Why I'm Scared, And Why I'm Not: Atlanta

by Jake Whitacre on Sep 14, 2008 12:01 AM EDT in Off Topic

In the coming weeks, I'm going to try (emphasis on try) and analyze our competitors in the Southeast Division and take a look at what makes them dangerous in the coming season, and what helps us sleep easier at night. This is kind of like the community projections except that:

A) No predictions on records will be made.

B) This series will be conducted in bullet point form as opposed to paragraph form.

C) These only pertain to the Southeast Division.

D) These will generally be much more poorly written than the Community Projections.

But other than that, they're kind of the same...but not really.

Why I'm scared:

The Hawks six top players (Bibby, Johnson, Smith, Horford, Williams, and Pachulia) are all under the age of 30 (EDIT: except Bibby, who is exactly 30), and I don't see any of them dropping off this season.
Josh Smith. He's pretty good.
I mentioned this in the competition discussion, but I'm going to repeat it again, don't count out Acie Law in your calculation on this team. He didn't do a whole lot last season, but with some more time in the system, I think he'll be able to do a lot more this time around.
If this doesn't give you nightmares, nothing will:

Why I'm not scared:

As well as they played last year, they still finished 8 games under .500. If you think that will get a playoff spot this year, raise your hand.
I like Mo Evans a lot, but if the Hawks think he'll be able to replicate what they lost in Josh Childress, they're going to be sorely disappointed.
You have to think that at some point within the next year or so the Hawks will have to find a way to orchestrate the alpha-dog transition from Joe Johnson to Josh Smith. Maybe it won't hurt team chemistry at all, but it very well could.
Mike Woodson's career winning percentage: .323%
Salim Stoudamire had the second best points per 36 average on the squad last season. His FG%? .361. Understandably, it doesn't look like he'll be back next season.

Atlanta is the real wild card in the East in my opinion. I could see them putting it all together and angling for a 5-6 seed if Smith, Horford, Law, and Williams all take the next step. On the other hand, they may have put expectations a little too high after their series with Boston last year and I could very well see them missing the playoffs entirely if Josh Smith and Mike Woodson start to have problems again, or if Bibby starts squabbling with someone, or a host of other problems that could come up as they try to live up to those expectations. Right now, I've got them in the 8-10 range in the East, but a lot of that hinges on how much better Josh Smith gets now that he has that new contract.

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Regarding Stoudamire

Salim won’t be back, based on what I’ve read on Sekou Smith’s blog. He’s a free agent. As a low-rent Jannero Pargo in a league in which Mike Wilks can get a one-year deal for $1.04 million, I can’t understand why no one’s signed him yet.

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by Evan Dunlap on Sep 14, 2008 12:34 AM EDT reply actions

nitpick

bibby is 30

by joshp on Sep 14, 2008 1:16 AM EDT reply actions

Early Schedule

I still think the brutal early schedule will do in the Hawks.

They’re not like the 76’ers. Last year, Philly endured a poor first half; but because they have leaders on the team, they didn’t squabble or quit. Instead they put together a tremendous second half.

Atlanta has just the opposite type of team. They will go through a really tough early schedule, and implode. They have too many players, that when the chips are down, will look out only for themselves. There WILL be dissention on the team – and there’s not an established leader to quash it.

by Rook6980 on Sep 14, 2008 10:05 AM EDT reply actions

the hawks..

as a hawks fan,the identity of this team will be with the new players we have coming off the bench..

they play more aggresive than 5 of the top 6 hawks players,except for josh smith..

they play the run,shoot,block,dunk,up and down the floor type of game like josh smith..look for the 2nd unit along with the number 11,12,and 13 players being compared to starters of other teams..

starting as soon as the mid-season,the finishers in close games and upset games will be only 2 of the starters and the rest will be bench players..

mark my words..

by FALCON1 on Sep 14, 2008 11:35 AM EDT reply actions

You're talking about

Mo Evans, Flip Murray, Zaza Pachulia, Solomon Jones and Mario West?

I mean, whatever you say…

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 14, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree – and that’s why I picked them to go 28 54
5th in Southeast, 14th in Eastern Conference

by Rook6980 on Sep 14, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Woodson's a better coach than his record

With Billy Knight as your GM and the constant upheaval with that organization, there aren’t too many coaches who would do better than he has. To me this is all about Josh Smith. Will he be fat and happy or will he play with the same hunger and tenaciousness he showed last season.
Because the Hawks found something with their run and gun style, especially once Bibby came over. They are young enough to play this style and to me they could be an East Coast Golden State. But it all depends on Josh Smith because he is the fulcrum of this system. When he is on and throwing down the huge dunks the Hawks can be electric, if he is off the rest of them are too. Even though they are in their division, part of me hopes they do well because there style is entertaining for me to watch. I think there high side is 40-43 and there low is 25-28.

Zaza Pachulia, just another reason that YouTube is great!

"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck

by George Templeton on Sep 15, 2008 9:34 AM EDT reply actions

Depth?

The statement by the Hawks fan was certainly curious as depth on this team seems to be the biggest question mark.

I do like that Jake made a point about Acie Law….he’s a gamer.

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by Kyle Weidie on Sep 15, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply actions

darkhorse IMO

they won 9 of 11 down the stretch to make the playoffs. they looked solid against boston. i think they could be an above .500 team next year, especially if people start attending their games.

wizards used to OWN atlanta. i’m don’t think they will this season. so i think the hawks are a legitimate threat. them and philly are crazy athletic.

i honestly have no idea how much losing childress will hurt them, or whether it will at all.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 15, 2008 4:57 PM EDT reply actions

hardly

i would hardly say weve owned them over the last couple seasons. theyve given us a couple really frustrating losses. its been a good series

by joshp on Sep 16, 2008 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions

pshaw

before last year we went 3-1, 3-1, 3-0 against atlanta with most of the victories being lopsided, particularly going back in time.

last year we only went 2-2, and we got creamed in the march 17 game, but that’s exactly my point: we don’t own them anymore, and that bodes well for atlanta and not so well for the wiz. i think it’s conceivable that next year we could lose the series against the hawks.

although having gilbert back should help because atlanta never had any answer for him. so, we’ll see.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 16, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

I mean

We have Gilbert back and they lose Childres, who might have been the most underrated player in the league. Seriously, the dude had a ridiculous true shooting percentage, never demanded the ball offensively, moved so well without the ball and was an outstanding defender. Right now, they’ve got a lot of guys who only function well with the ball in their hands (Bibby, Johnson, Smith, etc.).

I’m not as concerned about the head-to-head matchups, to be honest. I also think the playoff series against Boston is very misleading…Atlanta won three home games by a combined 17 points; Boston won four home games by a combined 101(!) points. Funky things can happen with a young team in a loud arena in its first playoff appearance in years.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 16, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

That's mostly a response to your first comment

Shouldv’e replied to that.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 16, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

understood

you might be right. and they do have chemisty issues. but i for one am staying away from any over/under action on the hawks this year. personally i think it’s hard to say what the hawks will do.

i agree with you on cleveland though, i’m bullish on them too.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 16, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions