It's about time for a fast start
In perusing over the newly-released 2008/09 schedule, it's clear that another bad start to the season is simply inexcusable.
Bad starts have repeatedly killed us in the past. Last year, of course, we lost our first five games pretty badly despite having complete roster continuity, and it cost us down the line. Now, we weren't winning in Boston on their opening night and probably were going to lose to either Orlando or Denver, but imagine if we beat Indiana and New Jersey as we should. Win those two and the infamous Juan Carlos Navarro game and we would have earned the home-court advantage against Cleveland in the playoffs.
But wait, there's more. We started 4-9 in 2007 and 12-18 in 2006. 2006 was particularly loony, since Caron Butler was playing off the bench, Chucky Atkins was screwing all sorts of stuff up and Antonio Daniels wasn't doing anything. I'm willing to excuse that tough start, since we were adjusting without Larry Hughes and learning how to incorporate several new faces. But, 4-9 in 2007? The only new piece we needed to integrate was DeShawn Stevenson. I'm not sure a better start would have made a difference in the playoffs, but three more wins there gives us the Southeast Division.
This year, we're going to have roster continuity and a pretty easy schedule. Eight of our first 14 are at home (actually, 15 of our first 24, to be exact), and of the six road games, only two are against playoff teams from last year (Detroit 11/1, Orlando 11/8). We do have tough home games against Utah (11/12), Houston (11/21) and Orlando (11/27), but otherwise, Atlanta's the only other playoff team we face. We have two with Miami (home and away), two with the Knicks (home and away), two with a weakened Hawks team (home and away), New Jersey (at home to start the season), Golden State (at home) and Milwaukee (on the road). There's no reason why we can't win 10 of those 14 games.
We'll need it too, because December brings Boston, Detroit, the Lakers, Philadelphia and Dallas to the Phonebooth and includes road trips to New Orleans, Houston, Philadelphia and Cleveland.
A fast start should be something to count on, since there are no new players to incorporate into the system (unless Dee Brown counts). It's time to stop shrugging off bad Novembers.
Other quick notes about the schedule:
- We have 11 National TV appearances, tied for 12th in the league with Orlando and Utah. Seems pretty typical considering our place in the league, but I think it proves that we clearly have a national profile
- We have 18 back-to-backs, which seems a bit on the high side. Last year, we had 17. The second games of those sets are as follows: @Orlando, @Atlanta, @New York, Portland, @Chicago, @New Orleans, Toronto, Charlotte, @LA Lakers, LA Clippers, @Charlotte, San Antonio, @Milwaukee, @Dallas, @LA Clippers, @Phoenix, @Indiana and Cleveland.
- Good news: No long road trips this year. Bad news: Three four-game trips and one five-of-six stretch at the end of December.
- Only one home game against Boston this year, which I find pretty disappointing. That game is on December 11 and it'll be on ESPN
- We play Cleveland and Toronto twice each in our final six games, which is huge for playoff positioning. Then, we close at Boston, which could suck if Boston is still chasing a playoff seed, but would be nice if the Celtics wrap up the East early again
- Other than three straight road games against New Orleans, Houston and Boston from December 27 to January 2, I don't see any particularly tough short stretches. Every road trip has at least one winnable game in it.
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If we could actually manage a fast start...
which seed do y’all think the Wiz would be chasing? I see the Sixers moving up and the Hawks moving back, but I would be extremely disappointed with another 5th seed.
Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!
by ledellforlife on
Aug 6, 2008 7:29 PM EDT
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The back-to-backs...
Um, yeah 18 is slightly high, but that’s not the problem. The problem is that in TWELVE of the eighteen b2bs the second game is on the road. What? We’ll be lucky to snag 4 of those.
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on
Aug 6, 2008 11:01 PM EDT
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That's not too unusual...
... since the home-home B2B is basically non-existent, and there are plenty of away-away B2Bs.
by RamVA on
Aug 7, 2008 2:08 PM EDT
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Let me try to make my point
We all know that the second game is the far more difficult game to win if the other team is NOT coming off of a B2B. But when BOTH teams are coming off of a B2B, the homecourt advantage is a serious boost. So, having 66% of the second game of the B2Bs on the road is a significant disadvantage.
But lets break this down compared to a year ago. Last year we had a much more balanced schedule: of the 20 B2Bs [sorry prada – you missed a few], the second game was home 10 times and away 10 times, or a 50/50 split. More importantly, our home record in those games was 6-4 (60%) while our away record was 3-7 (30%), for a total of 9 and 11 and an overall win percentage of 45%. The split this year is 6 home and 12 away: at last year’s winning percentages we win roughly 7 against 11 losses, for a win percentage of 39%. I realize this is really rough data crunching, but my main point is that we will be very fortunate to even get close to .500 on the second half of the B2Bs.
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on
Aug 8, 2008 12:09 AM EDT
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Given this team's history . . .
of playing up and down to the competiton, we will probably frustrated in Nov. and on our feet cheering in December. Is losing to inferior teams a problem the Wizards will finally fix?
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on
Aug 7, 2008 1:38 AM EDT
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To me....
14 out of the last 24 games on the road is tough….and this is including a four game west coast swing and a four game midwest swing.
But as True Hoop pointed out today, pretty much every team and/or team blogger is complaining about a tough schedule.
It’s the league….oh well.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on
Aug 7, 2008 3:09 PM EDT
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I think
some of you are forgeting that the Wizards will most likely have a much better record than last year if they are healthy. Some of you are talking like this season will be exactly the same as last season as far as games the Wizards would usually win or lose.
by lj15 on
Aug 9, 2008 11:09 AM EDT
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