Player Evaluation: Gilbert Arenas
(language NSFW)
- Etan Thomas
- Oleksiy Pecherov
- Dominic McGuire
- Nick Young
- Andray Blatche
- Roger Mason
- Darius Songaila
- Antonio Daniels
- DeShawn Stevenson
- Brendan Haywood
Stats: Per-game: 32.7 minutes, 19.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.8 steals in 13 games.
Per-36: 21.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.9 steals.
Percentages: 39.8 FG%, 77.1 FT%, 28.2 3PT%, 45.4 eFG%, 52.9 TS%
Advanced (explanations): 18.2 PER, 27.4 AST%, 17.1 TO%, 31.1 UsgR, 102 ORtg, 109 DRtg, -1.5 WSAA (win score above average).
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Pradamaster: These evaluations are supposed to be about the players' season, with a quick glimpse into what it means for the future. With Gilbert Arenas, though, it's obviously not that simple. So I'll try to sum up the Arenas package, trying hard not to contradict what I've previously written. Fair warning: what results is pretty long-winded.
This was a horrible year for Gilbert, no doubt about it. He spent the offseason rushing his rehabilitation, playing pickup games in Barry Farms when he should have been more careful. He clearly looked wrong at the beginning of the season, yet Eddie Jordan played him 40 minutes a game. Then, of course, he went out again and the team proceeded to succeed without him until Caron Butler got hurt. Arenas eventually delayed his comeback until there were only five games left in the season, choosing instead to do interviews and write blog posts about his contract status. In his first game back, he didn't even tell his coach he wanted to play.
He wasn't much better in the playoffs. Save for a great Game 1 in a losing effort and the game-tying shot in Game 4, he was a non-factor because of the knee,. One could argue that he messed up the team's rhythm. For better or worse, he's linked to DeShawn Stevenson and his trash-talking, though I still am not convinced that DeShawn's words made a significant difference in the series or that Arenas did much to fuel the fire (all he said was the team wanted to play Cleveland). He decided on his own once again to sit out Game 5, only the most important game of the season.
I could go on, but I think everyone gets the point. His image was shattered, no doubt, and there were questions about his maturity.
To me, though, there's a major difference between image and performance. It's kind of like how Dennis Rodman was chastised for being such a lunatic off the court by those who worried it would make a major difference in his play on the court, yet he may have been the best role player of all time. One's image is always a flawed sense of both their reality and their basketball abilities. Nobody really knows Gilbert Arenas, much less bloggers like myself. I never really cared about what he says in the press or what he does with his free time, so long as he doesn't jeopardize his game or his teammates (and I'm not talking about guarantees). (I love True Hoop, but why is the second part of this post titled this way?) Essentially, what I'm saying is that I don't really have a problem with Arenas badmouthing Milwaukee, for example.
The problem, of course, is that Arenas' image did affect his teammates and his game this season. It affected his game in the sense that he never would have re-injured his knee if he approached rehabilitation like any normal athlete. It's effect on his teammates is debatable, but there's written evidence that it pissed off Antawn Jamison during the playoffs. (Calling Arenas a cancer, of course, is silly because there's almost no evidence that Arenas' teammates have asked him to tone down, save for that column). Then, of course, there's the effect of Arenas' eccentricity on Eddie Jordan. Before the season even started, Arenas was upset at his coach, though it seemed he had gotten over that. Arenas' unconventinality caused him to both insert himself into the lineup (against Milwaukee at the end of the season) AND remove himself from active duty (Game 5) without his coach knowing well before game time. That's a huge sign of disrespect.
To his credit, though, Arenas seems to understand the distinction, judging from his press conference comments today. If we're looking for a "maturity growth" in Gilbert, that's the distinction that needs to be made clear. Gilbert shouldn't stop being Gilbert, he should just be Gilbert while respecting those he works with.
So unless one wants to rehash the debate about his new contract (which you're free to do, I just won't make my case again) that leaves the on-court Gilbert Arenas to discuss. Obviously, any future success is tied to his knee rehab. So far, he seems to be getting it right, and so long as he does, there shouldn't be any problems. He should have his explosion back, and even if he doesn't, it might encourage him to use fewer possessions to help the team's rhythm.
Now, to the question of how Arenas needs to adjust. My position has always been that he doesn't need to change as much as some are saying. To rehash: the Wizards treaded water (say it how it is, folks) this season because their defense was better up until mid-January, Brendan Haywood finally broke out, Caron Butler improved his efficiency and shooting range and not necessarily his usage, Antawn Jamison devoted himself to rebounding and post play and the role players provided a major lift. Defensively, Arenas is certainly terrible, but he's hardly the only one who stunk on that end in year's past (and besides, the Wizards weren't much better defensively anyway). The Wizards did not stay where they were because of things like "better ball movement" or "less antics." ("Better ball movement" just means they went to more half-court Princeton sets, and the Princeton can look beautiful if properly executed). Looking at the list of things that made a difference this season, it's hard to believe that Arenas' absense could be directly responsible for all of them. Perhaps the simple answer is that the rest of the team improved their own games.
Automatically, Arenas' presence is going to improve several things. For one, it'll give the Wizards the ability to fast break and strike at any point. Without Arenas, the Wizards almost exclusively played in half-court Princeton sets, and no team saw their pace change nearly as much as the Wizards' did from 2007 to 2008. That's good because the majority of the Wizards' key rotation players know the Princeton extremely well, having practiced it for at least two years, but it's bad because once a team figures out how to stop it, there's nobody who can create other than Butler, who struggled with the role at times during the season. More importantly, Arenas, so long as he's healthy, provides a guy who can create offense out of nothing, mostly by getting to the free throw line. Getting to the line is something Butler has never been capable of doing like Arenas can.
That said, however, it would help if Arenas ended fewer possessions. His usage rate has climbed significantly since Larry Hughes left in 2005, culminating in a crazy 31.4 rate in 2007. Not surprisingly, 2006/07 was also Arenas' worst shooting season since his first year in D.C. in 2003/04. With all the individual improvement of the guys around him, Arenas doesn't need to take so many shots. He can rely on others to carry the load, which should make him fresher defensively. Mind you, I'm not saying he should pass more necessarily (I think his passing is fine. Not great, but it's okay), I'm saying he should not end as many possessions with pull-up 18-footers with 16 on the shot clock. Run the offense a bit and you'll get something better.
He also needs to improve defensively, but that was always the case, and really the entire team needs to improve defensively.
Otherwise, he should be himself. Don't play passively, because he'll take himself out of the game. Still be Gilbert off the court, but don't let your eccentricity undermine your game, your teammates or the coach. End fewer possessions and allow yourself to use the Princeton to make your life easier.
See, I think Arenas is capable of doing anything offensively. He can take over games, but he can also lay low when he wants to. His passing skills are underrated and he knows how to cut in the Princeton. He can hit jumpers from anywhere on the floor and he can drive to the basket and finish at any angle.
The challenge now is to do all those things at the right time during the flow of the game. It's the challenge every superstar faces at some point. How Arenas fares with it will determine whether re-upping him was the right move.
JakeTheSnake: I suppose when you look back at Gilbert's season, you really need to start back last June when he decided to announce that he was going to opt out of his contract at the end of the season. Up until that point Gilbert was the lovable, high-scoring guard with the weird quirks and the funny blog that brought the Wizards back into the playoff picture. Once he made it clear that he was looking to get a better contract, suddenly he became a shotjacking cancer that can't get past the first round.
Of course, his performance this season didn't do much to change anyone's opinion of him in one way or the other. There simply isn't any evidence from this year that you can use to make a judgment on him one way or another. The injuries and the lack of PT with the rest of the team was just too much. With an off-season to get healthy, he should be able to take care of both issues. Even if his knee robs him of some of his burst, I'm confident that he'll be able to adjust the rest of his game to accommodate for that shortcoming.
Why so confident? Well, I've got a few reasons:
- I write at Gilbertology, I have to be confident.
- From the little we saw last season, Gilbert showed that he could still the run the court well, so he's still a threat on the fast break, even if he doesn't have the same explosive burst in the half-court that he once did.
- Despite his injuries, Gilbert posted the best rebound and assist percentages during his time with the Wizards this season. The summer should give him ample time to get back in the flow with everyone and bring his shooting percentages back to what we're used to.
- The third time is the charm with rehab. Right?
Certainly, Gilbert's season wasn't one to remember. He couldn't hit shots, he wasn't in rhythm offensively or defensively, and occasionally he could be a distraction. But I'm not going to fret over an injury plagued season as we move forward. In a lot of ways, Gilbert finds himself in the same spot that Amare Stoudemire did a couple of years ago. Both players had knee problems that robbed them of most of their season while their teams continued to play well without them, leading people to ask if they were better off without them. When Amare returned, he lost a little bit of his athleticism, but it made him a more complete player. I think you'll see that Gilbert will follow in suit.
Truthaboutit: This past season provided me, along with others, a lion's share of negative thoughts about Gilbert Arenas. Unfortunately, many of those others allowed such ideas to consume the previous good will built by Agent Zero to the point where they no longer wanted Gilbert on their team. I will not allow myself to forget what I've learned from the past.
For one, I'm a believer in Gilbert Arenas. He came from humble beginnings and has successfully overcome every real and perceived slight handed down upon him. I remember seeing Gilbert Arenas play live in college from the opponent's end of the court way back in December of 2000. That day, Mississippi State defeated 10th-ranked Arizona, in Tuscon, in 'Zona's own Fiesta Bowl Basketball Classic tournament, for the first time in its 16 year history. That Wildcat team featured the likes of Arenas, Richard Jefferson, Jason Gardner, Loren Woods, Luke Walton, Eugene "High Socks & 'Fro" Edgerson, and team leading scorer, Michael Wright. Gilbert dropped 14 points, but I barely remember him being on the court......he surely didn't live up to scouting report expectations. Gilbert Arenas? Who's that guy? Lo and behold.....almost seven years later.......I'm writing blog letters to the guy.
Even back in December of '07, when the Wizards were 8-5 and I was imploring for Gilbert to learn from his striving teammates, negativity filled the air, especially on the Washington Post's Wizards Insider. The Wizards are no doubt better without Gilbert Arenas and Ernie Grunfeld should immediately get rid of the bum for a bag of nickels and a pouch of Big League Chew......I'm paraphrasing what "they" were saying. The argument continued until the end of the 07-08 season and beyond. Should I get into it now? Nope, not gonna do it.
I'm glad to have Gilbert Arenas back on my hometown team. As much as I was frustrated with the antics, the distractions, the B.S. talking, the non-communication with Eddie Jordan, I always wanted Arenas to return to DC.....I was still going to vote for Nacho.
As recounted on Bullets Forever, most DC blogger/MSM types are amicable towards the resigning of Arenas...even though all could agree on desires for Gilbert to take even less money. The outsiders, they critically predict years of mediocrity for the Wizards as a result of the new six-year $111 million commitment. Eff 'em.....they're not with us and their not joining us. And those insiders....fans of the Bullets/Wizards....who were (and still are) against the return of Gil?....Oh well. I'm sure they'll claim that they had a seat on the bandwagon from the beginning if the team is doing well, and if not, they will be the first to proclaim their clairvoyance with a well placed "I told you so." How convenient.
I would be disregarding natural human instinct if I said that I didn't have doubts about giving so much money to a player recovering from a couple knee surgeries. But Gil is a hard worker (if anything, too hard as he displayed in overdoing rehab after the first surgery), and the field of medicine has advanced as the devastating consequences of knee surgery have decreased.
I'd rather take a chance on Arenas than deal with the heartache and regret of him being a star somewhere else. I may not be as perpetually sanguine as the DC Optimist, but I do anticipate a bright future for these Washington Wizards. I've got high hopes that Arenas has learned more this past season than he ever has from being part of a team before. Hope that he's acquired a balance between killer instinct and the ability to defer, a balance between antics and seriousness. Hope that he's heeded the words of leadership put forth by Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison towards the end of the season. Hope that Gilbert Arenas is a winner and not just another performer.
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Superb Analysis from PM.
We can’t forget that Gilbert really is capable of doing anything offensively. He DRIVES to the basket. That is so valuable in today’s game: Lebron would be just another player if he didn’t drive to the basket. He’s not that great of a shooter, but Gil is.
I’m kind of anxious to see how the injury heals. I can remember where I was and what I was doing when I heard Gil would be out for 3 months (or whatever it was) early this past season. However, as Truthaboutit pointed out, he’s worth the gamble. I totally agree.
by se7en on Jul 23, 2008 3:43 AM EDT 0 recs
We Are All Fans Here
And those insiders….fans of the Bullets/Wizards….who were (and still are) against the return of Gil?....Oh well. I’m sure they’ll claim that they had a seat on the bandwagon from the beginning if the team is doing well, and if not, they will be the first to proclaim their clairvoyance with a well placed “I told you so.” How convenient.
I feel the need to clarify my position on Arenas, lest my position against resigning and keeping him this offseason be misconstrued to mean some sort of disloyalty to the Wizards franchise. I’ve been a Bullets/Wizards fan since the 1989-90 season. I’ve been cheering for this franchise through the good times and the bad. Before Arenas arrived in Washington, times were mostly bad. I hope no one thinks that I’m not grateful to Arenas for everything he has done for our team, because that had nothing to do with me not wanting to retain his services. Gilbert is a very good player bordering on greatness. His skills are an asset to the Wizards, and I believe he makes most of his teammates better (save Caron). The Wizards are certainly not better without him, and in many areas they are noticeably worse. He is an exciting and fun player to watch, and I will be cheering wholeheartedly for him this upcoming season.
Yet, first and foremost, I am a fan of the Wizards more than I am a fan of Arenas. I argued for signing and trading Arenas because I thought that would make the team better able to contend for a title, assuming we got back a key piece to fill one our team’s biggest needs. But no NBA team is currently employing me to make these kinds of decisions, so I most certainly can be wrong about this. If I am, I’ll gladly admit to being wrong, because all I really care about is this team’s success. Of course I’ll claim my seat on the bandwagon, because I don’t feel I ever got off of it. I don’t think any Bullets/Wizards fan can be rightfully accused of being a “Johnny Come Lately” when they were rooting for the team back when Don “Bye bye, Miss American Pie” MacLean was our best player.
If I’m right, I won’t rub my past opinions in everyone’s faces with an “I told you so,” because what’s the point in that? We are where we are, and it is what it is. I’m not going to cry over any more spilled milk, at least not this offseason. I hope Arenas fully recovers from his knee problems and contributes just as much, if not more, to this team as he did before his injury. I hope that the rest of the team continues to play well around him. I hope that Caron Butler learns how to keep his performance just as high with Arenas on the court as he did without him. And I hope that all of the little things come together for this team in a perfect storm of unexpected success, to make up for not making the same kind of big moves that brought success to Boston and Los Angeles this past season.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
by cuppettcj on Jul 23, 2008 8:42 AM EDT 0 recs
To be honest.....
The dedicated fans, like yourself, who come to this blog are not necessarily in the category about which I wrote.
So, while your opinion that the Wizards should have signed and traded Arenas is more than just….. I’m simply not sure if that would have benefited the franchise as getting fair value in return seemed to be an improbability.
Bringing Gil back is a risk, but I think Grunfeld is actually hedging other risks by doing so.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on
Jul 23, 2008 1:22 PM EDT
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for the record
while i wasn’t on this blog then, i started getting annoyed with arenas back in early ‘07, before all the drama of last season. basically i think that as good as he was in december 2006, that’s how bad he was in february 2007. i thought the hype was going to his head. so when he talks about toning down some of the nonsense, i hope he’s thinking about some of the ON THE COURT nonsense, and i hope he’s thinking back to the 2006-2007 season and not just last year. gilbert: the hibachi isn’t always cooking, and your teammates are pretty damn good.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Jul 23, 2008 1:15 PM EDT 0 recs
Also...
My opinion on bringing Gil back doesn’t mean that the guy isn’t on a bit of thin ice with me.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on
Jul 23, 2008 1:23 PM EDT
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I'm not sure what you mean by "on-court nonsense"
If you’re talking about toning down his usage a bit (i.e. shooting less), it’s suggested here. I do think that he’s a more efficient offensive player than people make it seem because he gets to the free throw line a lot, so I don’t really want to see him completely remodel his game. It would be nice if he shot a little less, for sure.
If you’re talking about his guarantees, I think the only time it really affected his game was that first Portland game in February, when he went out and shot 1-10 and criticized Eddie Jordan for making him focus on defense after the game (which I think you’re speaking to). That was out of line. Otherwise, he did drop 54 on the Suns, and while he guaranteed a victory over Boston to start this season, Boston was going to win that game anyway.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Pradamaster on
Jul 23, 2008 1:43 PM EDT
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i don't want to see him stringing together games like this:
Feb 28 MIA L 83-92 3-18 16.7
Feb 27 @NJN L 101-113 7-25 28.0
Feb 25 @MIN L 94-98 4-22 18.2
that was after the portland debacle. let’s look at the games wrapped around the portland game:
Feb 14 @PHI W 92-85 8-26 30.8
Feb 11 POR L 73-94 3-15 20.0
Feb 7 SAS L 83-110 10-24 41.7
Feb 5 SEA W 118-108 4-14 28.6
Feb 3 LAL L 102-118 9-29 31.0
they got wins against horrible seattle and philly squads in that run, but that’s about 8 games in a single month where the franchise player didn’t appear to be helping his team much.
players are going to go through slumps every now and again, but here’s the deal: after he dropped 60 on kobe, KB said gil was taking lousy shots (which is why gil started saying “quality shots” instead of hibachi when he shot it). at the time, i was like “whatever kobe, you’re just pissed you got lit up.” unfortunately, once gil cooled off, the shots really were lousy. and gil had gotten on such a roll that i personally didn’t think he was willing to do other things to help get a W once the hibachi cooled off, i.e., play defense, create for your teammates, dominate the ball less, etc. to me, he got so good at what he was doing, he became one-dimensional. and when that dimension wasn’t going for him, he wasn’t doing much positive out there. and that’s what i think needs to change.
it’s one thing to shoot 34% for a month. it’s another to do it taking ~20 shots a game. it’s yet another thing to do it and not play defense. it’s crossing the line to get pissed at your coach when he calls you out for it. and that’s all on the court.
by DarrellWalkerFan on
Jul 23, 2008 11:32 PM EDT
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I mean, yeah
So by “on-court nonsense,” you’re basically saying he shouldn’t play like crap and call out his coach. Calling out his coach is on-court immaturity, like I conceded above. Not playing like crap should always be the expectation. That’s much simpler than “on-court nonsense.” If anything, it cements the claim that he needs to shoot less, where I don’t think you and I are in disagreement.
It was a bad stretch, but I think my point was more that linking that to his guarantees seems tenuous. The L.A. game happened two months before. The decree of the guarantee happened in that offseason.
Considering the way Gilbert had been playing in December, a slump like that was certainly not out of the realm of possibility. The best way to put it is that Gilbert was shooting too much in December just as he was in February, but he was making shots in December. I don’t really think his mindset fundamentally changed…he was the same player as he was all season. The problems you cite (defense, knowing how to channel his inner Hibachi) have been challenges his entire Wizards career.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Pradamaster on
Jul 24, 2008 12:08 AM EDT
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i think you mostly agree
but does gilbert? that’s a big question.
and it’s more than just “he shouldn’t play like crap.” i’m making an argument that his approach leads to him going through stretches like that, just as it leads to stretches like december. while it is amazing when he goes through stretches like december, it’s a double-edged sword.
i’m also making an argument that if he continues that approach, on the court, the team isn’t going anywhere.
lastly, i’m of the opinion that, if i’m right, and if gilbert actually comes to understand this, that it’s going to be a difficult adjustment for him to make, more difficult than people think, especially when people love him so much for being the hibachi and being amongst the league leaders in scoring. again, that’s assuming i’m right, but moreso, it’s assuming gil gets it.
i do think he is worth the risk, but, whether he wants to be or not, he’s gonna be our floor leader, our franchise player, and i expect better things from him in the future, on the court. i wish that in his press conference, instead of saying “EG and EJ and Abe” are going to lead us, he said “i’m going to lead this team. and i’m going to be more than just the hibachi on the court, i’m going to bring a complete floor game to this team, and we’re going to surprise people. rather than just, we were top 5 when we were healthy, so we’re going to do what we did then and hope for health.” i’m hoping they, and gil, get better then they were then. i think it’s necessary to accomplish the goal gil is putting out there.
by DarrellWalkerFan on
Jul 24, 2008 10:03 AM EDT
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prada, reread your column above
you said it perfectly, i agree with what you are saying entirely.
i think my question was, in my initial post on this thread, does gilbert agree?
i phrased it as a question about the line from his press conference where he said he needed to cut out some of the hype and some of the nonsense. i think everyone agrees on that. but again, does cutting out some of the hype and some of the nonsense include some of the crap he was doing on the court? does he understand he needs to get better? that’s my question.
you said it above:
His usage rate has climbed significantly since Larry Hughes left in 2005, culminating in a crazy 31.4 rate in 2007. Not surprisingly, 2006/07 was also Arenas’ worst shooting season since his first year in D.C. in 2003/04.
i think an attitude, an approach, the hype, contributed to that happening. and that’s mainly what i would like to see him make an adjustment on. he’s talented enough that i hope everything else will fall into place once he starts down that path.
but my issue is that right now i’m not sure he’s going to start down that path. i’ll have to see it to believe it. i think truthaboutit hit on how it’s going to be a matter of faith in him to do so.
by DarrellWalkerFan on
Jul 24, 2008 10:33 AM EDT
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One Thing to Consider
I remember that season very well. Gilbert was on fire all of December and he kept it up and settled into a nice groove in January. Then Antawn went down at the end of January and was out all of February. That meant that other teams could afford to double Gil a lot more. It also resulted in Gil thinking he had to do more to make up for the loss of all of Antawn’s production on offense. I honestly don’t think Gil’s February would have been nearly as bad had Antawn stayed healthy. As it was, it was a huge drop-off in production from him.
Gil needs to rely on more than just his 2 other All-Star teammates. Luckily, he has a much better supporting cast heading into this season. So if Caron or Antawn do go down for an extended period of time, hopefully Gil will be confident enough in his other teammates to not hog the ball so much.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
by cuppettcj on
Jul 24, 2008 8:14 AM EDT
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yup
let’s hope no one gets hurt, and gil relies on his teammates more.
by DarrellWalkerFan on
Jul 24, 2008 10:06 AM EDT
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QUALITY SHOTS!
I think the point is that it’s okay for Gilbert to go slumping with his shots…..as long as the shots are quality and within the offense (of course, I’ve got nothing against the occasional well-timed heat-check, or opportunistic shot to get him going).
I think we all can potentially feel better about Gilbert’s shots if he improves his distribution tactics and played some defense.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on
Jul 24, 2008 10:59 AM EDT
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swagger jacker
wow, the maker of the video you posted swagger jacked my mix.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nxeIZUFUbA
haha sorry to go off topic.
by Azian Zero on Jul 23, 2008 1:36 PM EDT 0 recs
from the horse's mouth
Arenas seems genuinly interested in helping out the team. I’m excited to see what he can do. Watch this video of an interview with him and hear what he has to say:
http://comcastsportsnet.tv/common/global_flash/player/spe.swf?flv=vidcast_1318&sid=102&d=comcastsportsnet.tv” quality=”high” wmode=”transparent” type=”application/x-shockwave-flash” width=”320” height=”280”
by dcsportsfan on Jul 23, 2008 2:50 PM EDT 0 recs
Cuppettjc, you hit on my point
Been awhile since I have been on here and what I would wonder about the 2007 season is the Arenas usage rate with Jamison and Butler on the floor vs. the usage rate without one of them. Isn’t it more likely that Arenas’ usage rate went way up during those times without Jamison or Butler as cupp pointed out.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Jul 25, 2008 2:04 PM EDT 0 recs












