BF "You Be the GM" contest

by Rook6980 on Jun 2, 2008 5:46 PM EDT Comment 15 comments

Ok - I know I already put in one submission... but after Ivan Carter's recent article about Gilbert Arenas negotiating his own contract... holding out until the last minute to Opt Out... Pradmaster's note earlier today about his "lack of bargaining power"..... I thought I'd take a second shot, with the assumption that Arenas could be negotiated "down" from a Max-Contract.

Gilbert is a 7-year veteran. As such, his maximum salary under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement is $15,649,500 - Maximum raises of 10.5% of the first year amount. ($15,649,500 x 10.5% = $173,197 per year maximum raises).. The Wizards are the only team that can offer a 6-year contract term. All other teams can offer only 5-years or less. A 6-year contract, with a maximum first year salary of $15,649,500, would be worth $

Let's keep in mind that Arenas is scheduled to make $12,804,000 next year if he does NOT OPT OUT.

Another thing to keep in mind is that there are not a lot of teams out there with cap room to offer Arenas a large contract... (or Jamison either for that matter)...

SO - Let's try to get under the Luxury Tax enough to perhaps sign Mason or another Free Agent...

1. Offer Arenas a 6-year deal with the first year starting at $14,000,000. That would give him a $106 Million deal over the next 6-years.

2. Offer Jamison a 4-year deal with the first year starting at $10,500,00. I'd normally say offer Jamison only 3-years, but let's give him that extra year, and see if we can reduce the first year's salary...

3. With the 18th pick, draft a Euro player and stash them overseas.

4. With the 47th pick, draft Kyle Weaver and sign him to a minimum contract $427K
(If you're not familiar with Kyle Weaver, look him up on DraftExpress... GREAT defensive player)

Here's the Wizards payroll for the 2008-2009 season:

Here’s the Wizards payroll for 2008-2009:
Andray Blatche  $ 2,739,669
Antawn Jamison  $10,500,000
Antonio Daniels  $ 6,200,000
Brendan Haywood  $ 5,500,000
Caron Butler  $ 9,249,980
Darius Songaila  $ 4,234,000
Deshawn Stevenson $ 3,616,017
Dominic McGuire  $   711,517
Etan Thomas  $ 6,864,200
Gilbert Arenas  $14,000,000
Nick Young  $ 1,602,960
Oleksiy Pecherov $ 1,446,720
First Round Pick #18 $     0.00
Second Round Pick $47 $   427,000

Total   $67,092,063

That leaves about $3.9 Million under the Luxury Tax to either sign Roger Mason or another veteran free agent.

Here's the Wizards line up:
PG = Gilbert Arenas , Antonio Daniels , Kyle Weaver
SG = DeShawn Stevenson, Nick Young
SF = Caron Butler, Andre Blatche, Dominic McGuire
PF = Antawn Jamison , Andre Blatche, Darius Songaila; Oleksiy Pecherov
C = Brendan Haywood, Etan Thomas, Andre Blatche

If Gilbert Arenas does not opt out, then it would provide another $1.2 Million for a Free Agent (total $5.1 Million, or almost equivalent to the Mid-Level Exception)...

Be carefull of wishing that Arenas NOT OPT OUT..... If that happens, he will almost certainly not be a Wizard after next season; as the Wizards will not have any room to sign him... The best chance of the Wizards keeping Arenas is that he opts out THIS YEAR.

The problem with this scenario is that Ernie would have to do some quick thinking RIGHT NOW. The draft is on June 26th. The first day you can sign players is July 1st....

So if you want to save money to try to sign Roger Mason, you need to decide now - because it affects who you are going to draft.

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

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Comments

Who'd you sign with that 3.9 million?

Otherwise, nice post. Especially liked the part about why it’s bad for Arenas to not opt-out. I never really considered that, but you’re probably right.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jun 2, 2008 5:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

($15,649,500×10.5% = $173,197 per year maximum raises).. The Wizards are the only team that can offer a 6-year contract term. All other teams can offer only 5-years or less. A 6-year contract, with a maximum first year salary of $15,649,500, would be worth $

That paragraph should read:
($15,649,500×10.5% = $1,643,197 per year maximum raises).. The Wizards are the only team that can offer a 6-year contract term. All other teams can offer only 5-years or less. A 6-year contract, with a maximum first year salary of $15,649,500, would be worth $108 Million

by Rook6980 on Jun 2, 2008 6:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Who'd you sign with that 3.9 million?

I would sign Mason… assuming someone else does not offer him more.

He can be the Wizards spot-up 3-point specialist and emergency backup PG. He plays pretty good defense…. already knows the offensive and defensive schemes…

Anyone else that could be had for $3.9 Million would take some time getting to know the new systems, new teammates, new Coaching staff, etc…

If Mason signs elsewhere, then I’d say sign a veteran pass first PG with a very good 3-point shot, like Tyronn Lue…

by Rook6980 on Jun 2, 2008 6:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Arenas opting out.

“Especially liked the part about why it’s bad for Arenas to not opt-out. I never really considered that, but you’re probably right.” – Pradamaster

Yeah – I read a lot of blog entries by people saying they hope Arenas “walks” – That’s a really bad option for Washington. If Arenas does not opt out, and then becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent at the end of the 2009 season…. He could sign with ANYONE.

The Wizards would still be OVER THE SALARY CAP… and only able to use the Mid-Level Exception or Minimum Salary exceptions to sign other players.

So – you give up a top 15 player…. making $13 Million a year….. for a Mid-Level Exception guy. Not a good trade off.

Arenas is a smart guy. He looked at the Wizards salary situation for both the 2008 and 2009 seasons. He saw Jamison’s expiring contract…. Saw the salary situation in 2009… I believe that he’s opting out now to give the Wizards the best chance of keeping him. You can kind of read some of that thinking in his early blog entries.

by Rook6980 on Jun 2, 2008 6:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Arenas knows the rules

From one of Gilbert’s early blog posts:

“I want to make sure that they get all the people they can get before I sign my deal because if I sign first and then eat up all the money, then we can’t get anybody.

If I let them pick out who they’re going to pick, like get the draftees and sign the free agents,” (read: Antawn Jamison, Roger Mason) “the money will still be there.

Abe Pollin believed in me after Michael Jordan. He told me that I was the guy he wanted to build around after Jordan was gone. I’m a loyal player.

I don’t have an agent. My counsel is myself. I just go through all the rules and read up on stuff. I just sit there and read stuff that happened in the past and why things didn’t work out and why things are the way they are. “

by Rook6980 on Jun 2, 2008 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Link?

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jun 2, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Link

Under: Opting Out is a Business Decision

http://aol.nba.com/blog/gilbert_arenas.html

by Rook6980 on Jun 2, 2008 8:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

From June 2007

Actually, June 14, 2007 to be precise..

Here’s a better link:

http://aol.nba.com/blog/gilbert_arenas.html#070614_01

by Rook6980 on Jun 2, 2008 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Similar

He’s said similar things in more recent posts as well…..

by Rook6980 on Jun 2, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

First, great work. I hereby offer up one of the Turkish Centers as players to draft and wait out. Semih Erden or Omer Asik.

Confused, are you saying it’d be bad because the Wizards would have to go into the luxury tax to re-sign him in 09 if he doesn’t opt out in 08? Thats your reasoning as to why he wouldn’t be a Wizard after free agency in 09?

if so, I don’t agree. this team won’t go into the luxury tax to bring in new 8th man but they will certainly go there to re-sign Gilbert. That very idea is starting to surface from the team too.

The numbers of other teams don’t change much to be the point where there are many, if any teams with the room to offer him anywhere near the deal the Wiz could. Its why you see so many guys re-signing for big money with their current team then forcing a trade later if they feel the need to. Maybe I’m reading it wrong so I’ll wait for your answer.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 4, 2008 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bad for 2 reasons

Yeah – bad for 2 reasons….

1. If Gilbert does not opt out this year, but plays the final year of his existing contract, the Wizards would almost certainly have to go $4-5 Million into the Luxury tax to sign him… Also giving up the Luxury tax payment (for teams that stay under the tax) – which is supposed to be about $5Million this year. Not only that, but unless they can re-structure the team somehow (trade for expiring contracts), they would be over the Luxury tax for several years to come. The total cost to the franchise could reach into $20 or $30 Million dollars MORE than if they sign him this year.

2. This year, there are very few teams with salary cap space, or expiring contracts, that could afford to offer Arenas even close to a maximum contract. Next year is a completely different story. Jason Kidd’s $20 Million contract comes off the books for Dallas. Lamar Odom $15 Million comes off the LA Lakers cap space. Allen Iverson’s $20 Million comes off Denver’s books. Jermaine O’Neal $20Million comes off Indiana’s books. – And there are more!!! Arenas could have a whole host of suitors next year.

by Rook6980 on Jun 5, 2008 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Like I said - Arenas is Smart

I think that Arenas is doing EXACTLY what he said he wanted to do… Opt out THIS YEAR, so that he can secure a 6-year contract from the Wizards.

He has said all along that he does not want to leave.
He has said repeatedly that he wants the Wizards to take care of Jamison first.
He has even said he would take less money to ensure Jamison stays.

AND more importantly, his ACTIONS speak even louder than words. He knows the salary cap rules – you can sense that in his blog entries. He’s read up on the ramifications. He knows which teams have money this year. He knows which teams will have money next year. If he were opting out ONLY FOR THE MONEY, and to become a Free Agent to test the waters to see what his market value was, he would be much better off playing next year and becoming an Unrestricted Free Agent next year.

He knows that next year the Lakers will have enough money to sign him…. Play WITH Kobe ? ! ? In his home town? ? ! ? !

He knows that Jason Kidd’s salary comes off Dallas’ books next year. You don’t think that Mark Cuban wouldn’t go whole hog to get a marketing gem like Arenas? ! ? ? !

SO – WHY IS HE OPTING OUT THIS YEAR?

I think it’s pretty obvious. THIS year, the Jamison’s $16 Million salary comes off the Wizards books. THIS year the Wizards can afford to pay him. THIS year he has a chance to stay with the Franchise that showed some faith in him by signing him in the first place. THIS year he has a chance to show the fans he really cares about Washington. THIS year he has a chance to show some “loyalty” to Abe Polin.

Some other people slam Arenas in the blogosphere as a selfish player. Hoping that by opting out he will leave; that the team is better without him…. I think those people are wrong!

by Rook6980 on Jun 5, 2008 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

solid theory

but still a theory.

here’s another one: it’s just as likely his opting out now and wanting to secure a long term deal has to do with the knee injury. basically, he wants to secure a long term deal as soon as possible. he understands that things happen and he wants to sign now and get some long term insurance.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Jun 6, 2008 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

According to http://hoopshype.com/salaries/washington.htm the salary situation isn’t exactly as you described it. Assuming Blatche’s salary (3-4), another first round pick and AJ’s contract in the 11Mil range, the Wizards would have roughly 54 Million in salary committed for the 09/10 season leaving plenty of room to sign Gilbert and stay under the luxury tax.

As for other teams with money… They are already WAY over the luxury tax threshold. Clearing those salaries doesn’t create room to sign a max player anymore than Gilbert opting out and Jamison expiring creates room for the Wiz this year.

Dallas is at 50Mil in salary for just 4 players. Its a given they’ll spend this offseason which would keep them on being a serious bidder.
The Lakers are at 55 with Ariza/Turiaf to re-sign, and Odom to replace. Plus Gilbert would be a horrible teammate for Kobe.
Denver is at 54Mil even without Iverson. Again, they drop payroll but not enough to make a big play.
Jermaine O’Neal’s deal runs through 2010.
Maybe there are others, like Minnesota and Memphis that can get far enough under to offer a max deal but Arenas isn’t going there.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 6, 2008 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Consistency

This is the roster I was so crazy excited about seeing this past year, after that great first 3/4 of the year in 06/07. If no significant upgrades are out there this off season, I’m all for giving that consistency (that sort of skipped a year) another go round.

by Evander holyfield on Jun 4, 2008 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs