Roster crunching

by Mike Prada on Jul 10, 2008 2:01 PM EDT in Free Agency Comment 38 comments

Assuming the Jazz don't match the Wizards' contract offer, Dee Brown becomes the 14th person on the Wizards' roster with at least a partially guaranteed contract.

Why is that significant? Remember this:

I don't see the Wizards carrying more than 14 players into the regular season.

Hmm...this is interesting. There are several possibilities here.

Ernie has changed his tune, or Ivan is wrong about his hunch: Perhaps, but it's not always the best strategy to carry 15 players. That's the most any team is allowed to have at one time, and it limits one's options if they want to make a roster upgrade during the season. Having 14 guys gives you flexibility, in case there's something that comes up during the season. Like, if someone gets bought out, the Wizards won't need to cut anyone to get him.

Brown's spot on the roster isn't guaranteed: It's possible the Wizards are only doing this so Brown can play in the Summer League, where they'll evaluate him for the roster in training camp. Even though Brown played in Turkey last year, the Jazz still technically own his rights, so it's possible this was the only way he could play for the Wizards in the Summer League.

But this doesn't make much sense to me. If Brown was a free agent, why is he restricted? And why offer him a two-year deal if the point was to audition him for Summer League? There has to be something I'm missing if this is a legitimate possibility.

Someone's getting traded: This is a possibility we've discussed before, but it makes even more sense now. Considering how close we are to the luxury tax, this would be a trade that either yields nothing in return or it yields one player for two. My guess is the guy traded would be one of our young bigs, preferably Pecherov. That way, we not only eliminate a position of surplus, but we also create more room under the luxury tax to go after a small forward.

Finally, there's the most distressing possibility, at least as far as this season goes. That is...

We're done making moves: We have a 14-man roster, and we don't have much room under the luxury tax, so I could see Ernie saying that we didn't need to sign anybody else this offseason. That would be pretty upsetting, because we desperately need another small forward to play behind Caron Butler. If Ernie decides he'd rather have Dee Brown than someone like Matt Barnes, I can understand Wizards fans' frustrations.

Hopefully, it's one of the top three scenarios. I like Dee Brown for this price, because he's a pest defensively and can handle the ball, but I don't like Dee Brown as our only addition this offseason.

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Is there a history of Ernie doing creative moves to get under the salary cap?

I like the suggestion of positioning to trade Pecherov, but I can’t remember the last time Ernie packaged off someone we had drafted, with the exception of Navarro who never set foot in the Wiz practice facility. If Ernie is “content” with this team as presently constituted, then I am extremely worried that it will be one and done once again. There appears to be a certain laxness in the Wiz front office right now, it has been 2-3 years of “the Wiz are quiet on draft night” and the “Wiz will not be much of player on the FA market.” I understand this is in large part due to the Cap, but jeez, throw me a bone Ernie, or at least a Matt Barnes…

Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!

by ledellforlife on Jul 10, 2008 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ernie's not building for this year

He knows the team’s not winning a title this year. He’s not getting stuck under another AD/Etan/Songaila contract. McGuire will get a lot of time at the 3 this year and we’ll know where he stands after an 82+game evaluation period. It beats tying 3-5 years up in someone who may wind up riding the bench in two seasons while he clogs up the cap.

Yeah, the thought makes me throw up in my mouth a little too, but tell me Donnie Walsh wouldn’t trade situations.

by bronco6778 on Jul 10, 2008 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But this proposed contract won't clog up the cap

We’re talking about a two year deal for about 2.5 million per season. That’s less than half the value of Etan and AD and it’s about half the value of Songaila’s deal.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 10, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, it won't

But my point was that a contract for a Matt Barnes has the potential to do so.

by bronco6778 on Jul 10, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's the question

Can we land Matt Barnes for about $2.5 mil a year for 2-3 years? If yes, then not signing him is a mistake. If it takes more than that, it’d be a mistake to sign him. I know his name is getting thrown around alot, and I think he’d probably be a good fit on the court (don’t know about him in the locker room), but he’s not the kind of player we’re gonna go over the luxury tax for.

The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.

by mamemimo on Jul 10, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he takes us over the luxury tax

I agree it’s a huge mistake.

This thread, though, isn’t about contracts as much as it is about numbers. No matter what, this proposed backup small forward has to fit under the luxury tax. There are several possibilities out there, with Barnes just being the one tossed around the most outside of this site.

We have the money to sign somebody to a cap-friendly deal. The question posed here is whether we have the roster space to do it, and if not, whether that means somebody’s getting traded.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 10, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I mean, yeah

Barnes is just an example though. There are several others on our radar that could fill a similar role for that 2.5 million salary.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 10, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dont give up on Pesh

I think the plan is that Ernie hopes that one of our three 7 footers will develop, and it too early to give up on one of them. Pesh was in the NBA for the first time, and missed the first 32 games, its hard enough to rebound after missing that much time, but as a rookie? give him a break

What I dont understand is, Abe you cant take you money to the grave, why is there such a fear of the luxury tax? Just save the money we got paid out of the luxury tax from last year and use out MLE to make a move. We have to get a back up SF, not because the FA brings the talent we need to win it all, but because it allows Caron to not have to log as many minutes, and hopefully be healthy for the Playoffs. We need a fresh Gil, Butler, and Twan for the playoffs, and to do that we need depth

by Blatche4MVP on Jul 10, 2008 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But why spend the full MLE on a backup small forward

When you can spend a third of that on someone to do all of the same things? Then, we can avoid the tax anyway.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 10, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Y

If only going over the threshold guaranteed success. It doesn’t. I don’t feel the pressure to pay one guy 5Mil and cost the organization 5 in salary, 2.5 in the bonus we don’t get and 2.5 more in dollar for dollar tax for going over to play 20-25 minutes, score 8, get 4 boards and a few other assorted stats when we can get a similar player for 1-2Mil.

by Jheiser3 on Jul 10, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a fan

I don’t care about the tax. There, I said it. At the end of the day, this team will sink or swim on the Big Three being healthy. If they’re not, we ain’t going nowhere. If they are, I think this team as constituted is a top team in the East.

Professional sports is about winning. Excuses don’t mean anything.

I also suspect that Ernie is not done. We might see a trade before all is said and done. And I hope that Eddie will be more flexible in his lineups to give the young guys some time. He didn’t trust them at the end of the season or in the playoffs, and that hurt us badly.

I wouldn’t know Barnes from Boomje Boomje. We drafted players who need to step up and play. We have three superstars who can outscore any team in the league on a given night. We should spend as much time scrutinizing the training staff as we do free agent third-string small forwards (although that’s not as fun).

Gilbert Arenas is a star. Caron Butler is a star. Antawn Jamison is a star. We have PLENTY of guys who can fill roles. They need to go out and get it done.

by Unselds on Jul 10, 2008 3:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think I quite agree with that assessment

You can’t “win now” while “having one eye towards the future.” By resigning Arenas and Jamison, the statement is that the Wiz ARE attempting to win now. But unless we add another veteran piece to give us experienced depth, we will keep running into this Groundhog’s Day experience every April. The truth of the matter was that we had to use Jamison and Butler to the limits of their abilities to earn the wins we got. The prevailing fear with the Celtic’s was over Rondo, and whether young PG would destroy their championship chances. As it was, despite some fantastic performances, he was still being yanked early and often for Cassell and his alien head. If Ernie is seruous about “winning now,” especially before Abe croaks, then his priority should be to use all available funding, to the extent of the owner’s wishes, to achieve that goal.

Which is why is Brown’s place on the roster us guaranteed, I don’t like that move for the Wiz. I think the reason that Posey and Barnes are being targeted, or should be targeted, is not so much their innate balling ability, but the fact that they are both “playoff tested.” McGee and McGuire may both turn out to be solid players, but I think if we are giving them significant minutes, we are going to see a decrease in wins as well as another early exit.

Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!

by ledellforlife on Jul 10, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow

I seriously apologize for those horrid typos.

and I agree with Prada, the market is such in that we have the room to sign a myriad of players for the money available.

Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!

by ledellforlife on Jul 10, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How does the NBDL affect player allocation?

If McGee or Opec are placed in the DL for the whole year does that still make the roster at 14?

by zeke5123 on Jul 10, 2008 3:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes

yes -

Teams are required to have 12 players on its active roster, although they can drop to 11 for up to two weeks at a time.
Teams must suit up at least eight players for every game.
Any remaining players (over the 12) must be on the Team’s Inactive List, and are ineligible to play in games.
The composition of the Inactive List can change on a game-by-game basis—but no less than 60 minutes prior to tipoff
A player can be inactive for as little as one game.
A team can send up to 2 players to the D-League
Players assigned to the D-League are automatically placed on their team’s Inactive List.
Only players with fewer than two years’ experience may be assigned to the D-League
A player can be assigned to the D-League no more than three times per season
There is no minimum or maximum length of a D-League assignment
Players continue to receive their NBA salary while assigned to the D-League.
Players continue to count against the Salary Cap and Luxury Tax while assigned to the D-League.

by Rook6980 on Jul 10, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

I thought I’d just head off all the other “roster” and “D-League” questions while answering zeke5123’s question.

by Rook6980 on Jul 10, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i imagine a trade... or nothing

like others are saying, from ernie’s position, i think he’s probably content with going into the season with what we’ve got. it’s not ideal, but he might not see a good move available right now, i.e., something that will truly improve the team. i don’t think he’s going to force the issue. if there’s nothing available he likes, he’ll probably wait until something changes or something different becomes available.

i’d understand it, but if he does this, he’s running the risk of the fans really getting pissed off about it, because i think you could argue this strategy could really hurt the team. we desperately need someone to spell caron. and if EJ is given the choice of riding caron or playing songaila, dmac, or pech as the backup three, it’s hard for me to blame EJ too much if he chooses to ride caron. to me, that’s on ernie.

we have a need. go fill it.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Jul 10, 2008 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ivan's hunch

IMO Ivan came to the conclusion that we’d be at 14 by figuring that Ernie would use the entire amount under the threshold (after Gilbert signed) on a single player. So there simply was no money for a 15th guy. But that chunk wasn’t going to get us a difference maker like Posey. Now Ernie has Dee Brown in his sights plus a 3.

Btw, Dee Brown is restricted because he is technically the same as Dom McGuire in terms of NBA time served. He was a second round pick with an non-guaranteed contract. Utah put the tender on him, non-guaranteed. He didn’t want to play for that and chose guaranteed money in Turkey instead. Utah still owns his NBA rights under the original tender. Its also a kin to what Detroit has been doing with their 2nd round picks. Send them to Europe to develop while retaining their rights free of charge.

You offer him a two year partial guaranteed deal because that way if he blows up into the next Beno Udrih you have him one more year. The partial guarantee will be 400K I’m guessing. So if you have to cut him after one year its not a huge deal.

Everyone on the roster counts, even guys playing in the D League. So they may only have 13 or 14 on games night depending on when Pech and McGee take their turns down there.

by Jheiser3 on Jul 10, 2008 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure

You can only keep 12 on the active roster. The others have to be inactive.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 10, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh yeah

Sorry, didn’t mean to suggest that they would have 14 active. They would have 14 available to them though, prior to designated 2 as inactive. So 13 or 14 “with the team”.

by Jheiser3 on Jul 10, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the clarification. I thought that might be his thinking.

by zeke5123 on Jul 10, 2008 3:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A few thoughts

1. If Dee Brown ends up on the team, there’s no way we’re signing Devin Brown. That’s a jersey snafu waiting to happen.
2. For some reason, I don’t get the feeling that Gilbert would be thrilled with EG only using the cap space he created to sign someone that plays the same position that he does.
3. I think this squelches any chance that Mo Evans or Tony Allen comes to Washington.

Bullets Forever: Where fancy numbers and YouTube come together.

by JakeTheSnake on Jul 10, 2008 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Which Makes Matt Barnes By #1 Choice

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 10, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Precisely.

Bullets Forever: Where fancy numbers and YouTube come together.

by JakeTheSnake on Jul 10, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait

I’m not getting your last point. It seems Barnes is, if anything, more expensive than those guys.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 10, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is

I just don’t see Eddie going after another guard if he’s signing Dee.

Bullets Forever: Where fancy numbers and YouTube come together.

by JakeTheSnake on Jul 10, 2008 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i like

Thought about the name thing too. We’d have a “Dee Brown” and a “Dev Brown” on their backs. No one would confuse them by sight though.

I’m hoping Evans might still be in play. He won’t want 1 year at that rate but maybe 2 years, 5 point something million will get his attention. He made 1.7 last year.

by Jheiser3 on Jul 10, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thug Power

Bonzi Wells. We need a hard man on the bench. There’s alot of guys in the East that really would dislike having to deal with guarding Bonzi in the paint. I’d sign him just to watch Adam Morrison try to check him a few min. a game

I knew Manute Bol, and you sir are no Manute Bol!

by houserocker on Jul 10, 2008 5:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

problem

Where is that mentality when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands? He goes from thug power to power puff girl on defense.

by Jheiser3 on Jul 10, 2008 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well don't need a thug

To justify Caron’s thug.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Jul 11, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No Way EG is giving up on Pecherov

Just does not make sense to write this kid off after less then 1/2 a season. Bigs develop slowly and Euro Bigs develop even slower. Pecherov is highly skilled and EG knows this and I doubt strongly he is going to trade him. Now the Clippers and Warriors need inside help and have cap space….I would be trying to send Ethan in that direction.

by LoneWiz54 on Jul 10, 2008 7:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why

would either team take an overpaid backup center with a heart problem? It doesn’t make any sense at all, especially for teams desperately looking to compete in a loaded Western conference..

Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!

by ledellforlife on Jul 10, 2008 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

especially for teams desperately looking to compete in a loaded Western conference..

you answered the question yourself. Look at the list of Bigs left in free agency. Not many worth anything. I am not saying it is a smart/good move by any team. But you never know, one of them just might get desperate. All I am saying is try and get rid of the contract.

by LoneWiz54 on Jul 11, 2008 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Try?

Etan’s been re-packaged more than Madonna. Even flipping Chris Wallace said, “Oh no, I’m not that stupid” last off-season. No one is taking a 15mil dollar risk on a guy who didn’t play last season because of heart surgery. Imagine selling that move to your fan base! “This is exactly the guy we needed to get us 6 points and 5 boards on most nights.”

Dropping his name doesn’t even get a call back until he plays and plays well.

by Jheiser3 on Jul 11, 2008 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

and chris wallace took the kwame…

Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!

by ledellforlife on Jul 11, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gil should be pissed

if this is the last move we make. I mean, leaving 2.5 mil on the table this year is nothing for Abe and Co., but it’s a chunk of money that Gil could be lining his pocket with. I suppose if we are going to wait and see where holes develop throughout the year then okay, but if we can land a defensive SF with the cash then lets just do it. We have enough depth elsewhere that I’m not worried about “flexibility.”

Getting buckets since 2003.

by Icantfeelmyface on Jul 10, 2008 11:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they are going to sit on the money

I think the writer was just wrong in assuming Wizards will carry only 14 players this year. I think they will sign another player, even if the player was just on of the summer leaguer FA’s that just happen to shine this year.

by LoneWiz54 on Jul 11, 2008 8:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Etan's Big Heart

Is it possible that Ernie knows that Etan will be physically unable to perform, and that Etan will not count for a roster spot next year, Darius Miles style?

by Bulletime on Jul 11, 2008 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs