Today's discussion topic: The 10 themes that will determine the success of next season
UPDATE, 6:37 p.m. EST: Instead of 10 themes, since I even had trouble thinking of 10 good ones in my own head, just list any number of key themes that comes to mind. My idea was to use this post and my own thoughts to come up with a master list and countdown the themes with 10 blog posts over the next month and a half. -PM
We haven't done one of these in a while, and with the dog days of August well upon us, this seems like a good time to revive this running feature.
We're probably not close enough to next season for predictions and we haven't even finished last year's player evaluations, but it's about time to at least start thinking about next year. Even if it's two and a half months away.
With that in mind, here's the exercise:
What are the top 10 factors that will determine the team's success next season? Call them "keys to success," "barometers," "questions" or whatever you want, but that's what I'm trying to get at.
There are no guidelines, other than to try to not overlap themes in your list. For example, unless you think there's a very compelling reason to separate the two, how Gilbert Arenas meshes with Caron Butler specifically should be viewed as a subsection to the greater question of how Arenas meshes with the entire team.
Discuss.
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Let's see
1. Defense.
2. Staying healthy.
3. Development of the youngsters.
4. Gilbert returning to form.
5. Keeping Brendan and Etan far, far apart at all times.
6. The start of the season. No excuses.
7. Managing rotations to prevent key players from logging too many minutes.
8. Maturity.
9. Staying healthy.
10. Defense.
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by JakeTheSnake on Aug 14, 2008 2:28 PM EDT 0 recs
I'd almost put health above defense.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on
Aug 14, 2008 3:18 PM EDT
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That's what I was thinking too
Because when they were healthy (sans Gil of course) last year, they defended pretty well. Then, Butler got nicked up and the defense fell off.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Pradamaster on
Aug 14, 2008 3:26 PM EDT
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My first thought was....
Bench play….which would go along with managing rotations.
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by Truth About It on Aug 14, 2008 3:28 PM EDT 0 recs
10 themes
1. Health – (especially the big 3)
2. Develop of young guys (Most importantly NY, and Blatche)
3. Defense (limiting wide open shots, and second chance points)
4. Gilbert – Shooting a higher percentage by taking fewer shots, and increasing his assists per game
5. Haywood still being our starter, playing 30 mins a night, and Etan having a much more limited role
6. Start of the season – can’t start slow, not with this schedule
7. Coaches / Players knowing their role – playing as one with everyone contributing what they can – also means EJ playing a standard rotation to allow players to understand their role
8. Maturity – if we get hot, not running our mouth, and if we start losing to not panic
9. Road play – we have not played well on the road
10. HEALTH HEALTH HEALTH HEALTH HEALTH HEALTH – especially during playoff time
by Blatche4MVP on Aug 14, 2008 4:17 PM EDT 0 recs
My 10 factors for success next season
1) Health and a better training & medical staff
2) Young bench players have to step up and provide consistency
3) Improvements we made in defense last season must carry-over (and hopefully even improve if possible) with Agent Zero back full-time
4) Ditto number 3, except in this case ball movement needs to carry-over
5) Haywood playing at the level he played at last year, despite the presence of Etan this season
6) Getting off to a good start, can dig ourselves the usual hole at the start of the season
7) Continue to show the toughness and professionalism we showed last season (i.e. less of the craziness / maturity issues of years past)
8) We are deeper and more balanced than in years past, and with the presence of young players Eddie needs to improve and learn to use situation lineups, stick with what works but find a medium and be prepared to go with different looks if things aren’t going well or to take advantage of mis-matches
9) Jamison – we need him to rebound the way he did last year
10) And finally, I’m going to say perception about our team needs to change in our favor. We need to beat the teams we should be beating, and take down elite teams on a consistent basis. The national media thinks we are a joke, we know we are better than that, but we (the team) may not even believe it until they start beating the elite teams on a consistent basis.
by formula0 on Aug 14, 2008 4:49 PM EDT 0 recs
Only one I object to is 4
The offense was worse last year than it was the year before, ball-movement be dammed. I think I know what you’re trying to get at, but phrasing it in the form of “better ball movement” is not how I’d do it. I’d say something more along the lines of “Gilbert limiting his usage.”
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Pradamaster on
Aug 14, 2008 5:03 PM EDT
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You're right
I definitely could have phrased that better. It is more about Gilbert limiting his usage more than ball movement. A more balanced attack if you will. So part of what I was trying to say there was that we shouldn’t need to depend on Gil on offense as much this year, and hopefully that is because other plays on the team (specifically Caron and Brendan) emerged offensively last season in his absence, and his presence this year should in theory make things even easier for them.
We could do less with Gil launching long jumpers early in the shot clock with Caron and Brendan making strides offensively.
by formula0 on
Aug 14, 2008 6:49 PM EDT
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Here's mine
Keys to the Wizards 2008-2009 Season:
1. Staying Healthy ( top 8 guys play at least 75 games each )
2. Managing minutes for the big-3
3. Perimeter Defense (specifically 3-point defense)
4. Haywood should be the starting center, and get the majority of the minutes.
5. They need to take advantage of the weak schedule in the early part of the season
6. Consistent rotations, with each of the top 10 players knowing their roles *
7. Continued development of the youngsters (specifically Blatche and Young)
8. Less reliance on outside shooting, more reliance on cutting and movement within the Princeton.
9. They need to get their “swag” back. (a Month leading the EC should do it !! )
10. Better rebounding from the whole team (especially Haywood and the Guards)…
*Top 9 Players:
Arenas – Starter (32mpg)
Stevenson – Starter (27 mpg)
Butler – Starter (35 mpg)
Jamison – Starter (32 mpg)
Haywood – Starter (32 mpg)
Blatche – Key Reserve (25 mpg)
Daniels – Key Reserve (16 mpg)
Young – Key Reserve (20 mpg)
Thomas – Key Reserve (16 mpg)
Songaila – Key Reserve (15 mpg)
Pecherov, McGuire, Dee Brown – scrubs (mop up and blow out minutes)
McGee – DLeague
by Rook6980 on Aug 14, 2008 8:17 PM EDT 0 recs
I know
The minutes per game don’t exactly add up – so just count those as “maximum” numbers…..
by Rook6980 on
Aug 14, 2008 8:20 PM EDT
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Minutes per game
I agree with the importance of managing minutes better than EJ has been, and in hindsight I actually should have had this in my top 10 somewhere but didn’t. However I don’t think it’s realistic for Arenas to average 32 mpg for the season. Yes he’s coming off surgery, but we’re expecting him to be fully healthy aren’t we? He’s still young, he’s one of the best players in the league already, and he just signed a max deal…no way he’s averaging 32 mpg for the season. Just as a barometer to measure against…..if you look at the scoring leaders last season, you have to go all the way down to #33 on the scoring leader list to find a guy who averaged below 32 mpg and that was Manu @ 19.5 ppg.
I say that we definitely need to keep both Arenas and Butler closer to 35-36 mpg instead of the 40 mpg they’ve been getting the past couple of seasons. Jamison down at 32 mpg is a good call as well I think…32 to 34 mpg for him would be best. We don’t want to burn these guys out and risk injuries again in the second half of the season, but at the same time we need them to play the average star player minutes for the league which seems to be around 35 mpg so that we can be competitive.
by formula0 on
Aug 14, 2008 8:42 PM EDT
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Arenas
The Arenas minutes were assuming the beginning of the year….. Obviously, the best player on the team should play at least 35 minutes – - – but that first 20 games or so (the easy schedule), I’d like to see Eddie limit Gil’s minutes to 30 or less….
by Rook6980 on
Aug 14, 2008 8:49 PM EDT
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Rook you and I are on the same wavelength
I wouldn’t have been as specific as you, but flop your 2 and 3 on your list and you have my list. Health and defense are the obvious bugaboos for this team. The usage of the bench and keeping the minutes of the big 3 at a respectable level is so criticial to the Wizards success once April rolls around.
And for heavens sakes can we have a season where the Wizards aren’t playing up and down to the competition because that is other thing that was so frustrating about this team last season.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on
Aug 15, 2008 12:05 PM EDT
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I know
I truly believe that defense IS important – but remember a couple of years ago when they were leading the EC – they didn’t play much defense then….
THAT’s why I put defense 3rd on my list. The Wizards can be a good team, even if they don’t play defense….
They can be a very good team if they play some defense; and they could be Championship contenders if they play excellent, 48 minute defense.
by Rook6980 on
Aug 15, 2008 8:33 PM EDT
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30 minutes or less seems really unrealistic
Unless he’s clearly not all the way back from his knee injury (like he was last year), Arenas has to play 35 minutes or more. 30 minutes just isn’t enough for the best player on the team.
I’d say the goal should be to get his minutes down from 40 to like 36-38. Other than the beginning of last season, he’s held up pretty well with a lot of minutes. His 2007 knee injury was flukeish and he was already injured at the start of 2008.
The same goes for Antawn. His injuries have been flukeish and not a result of wear and tear. Plus, he held up fine this year. I might cut his minutes only to give more development time to Blatche and possibly more power forward time for Etan. Even in those scenarios, I’d slide AJ to the 3 for a few minutes to give Caron more rest.
The only guy who’s minutes I’d cut as a preventative measure are Butler’s. He’s playing over 40 minutes a night and has broken down each of the last two seasons. Regardless of his health, I’d like to see him play about 3-5 minutes fewer per game.
It’s guys like Stevenson and Daniels who should play fewer minutes. AD will play fewer minutes if Gil is healthy, but there’s no reason to have Stevenson in for 30 minutes a night. Either shift Butler to the 2, play Young more or use a Gil-AD backcourt more.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Pradamaster on
Aug 15, 2008 12:15 PM EDT
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Be careful
30 minutes or less seems like a good place to START for Arenas this year.
He may end up averaging 36-38, but he should start out the season with fewer minutes.
by Rook6980 on
Aug 15, 2008 8:34 PM EDT
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(1) Health
(2) Gilbert returning to All-NBA level form
(3) Team defense. Perimeter defense. Interior defense. Man-to-man defense. Help defense. Whole lot of defensive changes.
(4) Haywood’s minutes. Eddie Jordan has held him back for long enough by limiting his minutes. I don’t want to see his minutes return to their previous state again. Haywood could have had this type of season four years ago except for Eddie’s undermining coaching.
(5) Blatche developing. The team needs a top rebounding presence, adding an improved Blatche to Jamison and Haywood could make a good threesome with Etan Thomas playing the fourth big in the rotation role. Blatche needs to give some offense as well around the rim. Whether it’s post play or just put backs, dunks, hustle plays, garbage baskets. He needs to get a few baskets in the paint. Too big, too athletic and too skilled not to be more of a threat.
(6) Young figuring out how to play team orientated basketball and how to contribute in more ways than one. He’s far too talented to be behaving like he does on the court, he limits himself.
by Dave W on Aug 14, 2008 10:47 PM EDT 0 recs
Haywood's minutes
Funny you should mention 4 years ago. The 2004-2005 season was the last time Haywood got significant starter minutes (27 mpg) and he put up very similar numbers to last year (9.4ppg , 6.8 rpg)… He started in 68 games that year.
Coincidentally – Etan Thomas was injured most of that year and started only 10 games …
by Rook6980 on
Aug 15, 2008 10:11 AM EDT
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khrabb
1. Arenas becomes an all-around megastar, justifies his contract and silences certain voices on the Washington Post Wizards blog.
1a. Health, especially of the big three.
2. Blatche steps up to contend for sixth man of the year.
3. Young plays up to the hype, hits the 3 consistently and improves both his body language and his court sense.
4. Defense, stop collapsing on the inside and playing the lanes for cheap steals leaving opponents wide open for kick-out threes from the corners.
5. Brendan Haywood 30 minutes a game.
6. Butler and Jamison stay solid as players and role models.
7. EJ manages the clock better, calls time outs better, avoids small ball…. yadda yadda yadda
8. Etan… 10 good minutes a night from the poet until mid season when he gets a sub-cabinet post in the Obama Administration… renounces his contract and gives EG the cap space he needs to acquire [fill in name of versatile but aging player who wants a ring]
9. JaVale grows up fast and becomes a shot-blocking force as back-up center after the All Star Break.
10. Daniels gets confidence in his ouside shooting for Christmas.
Better stop now.
by khrabb on Aug 15, 2008 11:07 AM EDT 0 recs
Um...
1. Individual Defense
2. Team Defense
3. Transition Defense
4. Perimeter Defense
5. Post Defense
6. Free Throw Defense
7. How/When/Who players foul
8. Backcourt Rebounding
9. Sticking With the Offense
10. To me, Being Healthy and Having a Good Bench go hand-and-hand; a deep bench keeps the starters from running themselves ragged.
by Pryme on Aug 15, 2008 11:44 AM EDT 0 recs
Free throw defense?
Surely you mean fouling less, not having one player stand behind the basket making distracting faces at free throw shooters.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Pradamaster on
Aug 15, 2008 12:08 PM EDT
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You don't think Brendan Haywood would be good at making distracting faces?
I do.
And, DeShawn could lip sync to whatever’s being played on the PA system. This could actually work.
Bullets Forever: Where fancy numbers and YouTube come together.
by JakeTheSnake on
Aug 15, 2008 12:36 PM EDT
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Especially if he keeps the beard
Damn, pryme, you’re a genius!
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Pradamaster on
Aug 15, 2008 12:48 PM EDT
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Actually, cancel that.

Bullets Forever: Where fancy numbers and YouTube come together.
by JakeTheSnake on
Aug 15, 2008 1:13 PM EDT
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Oh, and the link
http://www.washingtonwizardsblog.com/2008/08/15/stevenson-wins-contest-over-gooden/
Bullets Forever: Where fancy numbers and YouTube come together.
by JakeTheSnake on
Aug 15, 2008 1:14 PM EDT
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I joke, I joke...
Van Gundy once said of an old Knick team (when their opponent was shooting atrociously from the FT line) that “our Free-throw defense was excellent.”
So I use the term everytime I hear that a team has/hasn’t kept their opponent from their average.
by Pryme on
Aug 15, 2008 3:04 PM EDT
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What about the comp?
The Wizards stayed afloat last year, in part, because the conference was fairly weak; just five playoff teams had >.500 records. When projecting next season, remember that…
…the Leastern conference picked up talent (Elton Brand) or reshuffled it (Mo Williams from Milwaukee to Cleveland; Jermaine O’Neal/TJ Ford swapping places) to strengthen four possible playoff teams. Meanwhile, Dwayne Wade looks as good as ever over in Beijing, and he-Beasley-Marion alone make Miami a renewed threat; there’s also no way that teams like Chicago or New York will be as bad again, either.
by WRG on Aug 17, 2008 2:59 PM EDT 0 recs








