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"The ball is in his court now:" Day 2 of the Gilbert Arenas watch

More and more, it's looking like there's no way Gilbert Arenas is taking that Golden State offer.  Ivan's story today says "it did not appear yesterday that Arenas was seriously contemplating the offer," and he also quotes an anonymous source who said "he's going to be here."  ESPN says it's a "virtual certainty" he'll be back, and Antawn Jamison is already talking like Gilbert is on his team.

The holdup is over whether Gilbert is willing to take less money to help the team maintain some form of cap flexibility.  The reality is that we're talking about three or four million dollars under the luxury tax instead of no room, but it appears that Gilbert is taking Ernie's request seriously.  As mentioned yesterday, Gilbert wants to see the latest salary cap figures before he makes a decision, which clearly indicates taking less is on his mind. 

Adding more weight to that is this quote:

Arenas is close to agreeing to a deal with the Wizards, the source said, but he likely will take less than the max out of a desire to give the team more flexibility to re-sign Mason and/or another free agent this summer or future years.

Arenas, according to multiple sources, told the team he wants to wait until the NBA releases the salary cap and luxury tax figures for the coming year - which happens July 8. Then after seeing how much money the Wizards have to work with, he will decide how much "to leave on the table to help the team" and agree to a deal.

I'm overjoyed about this, but I'm also a little worried.  What happens when Arenas hears about the new luxury tax and finds out that he'd have to take way less if we want our full mid-level exception?  Because that's what it's going to take to sign James Posey.  I don't anticipate that becoming an issue, but it might.

No matter, because Gilbert's official decision is still days away.  As much as I wish Antawn made a similar concession with his contract, the fact is that Antawn never publicly said he'd take less money for the good of the team.  Gilbert has said that.  Now, we get to see if he's a man of his word.  From all preliminary indications, it sounds like he will be.

For today's thread, I'm curious how everyone feels we approached this negotiation.  This quote from an anonymous player agent in Ivan's article can serve as a jumping-off point.

"They're making it clear that, 'Hey, we love you, we want you here, we didn't lowball you, we made a big offer,' but at the same time, they're putting the onus on him to think about the direction of the franchise," said the agent, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he did want to be quoted speaking about a player who is not his client. "It's an interesting strategy and makes sense when you think about how he is. This way, he can still get way more from them than he can get anywhere else and he can say to the fans, 'Hey, I took less to help the team.' "

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Smart

Ernie Grunfeld is one smart GM.

Stroking Gilbert’s ego with:
1. a continuous message, all year long, that he, Abe and the team wanted Gilbert back
2. Immediately “taking care of ” Jamison (an Arenas demand)
3. Coming right out with a massive Max contract offer
4. The sentimental call from Grandpa Abe – “you’re my guy” Gil…
5. Including Gilbert’s input in the team’s long term strategic planning (by telling him, here’s the MAX contract you wanted; here’s what we need as a team. You let us know what you want us to do… )

It could have gone a completely different way…

EG could have low-balled Arenas right off the bat…. Then the Golden State offer would have received serious consideration from Arenas.

EG could have waited to see what other teams did first…. Arenas could have become disgruntled (no love in DC? – ok fine, I’ll sign where I’m wanted)

My predictions:
Arenas signs with the Wizards for less money – leaving $3Million on the table for this year ($18-20 Million over the life of the contract)... to “help the team”..

Arenas is universally praised as a unique Professional Athlete that put the team before his own monitary gain. (ESPN SportsCenter ta da da – ta da da , SI does an article, Cover of Vogue)

The Wizards start to get some respect from the National media….

Gil’s endorsement deals triple – and he makes $60-90 Million more in endorsements and outside interests over the life of his new contract.

The Wizards finish 50-32…. and are eliminated in the Conference Finals.

by Rook6980 on Jul 2, 2008 12:16 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Haha...

I love it. Very happy with going to the Conference finals, too.

by se7en on Jul 2, 2008 6:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ben

Offering Gil the max also allows Ernie to turn to the fans and say, hey we did all we could, we offered him a max deal. He did not want to be here and left, nothing we can do

Very smart move IMO

by Blatche4MVP on Jul 2, 2008 12:36 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm willing to bet

That that anonymous agent was not Dan Fegan.

by bronco6778 on Jul 2, 2008 12:41 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

unless

you don’t think gil is worth max money, you get tired of his antics, you don’t think he’ll ever play defense, you don’t think he’s a leader, you think he frequently hurts the team when the hibachi isn’t cooking, you worry about his knee and future explosiveness, you don’t like having to baby the guy during a contract signing and throughout the season because of his trust issues, you don’t think it’s worth overpaying jamison just to keep gil around, nor do you appreciate gil making demands on that front, and you realize for that money the fans will get tired of him if he doesn’t mature and have continued big time success on the court so it’s still a huge risk.

all the above is smart if you want to keep the guy, yeah, but you could make an argument that it isn’t smart to keep the guy at any price, especially when you’ve already got a big time player in caron around.

now i know where most everyone on this board stands, but i wanted to make the contrarian argument.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Jul 2, 2008 12:41 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well

I’d like to think we’re more divided than that, but those are all legitimate counter-arguments.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 2, 2008 12:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But

If you let Arenas walk – how do you EVER sell the Wizards to the fans in DC?

Verizon Center would become a tomb…

Talk about a bad business decision….

by Rook6980 on Jul 2, 2008 1:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah

that’s a huge consideration, especially since DC is a fickle nba market.

but i think if the team is successful, with or without gil, the fans will come.

a lot of people were pissed after abe canned mj…

by DarrellWalkerFan on Jul 2, 2008 2:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Precisely

Look at the attendance drop after MJ left….

Washington went from 2nd in the League in Attendance (20,173)
to 21st the NEXT YEAR (15,703 average)

Then Arenas came, and Attendance jumped the next year by 4,000 per game…

With the Injuries, the Wizards have struggled to get the attendance back up – they’re right around 18K now…

The Washington DC fan, by and large, is not like say, Boston, or Chicago… The Washington fan does not come to the game to watch the team…. They come for the player! (Jordan, Arenas)...

Sure, there’s a fan base that follows the team… probably a good chunk of the 15K folks that stuck around after MJ left… those are the hard core fans….

But the rest? The 5 or 6 thousand extra butts that a player like Arenas can put in the seats? Those people are the business types. The Politicians. The pundits. The Washington insiders. They don’t follow a team…. they follow the “drama” ... they’re there for the “hype”...

More importantly – those are the “high rollers” that fund the luxury boxes…. and buy the expensive court side seats… (What, you think Mom and Pop Jones are gonna fork out $15 or $20K for a couple of season tickets? – - – Heck NO, that’s two years of College for one of the kiddies !! )

If Arenas puts 3,000 extra butts in the seats, at an average of $150 per ticket, the Wizards will make an additional $18,900,000 per year (just on ticket sales) – - – That’s $113,400,000 over his 6-year contract – he just paid for himself…!!!

by Rook6980 on Jul 2, 2008 2:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Plus

There are the seats sold that didn’t have butts in them when Gilbert was hurt. Sure the Wiz had already sold them but they need to turn that seat into a meal, drink, jersey and foam finger to get the most out of it. There were too many ‘sold but absent’ tickets this year.

by Jheiser3 on Jul 2, 2008 3:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

Great point about the ticket sales #'s

I always think of how much money my apartment owners must make just from the laundry machines. 2 washers/2 dryers per 16 houses. There are roughly 65 complexes (with 16 houses in each), so that makes approximately 1040 houses total. Round that to 1000 houses. $1.50 a load for washer, same for dryer. Thats $3 for one load of clothes (and the washers are TINY). I wash at least 2 loads a week, but I’m only one person, so I’ll set the average family load at a modest 5 loads a week.

So, in laundry sales, that makes them roughly $180,000 a year. Thats a lot of quarters.

Okay, I had a point to make in all of this. Sometimes a washer breaks. I take my clothes down the street to the laundromat. Yea, it sucks, but its good entertainment. When those washers break, the apartment loses customers. But LUCKILY there are some cool maintenance dudes that work here. They are also good at fixing things and keeping things from breaking.

My POINT is, if Gilbert gets injured, we lose part of that $113.4 mil that he made in ticket sales. BUT if our maintenance men (our TRAINERS), keep Gilbert’s health in check… that would ULTIMATELY be a GREAT thing. Obviously I hope Gilbert is also a little more cautious this summer, but dude also needs some good medical advice.

I guess my point is really, I REALLY, REALLY want Gil to be healthy. And he needs help with that.

Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!

by Evander holyfield on Jul 2, 2008 9:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My Thoughts

I can’t say Ernie is a genius yet, until I see results. Posey is interesting. I assume we’d have to overpay to get him. His stock is higher now then it will ever be.

Question: Does Gil like Posey? I think this will be the determining factor. The ball is certainly in Gil’s court.

by se7en on Jul 2, 2008 6:20 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Again With the "Gilbert Sells Tickets" Argument

I feel the need to refer back to one of my comments. The whole “Gilbert sells tickets” point is baseless. Fans didn’t come after MJ left because the Wizards sucked, not because MJ wasn’t there. If the Wizards had managed to win 50+ games and/or push deep into the playoffs, people would have quickly forgotten about MJ’s stint and jumped on board the bandwagon.

The whole reason MJ or Gil puts fans in the seats is because they are winners. Does anybody honestly think that if the Wizards could improve their team and win more games by not resigning Gil, that the fans will not come out to see a winner? I don’t believe that argument has much merit.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 3, 2008 7:49 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

cuppett

you’re saying MJ didn’t draw fans?! not with you there. and the team wasn’t that good with MJ. it didn’t make the playoffs either year.

my point was the fans came back once the team got good again.

so i agree with you that winning is the more important thing. but some players do draw fans. MJ was definitely one of those players.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Jul 3, 2008 11:10 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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