouldn’t have bet on roger mason jr making a significant contribution…

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 20, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't rush a move

With Dee Brown, we’ve got more healthy PGs right now than we did last year. The last thing I want to see is the team go out and get another guard only to have Caron or Dominic go down and kill our SF depth.

Let’s play a few games and see where we’re at before we do any roster shakeups.

And please, please(!) don’t trade for Jamaal Tinsley.

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by Jake Whitacre on Sep 19, 2008 10:05 PM EDT reply actions

i'm obviously concerned

but i agree: no jamaal tinsley.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 20, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

as for what i'd do

EG already decided to stand pat, so we’re going to see how that move works out. i don’t see who he could move for help. maybe one of the frontcourt guys?

more likely, if things go south, he’ll have to sign someone to move up the depth chart in front of young or brown. i haven’t looked but i imagine there’s someone out there. juan dixon might be better than dee brown. he at least is familiar with the offense.

better hope gil comes back by january and makes an immediate impact. and like truth said, better hope no one else goes down.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 20, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd like to see Ernie try to move one of the young bigs

Either Pech or McGee could go for a young PG. Maybe Memphis will give up Kyle Lowry in return for Pech and the pick they gave us. Marcus Williams could have been an option if he was still in NJ. Maybe Houston gives up D.J. Strawberry for a second-rounder (that’d be a great move).

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 20, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions