Numbers that make you say "Duh"
(We've used a lot of cyber-ink on the Dee Brown signing. I promise this is only tangentially related).
The premise of this post is simple. The addition of Dave Hopla to the coaching staff helped the Wizards' shooting this year.
Pretty obvious, right? There's nothing anyone can really quibble about, is there?
Well, there isn't, really. The thesis doesn't change at the end of this post. Still, it's kind of interesting to see how the numbers bear out this conclusion.
As far as I can tell, Hopla brings some sort of magical presence, able to turn any crappy shooter into a very good one. The obvious star pupil is Brendan Haywood, and there are also guys like Roger Mason and DeShawn Stevenson whose shots have improved tremendously during their time in D.C. Going down the roster, is there anyone on this team who looked like a better shooter before last season? The only guy that comes to mind is Antonio Daniels, but he's always been a poor shooter.
One would think that Hopla's tuiledge would be displayed in the team's field goal percentages, but it really isn't. This table kind of blew me away. According to 82Games, the Wizards shot the second-lowest percentage on two-point jumpers in the league. Only Cleveland was worse. Interestingly enough, our biggest strength was actually on shots inside the paint. We had the second-highest percentage despite attempting just 31 percent of our shots inside.
That doesn't look so good for Hopla, but remember that shot selection plays heavily into this equation. Last year, the Wizards were a much more one-dimentional offensive team than in years past. We've heard the phrase "jump-shooting team" tossed around a lot, but this historically has always been problematic. Thanks primairly to Gilbert Arenas, the Wizards were among the league leaders in free throw attempts and the percentage of possessions that ended with free throw attempts. Without Arenas, though, our free throw rate tumbled nearly four percentage points from 2007 to 2008. We were forced to rely more heavily on jumpers because we didn't get to the rim as much.
Yet despite that deficiency, we still managed to keep our shooting percentages level with previous years. Our team-wide effective field goal percenate went from 49.1 in 2007 to 48.9 in 2008. That's an insignificant drop, and it occurred even though we were attempting far fewer free-throw attempts. Possessions that once ended in Arenas forcing his way to the basket for a foul ended in contested jump shots, yet our shooting percentage barely dropped. That's a credit to Hopla.
Still, the best way to measure a shooting coach is looking at free throw percentages. Here, there's nobody contesting the shot. It's just the player and their free throw stroke. Look at the differences from 2007 to 2008.
| Player | 2006/07 FT% | 2007/08 FT% | Difference |
| Andray Blatche | 61.2% | 69.5% | +8.3% |
| Caron Butler | 86.3% | 90.1% | +3.8% |
| Antonio Daniels | 83.2% | 77.6% | -5.6 |
| Brendan Haywood | 54.8% | 73.5% | +18.7% |
| Antawn Jamison | 73.6% | 76% | +2.4% |
| Roger Mason | 87.5% | 87.3% | -0.2% |
| Darius Songaila | 85.2% | 91.8% | +6.8% |
| DeShawn Stevenson | 70.4% | 79.7% | +9.3% |
Hopla's work with Haywood has been well-documented, but look at his impact on the other key players on the team. Only Daniels' free throw percentage dropped significantly last year. Besides Haywood, Andray Blatche, DeShawn Stevenson and Darius Songaila saw their percentages rise significantly. Butler went from an outstanding free throw shooter to one of the very best in the league, and even Jamison, a veteran who has probably been through a zillion shooting coaches, saw his percentage rise.
Not too shabby for a shooting coach, ey?
3 recs |
19 comments
Comments
All that Ho[o]pla
That guy has done wonders for some of our players. A fantastic shooting coach, whom Gil attributes his beautiful shot to.
Plus, Hawyood increases his FT% by almost 20%! That is remarkable. Caron’s shot has been looking very pretty these days as well. His 3P% increased by almost 11%. All our guys seem to be shooting better.
by se7en on Jul 13, 2008 1:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That stat about our effective FG%
Would lead a certain poster on another blog to say how the team does need Gilbert etc. I look at that stat and think that if Gilbert is healthy next year and we zoom back up the charts in those free-throw stats you mentioned, what a potent offense the Wizards could put on the floor (and the type of offense that induces a lot of foul trouble for the opposing team).
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Jul 13, 2008 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Can we score 110 pts/game next year? We just might
Gilbert’s presence on offense next year is going to improve our team shooting a bunch next year. Double teams and team defense focused more on Gil is going to create MUCH better shots for our role players, players who had to create their own shots last year. Pressure off of Deshawn, Darius, Antawn, and Dee Brown on the perimeter is going to get them better looks at the basket (although I wish none of our shots came from outside – outside of Gil, Caron, and the occasional Deshawn trey).
Gilbert becomes more of a 50/50 shoot/pass point, rather than a huge scorer….....?
I like the Gil who wants to create lots of shots for the team, as well as himself.
OK… make that 60/40.
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on Jul 13, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
This post goes on to confirm that:
Pace, Shot Clock Usage, and The Value of Gilbert Arenas
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on Jul 14, 2008 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So....
if our FG% inside the paint is 2nd in the league, but ppg inside the paint is mid table, does it follow that we should be dumping it down low (or driving to the hoop) more often? Also, it is probably worth mentioning that AD gutted out a lot of games with a hurt wrist. I don’t think you can ignore that fact when analyzing the decrease in his FT%
by AndNone on Jul 13, 2008 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's definitely something I'd talk to Gilbert about
I’d show him the stat and say something to that effect. Jamison in particular needs more touches on the blocks, because when Gilbert goes into Hibachi mode, Jamison tends to channel his inner perimeter gunner.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Jul 13, 2008 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haywood
I believe strongly that the improved free throw percentage was the most important aspect of Brendan Haywood’s improvement this year. Even more so than the added playing time. It just seemed (from my upper deck vantage point) to make him a more aggressive and confident player on the offensive end. As a fan, 2 missed free throws are deflating. It must be doubly so to a player. Essentially, its a turnover. Seemed like he was more aggressive taking offensive rebounds back to the basket knowing that being fouled was a good thing rather than a bad thing.
Point being, that I think the results of Hopla’s (and Haywood’s) work went beyond an extra point or 2 per game average. I think it made Haywood a better player overall.
by hotplate on Jul 13, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point
His confidence must have been BOOSTED from shooting the ball that well.
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on Jul 13, 2008 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I REALLY wish Caron would get to the line more
Shooting 90% makes it inexcusable to shoot 4.5 ft’s a game… let alone the fact that he was our main guy on offense most of the time with Gil out.
Antawn made it to the line 438 times, at 5.5 attempts/game. He played 79 games vs. Caron’s 58, but switch their attempts between the two of them and those are points we need in close games. The difference between Antawn and Caron getting to the line… Antawn’s go-to move… his sweet flip shot on the block. It’s a thing of beauty to see Antawn get the ball on the block and turn towards the baseline, because the ball is either going in, or he’s drawing the foul. I actually wish there was a rule where if Antawn got the ball on the wing, he must swing it to the corner, get a screen and then roll to the post to get an entry pass. Imagine how much more efficient his shots would be with nothing but flip shots!
Which brings me to my main point – Caron needs a go to move – that gets him to the line. His step back jumper is sweet with a cherry on top, but I want to see this dude take the ball to the rim more. Get in your triple threat, take your step back j about 2/5 times. But take the ball to the rim the other 2/5 times. BTH gets the ball down low about 1/5 times Caron gets the ball on the wing, sorry.
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on Jul 13, 2008 6:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh yea, compare Caron to Richard Jefferson
Who shot 679 FT’s last year. That makes it 8.2/game.
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on Jul 13, 2008 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
That’s the next step for Butler. For someone that athletic, he needs to find his way to the free throw line a lot more than he does. It’s the one thing holding him back from being a true No. 1 offensive option.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Jul 13, 2008 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did Gilbert's absence affect Caron's FT attempt totals?
I would’ve thought Caron would’ve gotten to the line more when Gilbert was healthy, but I don’t know.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Jul 14, 2008 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so.
One of the few knocks I have on Caron is that he tends to get a little passive when Gil’s in the game. I think the best thing that can happen to him this year is if he does become more aggressive, even if Gil’s in the game.
The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.
by mamemimo on Jul 14, 2008 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interestingly
Butler’s free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt, times 100) was higher in 07 with Gilbert than it was last season.
Honestly, I find that baffling and, in a way, somewhat unacceptable. At least when Gilbert’s in the game, you have a built-in excuse for not driving to the basket. Without him in there is when that rate should have spiked.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Jul 14, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But it is easier to drive to the bucket
When Gilbert is drawing so much defensive attention. I wonder if worry about injury might be why Caron has been so shy about driving to the tin.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Jul 14, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True....
I’d also like to add that teams began to key on Caron more….I wonder when some site is going to have a stat for how many double teams a player receives.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on Jul 14, 2008 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
Some it is how he gets his shots. One of my pet frustrations was Eddie simply giving Caron the ball on the wing and letting him go one on one. There was no weakside motion, it was Caron off a baseline screen. Then he’d hold the ball for a beat and make a move, usually ending up in a jumpshot. The baseline screener usually stayed right where he was for the screen so any penetration by Caron was somewhat pointless. Spacing was too close to get him to the rim or create room for a pass and layup.
I’d like to see him come off more curls and screens on the move.
The difference Hopla made was immediate to my eyes. Caron was ridiculous early int he season from 3. Deshawn made an adjustment in his stroke as the season progressed too. Daniels got this far with that line drive he wasn’t changing. if only these two had crossed paths years ago.
BH’s confidence was definitely up due to his knew stroke. A trip to the line was no longer like a trip to dentist. His hook got better too. If Kendrick Perkins can make a living off of little hooks so can BH.
by Jheiser3 on Jul 14, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With you all the way
I’d like to see Caron’s short post game develop…..attempts in that area also provide the opportunity for FTs, not as much as driving to the hoop, but still, the closer you work to the basket, the better.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on Jul 14, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post, which begs the question.....
Hopla received a two-year contract before the 07-08 season, wouldn’t he be deserving of an extension? At this point, I’m almost afraid the Wiz would lose him after next year…unless he has some sort of ties to the DC area….oh yea, he grew up in Baltimore.
Still, I’m not too concerned with the short leash of giving the another assistants one-year contracts, but Hopla seems to be the tangible (to the public at least) exception.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on Jul 14, 2008 7:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by 
















