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Competition Discussion: Cleveland Cavaliers

The season is still two months away, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little).  We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else.  In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next month or so.  We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z.  Today's team: Cleveland.

 

Last year's record: 45-37

In: Maurice Williams, J.J. Hickson, Lorenzen Wright, Tarence Kinsey, Darnell Jackson
Out: Joe Smith, Devin Brown, Damon Jones, Shannon Brown.

Projected starting lineup: Maurice Williams, Wally Szczerbiak, LeBron James, Ben Wallace, Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

Key themes:

  • They were so solid in the playoffs after a down regular season.  Which team will we get?
  • Specifically defensively, can Cleveland maintain the level they were at in the playoffs?
  • What does Maurice Williams do for them?  Is he the sidekick LeBron's always needed?
  • Will they get the production they need out of their old frontcourt (Wallace and Big Z)?  Do they need another body up there?
  • Now that they no longer have contract issues to settle, can Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic bounce back?
  • What role does Delonte West play now that he's re-signed?
  • Are they done making moves?
  • Can LeBron possibly be better?  Can he possibly become more of a crybaby?

Common logic dictates that when an 82-game sample (the regular season) is contrasted by a 13-game sample (the Cavaliers in the playoffs), the 82-game sample is far more reliable.  Similarly, a Wizards' fan logic requires them to hate everything about the Cavaliers, considering how they've ended our season three years in a row and are led by a star that is so unlikeable when juxtaposed with the quirky Gilbert Arenas.

Therefore, one could argue I'm going to completely ignore logic when it comes to projected the 2008/09 Cleveland Cavaliers.  Why?  Because I believe they, and not offseason darling Philadelphia, old reliable Detroit or up-and-coming Orlando, are the biggest threat to Boston in the East.  Furthermore, I strongly believe that if Cleveland and Boston meet again in the playoffs, it will be Cleveland that prevails.  And since I've already established that I believe Boston will have the best record in the East, that means I believe it'll be Cleveland that represents the East in the NBA Finals.

Last season was a really strange one for Cleveland.  Coming off a Finals appearance, they played hardball with two key cogs, Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic, and neither was in rhythm by the time their contract situations were resolved.  Daniel Gibson, 2007's playoff hero, got injured.  Drew Gooden's shot deserted him and he became a complete non-factor offensively.  Larry Hughes, meanwhile, got even worse and still sucked up a starting spot.  The defense, which was Cleveland's calling card on its way to the Finals, fell off tremendously with all this flux in the rotation.

Only the brilliance of LeBron James was keeping the Cavs afloat.  Last year, Cleveland won 45 games, but they had a negative point differential.  They would play close games and hope LeBron bailed them out, which he often did.  Other than LeBron and Big Z, there wasn't even one average player on the roster.

Then, they made the big trade with Chicago, which further threw off their chemistry.  Integrating four new pieces with just two months left in the season is never an easy thing, and Cleveland really struggled with it initially.  Considering all these problems, it's a wonder they won 45 games, really.

But during the playoffs, when Cleveland had their rotation set for the first time all season, they were much better than a 45-win team.  The first-round series win over us was not as close as the results indicated; the Cavs slaughtered us in Game 2 and Game 6, two games we desperately needed to have.  Three of the games were close, but we were constantly playing from behind.  Then, against Boston, the Cavs were a missed LeBron layup in Game 1 and a few jumpers by P.J. Brown in Game 7 away from defeating the eventual champions.  Cleveland actually outscored Boston in that series, but lost all the tight ones. 

Now, you add Maurice Williams to that mix, subtracting only Joe Smith.  Mo's not the ultimate answer to the "LeBron sidekick" search, but he's most definitely a part of the solution.  All this talk about Cleveland needing a pure point guard is silly because LeBron is such a good offensive initiator, but the Cavs did need somebody else who could handle the ball and create shots.  West was sort of playing the role during the playoffs, but he doesn't possess Mo's offensive capabilities.  In every way imaginable, Mo's an upgrade.  The only question is Mo's defense, but on a team that schemes as well as Cleveland, I don't see it being a problem (they made Wally Sczcerbiak into a competent defender, after all).

The other thing is that Cleveland's in prime position to make a major upgrade at the trade deadline, with 20-million dollars in expiring contracts (Sczcerbiak, Eric Snow).  It's a stretch to say that Danny Ferry is definitely making a major upgrade, but the way he's been talking, I'd say there's a strong possibility something big will happen.  Cleveland can use their trade chips for a real inside guy (the return of Carlos Boozer, perhaps?) or someone like Shawn Marion or Andrei Kirilenko.  If they do that, they're absolutely dynamite. 

There are some things that could slow Cleveland down.  I don't like their old frontcourt -- Ben Wallace is done, Joe Smith is gone and Big Z probably isn't going to duplicate his awesome 2007/08.  I also think they made a mistake letting Devin Brown go, because if they trade Wally for an inside guy, they're going to have a small backcourt (West, Williams, Gibson).  There's also the question of whether they'll take opponents lightly like they've done in past years. 

Still, I'm confident in saying Cleveland is going to be really scary next year.  There are teams in the East that many are picking ahead of the Wizards that boggle my mind, but the Cavs aren't one of them.

Prediction: 54-28, 1st in Central, 2nd in East

Previously (predictions are me/Jake/Truth)...

0 recs | Comment 15 comments

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My gut says...

The Cavs get to 51 wins, 31 losses. LeBron is only getting better himself, and better at playing with his teammates, along with working with his daddy, Mike Brown.

And yes, I’d be surprised if Wally’s not moved in the coming months….I’m sure Ferry will be keeping an eye on which teams are ready to retool after poor starts.

I think Tarence Kinsey could be a steal for the Cavs…..remember two years ago when he started tearing it up for Memphis? The slender 6’6" guard averaged about 27 minutes, 11 points, and 3 boards after the 06-07 all-star break. He started the last 12 games of the year and averaged 18.8 pts, 4.4 rbs, and 2.1 asts…..granted, it was for a crappy Memphis team, but this is still the NBA.

For some reason, Kinsey only played in 11 games for Memphis last year….and also played overseas in Turkey.

But kid can ball (I used to observe him at South Carolina as well)….look out for him to be a key piece of depth in Cleveland’s backcourt.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Sep 14, 2008 10:02 AM EDT   0 recs

Not sure what to make of Cleveland

Well let me add to that, I’m not sure what to make of Cleveland in the regular season. In the playoffs they’re a beast but because their offense is a train wreck they’re overly vulnerable to low-mediocre teams and lose a lot of odd games during the regular season.

All in all they’re capable of winning 50 games but I think they’ll fall a tad short again and end up in the 45-49 range.

by NBR on Sep 14, 2008 5:19 PM EDT   0 recs

52-26

It’s going to be interesting to see if LeBron has any lingering tiredness from the Olympics like he did in 2006 from the FIBA Championship, but I think the Mo Williams buzz will be enough to carry them until he’s back to normal.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by JakeTheSnake on Sep 14, 2008 6:20 PM EDT   0 recs

That doesn't add up to 82

You mean 52-30 or 56-26?

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Sep 14, 2008 6:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

4 games are cancelled after Mike Brown loses his glasses

52-30

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by JakeTheSnake on Sep 14, 2008 8:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don’t think they made Wally into a competent defender, based on the games I saw him play.

by MR on Sep 14, 2008 11:05 PM EDT   0 recs

Yea, but

Let’s not forget that Butler was much more affected by his injury than he led on.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Sep 15, 2008 12:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hold on...

Butler crushed Wally any time he could get his body to move. As I recall one of the Cav’s biggest problems was trying to get that position straight during that series because anytime Wally came in Butler went to work. That’s exactly what had me so confused about Butler’s health because he’d zip right by Wally and then spend the next three possessions without touching the ball. Or calling for it.

It led Reggie Miller to say “It looks like Wally is trying to get out of quicksand, he is three steps slower than everyone else on the court.”

by MR on Sep 15, 2008 7:46 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought Wally did well defensively for them …. and that confuses the heck out of me.

I don’t like Mike Brown in so many ways but boy does he get the best out of his guys on the defensive end.

by NBR on Sep 15, 2008 3:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It sickens me to agree . . .

. . . but I do. I guess part of it is, that whenever Cleveland plays like crap but they are close LeBaby bails them out. It seems with their aging frontline and Mike Brown’s over-reliance on halfcourt offense (and defense), the solution to the Cavaliers (at least for the Wizards) is to try to run on these guys and up the tempo. Dammit the Wizards need to beat these schmucks this year!

"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck

by George Templeton on Sep 15, 2008 9:20 AM EDT   0 recs

I reluctantly agree with everything said

The one thing I won’t be able to st

by TremendousUpside on Sep 15, 2008 1:07 PM EDT   0 recs

Tab key is giving me problems

I reluctantly agree with the analysis, but I won’t be able to stomach it if JJ Hickson turns out to be a productive front court player for them.

by TremendousUpside on Sep 15, 2008 1:08 PM EDT   0 recs

doubter no longer

lebron is the most dominant player in the nba and i’m not betting against him or his team again. i think they’ll be better this year.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 15, 2008 4:47 PM EDT   0 recs

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