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My "You Be the GM" Entry

Gugliottawas_tiny by cuppettcj on

Editor's Note: From the FanShots.  For the record, I am vehemently opposed to trading Gilbert Arenas for Jermaine O'Neal.  O'Neal hasn't played more than 69 games in four years.  His PER has declined for four straight seasons.  He's a below-average rebounder, terribly inefficient shooter, and not much of a shot blocker anymore now that he's been hurt.  However, the great thing about this site is that reasonable people can disagree, and this argument is reasonable, like all of cuppettcj's posts and comments.

If such a trade were to somehow happen, I think both players benefit.  O'Neal benefits from a more structured offensive system, while Arenas would have the green light at all times in Jim O'Brien's open-court system.  Whatever.  I need to get off my soapbox and let cuppettcj take the floor.

Step 1: Fire the entire training staff and replace them with competent trainers who can keep the team healthy. I forget where I heard the rumor that the head athletic trainer is friends with the Pollin family, but that would explain a lot. Both success and incompetence should be rewarded appropriately. I think everybody here knows where the Wizards training staff falls.

Step 2: Fire Eddie Jordan. Replace him with either Avery Johnson (first option) or Flip Saunders (second option). I know several of you don't agree with this, but I think I made my point that each of these coaches has proven that they can improve a team beyond the point that Eddie can take us. Furthermore, each of these coaches has shown that they can get their players to commit to defense, something that Eddie Jordan has never been able to do. Defense wins championships. The last team to win a championship without finishing in the top 10 in defense was the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers. Strangely enough, the Lakers won both the season before and the season after, and ranked in the top 7 defensely both of those years. I guess they felt that they were so good offensively that they could take a year off defensively. Whoever coaches the Wizards won't have that luxury, at least not initially. I want a coach that stops giving away easy buckets like they're AOL discs (OK, outdated reference, but I couldn't think of a better one). We tried a different defensive coach, but that didn't do the trick, so it's time to hold the head coach accountable for the team's defensive failings. It's time to bring in some fresh blood.

Step 3: Resign Antawn Jamison to a four year deal, starting at $11.9 million and going up to $12 million for each of the next three years. Why $11.9 million in the first year? To keep us under the luxury tax threshold. Keep reading for more details.

Step 4: Sign and trade Gilbert Arenas, Etan Thomas, and the 18th draft pick to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal and the 11th draft pick. This was a tough decision that I thought long and hard about. I'm a big Agent Zero fan. But in the end it came down to me not willing to take the big gamble on Gil's knee. Six years and $100 million is a lot to invest in a guy who hasn't shown he can be the same healthy player he was over a year ago. Plus, Caron has shown us all that he can step up his game to fill a lot of the void missing when Gil is gone. To reiterate, I don't buy into the theory that the Wizards are better without Gilbert, but I do think the drop-off from Gilbert won't be as great because of Caron. It certainly won't be a $16.4 million per season drop-off.

Of course, acquiring Jermaine O'Neal has its own injury risks, but I believe he brings more upside because he would be filling some of the Wizards' biggest needs, particularly interior defense. Not to mention that none of O'Neal's injuries were ever as serious as Gil's. Besides, even a Jermaine O'Neal at a little less than 100% would be a big improvement for us in the paint, where currently we simply get abused in the playoffs. Furthermore, I think the change in scenery and the higher quality team he would be coming to would improve his attitude and motivate him to get healthy. Of course, a lot of that relies on Step 1 (see above). Oh, and he's only going to turn 30 this October, so it's not exactly like he's over-the-hill.

I can't do the RealGM Trade Checker on this because Gilbert is still unsigned, but his salary at $16.4 million plus Etan's salary of $6,864,200 would add up to $23,264,200, which is less than %125 of Jermaine O'Neal's salary, so it should work under the Traded Player exception.

Why would Indiana want to do this trade? Well, I was surprised when a Pacers fan over at Indy Cornrows suggested it (at my prompting). I suppose that you can attribute it to the desire to dump O'Neal's salary in addition to the upside of acquiring an explosive scorer like Agent Zero. After all, the team's best scorer currently is Danny Granger. There have been rumors swirling aroung the Web lately of the Pacers dumping O'Neal for a lot less, so I would suppose this offer would be a lot more credible than those. In the words of that Pacers fan:

this trade would be nuts but if the Wizards offered either of them Bird would pull the trigger in a second, guaranteed!

So there you go, Pacers fan Brent Jonathan Beck guarantees this deal will go down, what more do you want? :)

Step 5: Use the 11th pick to get either Russell Westbrook or DJ Augustin, whoever falls to that point. I would prefer (and it is more likely) that it would be Russell Westbrook, who is a tremendous defender at the position. According to Draft Express:

Defensively, Westbrook is nothing short of outstanding, as evidenced by the phenomenal work he did locking down the three top scoring guards in the Pac-10 this season, O.J. Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, and James Harden. He is long, strong and very fundamentally sound, getting into a terrific defensive stance on every possession, moving his feet incredibly well, and being absolutely tenacious getting after his matchup. His wingspan, combined with his huge hands and outstanding anticipation skills make him a terror in the passing lanes, and this is a big factor why he spends so much time in transition offensively.

Currently, Russell Westbrook is projected to go 11th in Draft Express's mock draft. What a coincidence! :)

Step 6: Use the 47th pick on Kyle Weaver. Good call by Rook6980 on this idea. Because the Wizards would already have 12 players (including Russell Westbrook), I may have to assign him to the NBDL or place him on the inactive list.

Step 7: Let Roger Mason walk. No surprise here.

Final Salary Breakdown:

Jermaine O'Neal     $21,372,000
Antawn Jamison      $11,900,000
Caron Butler        $ 9,249,980
Antonio Daniels     $ 6,200,000
Brendan Haywood     $ 5,500,000
Darius Songaila     $ 4,234,000
DeShawn Stevenson   $ 3,616,071
Andray Blatche      $ 2,739,669
Russell Westbrook   $ 1,993,560
Nick Young          $ 1,602,960
Oleksiy Pecherov    $ 1,446,720
Dominic McGuire     $   711,517
Kyle Weaver         $   427,000
-----------------   -----------
Totals              $70,993,477

Washington Wizards 2008-09 Lineup/Depth Chart:

Center:             Jermaine O'Neal, Brendan Haywood
Power Forward:      Antawn Jamison, Andray Blatche, Oleksiy Pecherov
Small Forward:      Caron Butler, Darius Songaila, Dominic McGuire
Shooting Guard:     DeShawn Stevenson, Nick Young
Point Guard:        Antonio Daniels, Russell Westbrook, Kyle Weaver

Yes, I realize that Jermaine O'Neal is primarily a power forward, but it wouldn't hurt to have him start at center and then slide over to PF when Brendan enters the game. Alternatively, the Wizards can start big with a line-up like this:

Center:             Brendan Haywood
Power Forward:      Jermaine O'Neal
Small Forward:      Antawn Jamison
Shooting Guard:     Caron Butler
Point Guard:        Antonio Daniels

Either way, I'm sure the new head coach can find a way to make it work.

So that's it. Queue the criticisms. :

Yo! This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

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Great idea, but

Gilbert would have to agree to going to Indiana in order to make this trade go through.

I don’t see him even considering playing for the Pacers. That would give them a depth chart of:
Gil / Jamal Tinsley / Travis Diener
Danny Granger / Kareem Rush
Dunleavy / Marquis Daniels / Shawne Williams
Troy Murphy / Ike Diogu
Jeff Foster / David Harrison / Etan Thomas

Aside from Gilbert, I’m almost positive the Pacers would go for it, I could see Grunfeld considering it, and I personally like it.

I like the immediate impact of JO in the post, and the #11 pick gives us a great option in the draft. Westbrook would be a magnificent addition. He could become a Devin Harris type point guard.

But what I like most about this deal would be JO’s HUGE contract coming off the books in 2010. That puts us in the running in one of the best free agent classes in recent history, and doesn’t make us gamble our (finally) strong, consistent core of players on the risk of an injury and a huge inactive contract a la Grant Hill (something I’m terrified of).

If you could sell Gilbert on going to Indiana, I’m all for it. Sorry Gil, I still got love for ya.

Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!

by Evander holyfield on Jun 16, 2008 4:49 PM EDT   0 recs

I Think Gil Would Agree to It

I think Gil can be talked into this deal for two reasons:

1) Gil would be paid and treated like a max player in Indiana. He feels he is a max player, that he deserves it, and he would get it there. There would be no discussions about “are the Pacers better without Gilbert?” He heard those discussions with the Wizards this season, he wrote about them in his blog, and he was clearly irritated by them. No such problems in Indiana. He would be the man. The offense would flow through him completely. He would be paid max money, something which the Wizards would be hard pressed to do if they are to also resign Antawn.

2) I think the Pacers would compete in the playoffs with Agent Zero. Consider this enthusiastic Pacer’s fan’s comments on this proposed trade:


The thing ya got to remember about Gilbert is that he is 26…. perfect age for our young core… Granger is 25… and Dunleavy is 27… If we added a low post presence with potential like say Texas A & Ms DeAndre Jordan… just imagine if that 7 footer ended up playing similar to Chris Bosh… our lineup would be lethal! Projected starting 5:

C: Troy Murphy
PF: DeAndre Jordan
SF: Danny Granger
SG: Mike Dunleavy
PG: Gilbert Arenas

Bench
PF: Ike Diogu
SF: Shawne Williams
PG: Travis Diener
PG/SG: Marquis Daniels
C: Jeff Foster

= PLAYOFF CALIBER IN MY MIND, on the contingent that Gilbert becomes an All-Star and maintains his health, and DeAndre blows up with his giant ceiling of potential… we would put a beating on the Wizards even if Jermaine was healthy…. and I guarantee that, or at least hope…

Of course, I don’t share his views on the Pacers beating up the Wizards with that lineup, but I do agree that it would be playoff caliber. The Pacers only missed the playoffs by 1 game this year, if you can believe that! Granger and Dunleavy are already both 19 PPG scorers, and they’re both efficient scorers at that (.571 and .605 true shooting percentage, respectively). Gilbert would obviously make them better by drawing double-teams, thereby giving them more open looks. Those 3 would be Indiana’s Big 3, and their oldest Big 3 player is only 27 years old! A young core to build around, if you ask me.

So I think you could sell Gil on the idea that he would make the Pacers an instant contender in the East. Perhaps as high as the 4th seed, if Gil returns to pre-injured form.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 1:51 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

Indiana seems like a perfect fit for Gilbert

To piggyback…

It’s another basketball-crazy area he could save. With all the bad press the Pacers have received post-brawl, you have to believe the fans would love a charismatic guy like Gilbert who doesn’t get into trouble and is so close with the fans. You also have to believe Gilbert would relish the chance to “save” a basketball town like Indiana.

Better yet, Indiana’s style of play is perfect for Gilbert. They played at the third-fastest pace in the league this year (yes, faster than Phoenix). Only Golden State and Orlando shot more threes per game. In Dunleavy and Granger, Gil has a somewhat similar setup to Hughes/Jamison, and cuppettcj is right, both are pretty solid perimeter scorers.

Indiana would play very little defense in this scenario, but Jim O’Brien is a pretty solid defensive coach, so I wouldn’t worry too much. I don’t know how good Indiana would be, but that’s certainly a playoff team. Like cuppettcj said, they were one spot out this year, and swapping the unproductive and unhappy O’Neal for Arenas would make them better, which is why I’d never consider this trade.

But for Indiana and Gilbert, it’s a perfect fit.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Jun 17, 2008 2:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He'd sell tickets

They were 30th in attendance despite trying to pick things up, run and gun.

Other problem would be financial. They max out Gilbert, Dunleavy and Murphy still have big deals with 3 years remaining, same for Tinsley, how do they pay/keep Granger? This would push them into the luxury tax as well.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 17, 2008 3:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Expect the Pacers to Deal Tinsley

From Jamaal Tinsley’s recent player review at Indy Cornrows:

All indications point to the Pacers moving forward without Tinsley. Jim O’Brien has openly mentioned that he can’t rely on Tinsley to lead the team at PG. Most draft speculation revolves around the available point guards, unless of course, the Pacers trade for another point guard. One thing is for sure, Tinsley is no longer the answer at point guard for the Pacers. How the situation is dealt with won’t be known until after the draft but I fully expect this won’t be my last post to include the words ‘dealt’ and ‘Tinsley’ together.

Expect the Pacers to make a move to deal Tinsley and dump at least some of his salary.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 4:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You could write the same thing for the Wiz and Etan, that doesn’t make it any easier to actually trade him somewhere. His is the smallest salary of the bunch at 6+Mil.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 17, 2008 4:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Well

At least Tinsley played last season.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Jun 17, 2008 4:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yep

He played 39 games, scored 11.9 with 8 assists per game while shooting 38% from the field. And for that you get to pay him more than 21 Million over the next 3 seasons if you acquire him.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 17, 2008 4:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I can't wait to hear how reports of how much we offer Gil

I would also love to be in the room to hear Ernie Grunfeld and Gil negotiating a contract. That would be the most entertaining thing

Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!

by Evander holyfield on Jun 17, 2008 3:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What buildings would he paint those O's on in Indy?

If Gil says he wouldn’t sign here without having Jamison locked up, why would he want his pick and pop guy to be replaced with Troy Murphy?

Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!

by Evander holyfield on Jun 17, 2008 8:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Meant to respond here cuppettcj

Gil would want to replace Jamison as his pick and pop forward with Troy Murphy?

Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!

by Evander holyfield on Jun 17, 2008 8:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Danny Granger...

... would probably be Gil’s pick and pop guy.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 10:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Great work

First, I recognize the time that went into it. The more people finding semi-realistic scenarios for change the better the discussion.

But I want no part of Jermaine O’Neal. The deal, the trade, it all works I just hate the piece coming back, even on the shortened contract. That doesn’t make it less likely to happen. AD and Haywood also expire that year. Thats a lot of money coming off at one time.

IMO he’s only going to slide from this point. He’s 30 and that makes him a 12-year vet in the NBA since he was 18 as a rookie. He didn’t get many minutes early on in his career in Portland. When you factor in playoff games and international competitions he has played in 795 games in his career. He’s not a young 30.

He may be damaged goods too. He tore his meniscus in April of 06, but tried and did play on it for awhile. He gutted it out for a stretch and who knows what damage that did to his knee. He was getting hurt before that too. He’s missed 117 games in the past 4 seasons overall. I realize Gilbert is in a near identical situation and they both dragged their injured leg up and down the court last year.

If you draft Westbrook why draft Weaver too? Is he even there at #47? If you get him you’ll have 3 guards who can’t shoot 3’s mixed in with Stephenson and Young, not exactly sharpshooters either. With J.O in the post there will be more of a emphasis placed on players who can space the floor as support players. In that instance Shan Foster, G/F out of Vandy would be best the shooter (potentially) available in the 2nd round. The other guy you might like because he ranks with Weaver in rebounding and defense but scores more and dishes a little less, JR Giddens.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 16, 2008 9:07 PM EDT   0 recs

JO Not Expected to Be Great

I wouldn’t expect JO to be the savior for the Wizards. He may be a 6-time All-Star, former MIP, and former 2nd Team All-NBA, but I would only expect him to be at best the 3rd scoring option on offense. Primarily, I want JO for what he brings to defense with his size and shot blocking.

O’Neal’s defensive rating was 105 last season. Not great, but tied for best on the Pacers. If he were a Wizard, he would be tied for best with Andray Blatche (surprise!). Despite what Prada said in his introduction, O’Neal’s shot blocking has not declined. His blocks per 36 minutes for the past 5 seasons are 2.6, 2.1, 2.3, 2.7, and 2.6. His 2.6 bp36m last season would make him the best shot blocker on the Wizards, ahead of Blatche (2.5 bp36m) and Haywood (2.1 bp36m).

His rebounding has declined, but 8.4 rp36m is still not that bad. Plus, with his size and shot blocking he could set up Jamison and Butler for monster rebounding numbers by altering a lot of shots in the paint. Any penetrating guard would have to be aware of his presence and adjust.

Offensively, O’Neal averaged 17.0 pp36m last season, his worst scoring since 2000-2001. Yet, that would still place him as the 3rd highest scoring front-court player on the Wizards and the 4th highest scoring player, behind only Jamison, Butler, and Young. He would certainly be an upgrade over either Haywood (13.7 pp36m) or Blatche (13.3 pp36m). We could have him alternate posting up with Jamison to give us a true inside-out offense.

As far as him being washed up, past his prime, and an old 30, I really think that placing him around two other All-Stars will really help improve his attitude, confidence, and motivation. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that he can get back to the level he was playing at two seasons ago, when he was averaging 19.6 pp36m, 9.7 rp36m, and 2.7 bp36m. And if he doesn’t, we simply cut our losses in two seasons and sign another big name to take his place. A lot better scenario than watching an injured Arenas bog down our team salary for the next 6 seasons, which is the other risk we take by keeping him.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 3:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd argue some of those per/36 numbers don't tell as much as usual

Because they aren’t pace-adjusted. Normally, that’s not a big deal, but Indiana was one of the fastest teams in the league last year and the Wizards were one of the slowest. Indiana played an average of eight possessions a game more than Washington. If you adjust for pace, O’Neal’s per/36 numbers look worse, and they mirror Haywood’s more closely.

8.4 rebounds/36 isn’t awful, but it’s worse than Haywood, and worse yet, Jermaine’s rebound rate was a paltry 12.8%, which is even worse than Blatche. And sure, JO can score, but even at his best, he was not efficient in doing so. His career-best true shooting percentage is 53.9%. Haywood’s career-worst is 54%.

At best, JO is a very, very slight upgrade over Haywood, and he costs four times as much for the same number of years. JO’s biggest pluses are his “paint-presence,” but Haywood’s a pretty solid paint presence himself. The biggest problem with the Wizards’ defense all year was really perimeter defense. I wouldn’t let a six-game sample with Cleveland (arguably the best rebounding team in the league) sway that.

Now, there’s a legitimate argument to be made that JO’s 2007/08 season was an aberration, and Haywood’s was as well in the opposite direction. Perhaps, but with O’Neal over 30 and an injury-risk, I’m inclined to believe we’ll see more of the same from JO in the future. Gilbert, at least, is 26, and a less-explosive Gilbert is still close to three times as valuable as Daniels, who is a nice backup, but is also 33 and can’t shoot. I’d rather take the risk that Gilbert’s long-term deal clogs our cap that paying three times as much for two years for a slight upgrade on Brendan Haywood while downgrading significantly at the point.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Jun 17, 2008 4:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Do you mean?

That JO is just a “very, very slight” upgrade over BTH on the defensive end only?

I’m not sure if you have factoring offense into your assessment.

by Truth About It on Jun 17, 2008 9:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No, I'm talking the whole package

JO scores more, but is far more inefficient than Haywood. That seems like a wash to me.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Jun 17, 2008 9:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Post

Didn’t Hollinger write him up mentioning he goes to one block (left?) 90% of the time? Could have sworn I read that and that 20% of his offense are jumpers now.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 17, 2008 9:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Great
Because they aren’t pace-adjusted. Normally, that’s not a big deal, but Indiana was one of the fastest teams in the league last year and the Wizards were one of the slowest. Indiana played an average of eight possessions a game more than Washington. If you adjust for pace, O’Neal’s per/36 numbers look worse, and they mirror Haywood’s more closely.

OK, you made me start up OpenOffice Calc to do the math. :) Below are JO’s numbers last season per 36 minutes, compared to Brendan’s, adjusted to the Wizards pace:

Player           Points  Rebounds  Blocks  Assists
------           ------	 --------  ------  -------
Jermaine O'Neal  15.62   7.72      2.39    2.57
Brendan Haywood  13.70   9.30      2.10    1.10

So yeah, Brendan is a better rebounder. But JO is still a better scorer, passer, and shot blocker. Basically, even adjusted for pace, JO is still a better player in one of his worst seasons then Brendan is in his best.

At best, JO is a very, very slight upgrade over Haywood, and he costs four times as much for the same number of years. JO’s biggest pluses are his "paint-presence," but Haywood’s a pretty solid paint presence himself.
...
I’d rather take the risk that Gilbert’s long-term deal clogs our cap that paying three times as much for two years for a slight upgrade on Brendan Haywood while downgrading significantly at the point.

Great, so why don’t we just clone Brendan Haywood. That way, when Brendan gets in foul trouble because the Wizards don’t have another big that can guard anybody, we can bring in Brendan 2 and get the same production!

Seriously, I would be bringing in JO not to replace Haywood, but to complement him. Brendan’s great, but we need someone who can guard the paint when he’s not on the floor. Currently, when Brendan leaves the game with his 3rd foul early in the 2nd quarter, the Wizards defense rolls out the red carpet in the lane. Last season, Brendan averaged 27.9 mpg. That’s 20.1 mpg that we defend the paint with pillowly-soft and/or undersized forwards. Wouldn’t it be nice to have a player that’s better than Brendan to start the game, then replace that player with Brendan? Imagine having a defense that’s capable of protecting the paint for a full 48 minutes. It’s easy if you try. :)

Ironically, even if we could clone Brendan, we’d be unable to sign him at his cloned salary of $5.5 million, still sign Antawn and Gilbert, and stay under the luxury tax threshold. That’s the problem with the status quo, we can’t improve the team. Albert Einstein once defined the word insanity as, “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Same coach, same Big 3, same lack of size and interior defense, same result in the playoffs, to the same team! Are we insane to expect next season to be any different if we don’t add anybody significant?

The biggest problem with the Wizards’ defense all year was really perimeter defense.

No kidding. It’s kind of hard for the Wizards guards to lock down on their man on the perimeter when they’re constantly collapsing into the paint to stop another team’s big from steamrolling his way to the basket! Imagine having a defense that doesn’t require a double-team in the low-post on every possession, allowing Wizards guards to stay home on their man. It’s easy if you try. Maybe someday you’ll join me, and the world will be one. :)

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 9:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, except....

You said: “Same coach, same Big 3, same lack of size and interior defense, same result in the playoffs, to the same team! Are we insane to expect next season to be any different if we don’t add anybody significant?”

When has Eddie Jordan had the same Big 3, together, and healthy for a full year? Never!

Blow up the team, simply because 2 years in a row, the Wizards have had injury problems?

Detroit played all year with each of their starters only missing a few games. Think where the Wizards could have been if Arenas had played the entire year, and if Caron didn’t miss those 24 games….. Not to mention if their back-up center had not been lost for the entire year… and their ONLY OTHER point guard didn’t play with a bum wrist for half the season.

You must realize that a fully healthy Wizards team could have been MUCH better in the standings…. possibly enough to win 50 or 55 games. Certainly enough to win 2 more games and secure home court advantage against Cleveland.

Home court may have been enough to propel them to the Eastern Conference Finals (where they probably would have lost to the Boston Celtics)...

by Rook6980 on Jun 18, 2008 12:34 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, I Hear You
When has Eddie Jordan had the same Big 3, together, and healthy for a full year? Never!

I know all about the Wizards injury problems these past two seasons. I even made the same arguments you’re making when arguing with David Friedman about Gilbert’s value to the team. But that was before the playoffs, which was kind of an eye-opener for me. I thought going into the playoffs that our team was destined to end the curse against Cleveland. Our team was younger, quicker, more athletic, and healthier than they had been in over a year. Plus, Cleveland’s starting point guard Sasha Pavlocic was out with injury, and Ben Wallace and LeBron James were both battling sore backs. Surely we could get over the hump in this scenario. But no.

The Ghost of Christmas Past visited us yet again. We were absolutely abused in the low post and in the paint. Our forwards were getting manhandled down low, getting pushed around like rag dolls and helplessly looking at the refs for over-the-back whistles that never came. If I had a nickel for every time Wallace or Ilgauskas grabbed a rebound over the back of the undersized Antawn or Songaila in the paint, I’d be a much richer man. Antawn and Songaila are good rebounders, but they didn’t have the size or toughness to stand up to Cleveland in the paint. A healthy Gilbert would not have made a difference in this regard.

Our low post offense didn’t scare any of their defenders. After consistently getting Brendan in foul trouble, they would play tough, physical one-on-one defense on Antawn, making him beat them with jump shots while staying home on our perimeter shooters. We became nothing more than a jump-shooting team, basically a slightly better version of last season’s Bulls. Cleveland’s defense made us earn every shot, often getting hands in our faces. We couldn’t convert.

Defensively, it was the same broken record. We’d collapse our defense into the paint to stop either penetration from James or Ilgauskas from steamrolling his way to the basket. Inevitably, that left a man open on the perimeter, and like good professional basketball players do, they made their wide-open shots. At times our defense was so bad, even when we double-teamed LeBron, he still got the shot he wanted. Would a healthy Gilbert have stopped this?

Even when Eddie Jordan had a healthy roster to work with, he never had the Wizards playing good defense. Although not entirely his fault, that is the problem. As Boston proved last night, good defense beats good offense. Considering that, it’s not surprising that we find ourselves in the same position as the Nuggets and Warriors season after season come playoff time.

Blow up the team, simply because 2 years in a row, the Wizards have had injury problems?

I don’t know why you would consider my moves “blowing up the team.” I’m basically just keeping the same core guys from last season, replacing the coach and training staff, and adding a key piece to the starting line-up and our defense.

You must realize that a fully healthy Wizards team could have been MUCH better in the standings…. possibly enough to win 50 or 55 games. Certainly enough to win 2 more games and secure home court advantage against Cleveland.

Home court may have been enough to propel them to the Eastern Conference Finals (where they probably would have lost to the Boston Celtics)...

I do realize that we would have been better, but probably not enough to overtake Orlando for the 3rd seed. We would have still played Cleveland, which is always a bad matchup for our team as currently constructed. Who knows, we might have squeaked by them with the home-court advantage, but it would also have been very possible that we wouldn’t.

We would have then met Boston in the second round, not the conference finals. It would have been a tough matchup for the Celts, but we would have still lost. So maybe a healthy version of our current roster gets us a few wins in the second round. Not much better than 2004-2005.

Not to mention if their back-up center had not been lost for the entire year…

Actually, I think this was a good thing for our team. Remember what it was like when Etan was healthy? Here’s a refresher course:

ORLANDO, Nov. 6—Washington Wizards centers Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood were involved in a physical altercation last Thursday in which the two traded punches at Verizon Center, according to two team sources.

One source, who requested anonymity because the team was trying to keep the incident private, said Thomas was angry over comments made by Haywood’s agent, Andy Miller, on Oct. 30.

Miller was critical of Coach Eddie Jordan’s decision to select Thomas as the starting center over Haywood, believing Jordan chose Thomas out of personal animosity toward Haywood rather than performance. “My concern is that this is based on personal issues rather than professional ones,” Miller said the day of the decision.

And another refresher, this occurred later in the same season:

“The entire situation doesn’t make sense,” said Thomas, whose minutes have fluctuated since he returned after missing 13 games with a sprained ankle. “I am trying to find my rhythm after missing a month with this ankle injury, trying to put together some decent games, feeling good to be a part of everything that the team is accomplishing, and this cat decides to hit me with a cheap shot during practice and I reacted. I could have turned the other cheek. I guess I didn’t.”

I’ve made the argument before that one of the big reasons that Haywood improved so much this past season was because he didn’t have to look back over his shoulder the entire time to see if Eddie was going to pull out the hook and replace him with Etan. With Etan being hurt all season, there was no competition for the starting job, and therefore no fireworks. With Etan coming back healthy next season, however, the fireworks risk returning. All of Haywood’s progress from last season is in jeopardy, unless we either move Haywood (bad idea), move Etan (difficult without giving up somebody valuable), or replace the head coach, who’s partial towards Etan starting. My proposal solves this issue completely.

Honestly, I hope I’m wrong about all of this. Most likely, Ernie is not going to do any of the things I would do. He’s more likely to follow your plan, Rook. Which means that I’m just going to hope for the best and “drink the Kool-Aid” for another season, so to speak. We’ll probably get at least a little better with the status quo, but so will many other teams in the East. I can only hope that everything comes together better than they have the past four seasons.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 18, 2008 9:41 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Another Thing About Pace

It might be misleading to think that a PF or C would score less when adjusted to a slower pace. Typically a faster pace benefits smaller, faster players who can get to the rim in transition without fear of getting their shot blocked. Normally, in a half-court set offense, these players are reduced to jump-shooters.

PFs or Cs, on the other hand, might see their percentage of shots per possession increase in a slower offense, and thereby negate the pace difference to their scoring per minute. So it’s possible that JO is still a much better scorer than Brendan. In fact, I think he is.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 10:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

In Fact
In fact, I think he is.

Poor choice of words when making a theoretical argument. :)

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 10:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think he would be very happy to get our of Indiana. He would definitely get a boost out of that but that doesn’t fix his knee, or the related thigh/groin injuries that came up while he tried to play on the knee.

By the numbers, O’Neal has played in almost the same number of NBA games (regulation and playoff) and Intl games for Team USA as Jamison has played in 3 years of college and 10 years in the NBA. AJ comes in at 852, O’Neal just over 800.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 17, 2008 4:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

About Weaver
If you draft Westbrook why draft Weaver too? Is he even there at #47? If you get him you’ll have 3 guards who can’t shoot 3’s mixed in with Stephenson and Young, not exactly sharpshooters either. With J.O in the post there will be more of a emphasis placed on players who can space the floor as support players. In that instance Shan Foster, G/F out of Vandy would be best the shooter (potentially) available in the 2nd round. The other guy you might like because he ranks with Weaver in rebounding and defense but scores more and dishes a little less, JR Giddens.

You’re probably right. I basically just need an emergency guard in case of injuries. A more offensive guard would probably be a better option, like the ones you mentioned.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 4:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gamble...

I think relying on Jermaine is a bigger gamble than holding on to Arenas. He’s a big man with questionable injuries.

But I’m also biased because I love Gil so much.

by se7en on Jun 17, 2008 12:14 PM EDT   0 recs

Jamison is pretty durable

so I wouldn’t worry about that. His age is the far bigger concern. Are we really close enough to choose a 32-year old over a 26-year old?

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Jun 17, 2008 2:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jermaine O'Neal Will Turn 30 in October

Not 32. Or will you talking about Jamison? I’m confused.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 2:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I Think se7en Was Talking About JO

That’s why I’m confused.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 4:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, he was

That’s my fault, I didn’t make myself more clear.

If we’re choosing between Gil and Jamison, I’d rather us re-sign Gil and let Jamison go. Of course, Jamison’s market value is lower than Arenas’, but if this is the type of package we’d get for Arenas, I’d be inclined to pass.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Jun 17, 2008 4:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gilbert Has Already Nixed That Idea
If we’re choosing between Gil and Jamison, I’d rather us re-sign Gil and let Jamison go.

I would too, but Gilbert has already said, if you remember, that he wouldn’t come back if Antawn isn’t back too. Of course, knowing Gilbert, he could change his mind on this. But assuming he doesn’t, that means either keep both and don’t improve the team or trade Gilbert and take a chance that you do improve the team. I chose option 2.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 10:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

How about option 3?

Keep the same team together, and see if they can stay HEALTHY?

They won 43 games,
WITHOUT Arenas for most of the year,
WITHOUT Etan Thomas for the whole year,
WITHOUT Caron Butler for 24 games,
WITHOUT a fully healthy Antonio Daniels for half the year.

by Rook6980 on Jun 18, 2008 12:37 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Can you guarantee any or all of those guys will be healthy all year? No. So we just wait until

The answer isn’t getting another player who will play half a season either (JO) but this whole the Status Quo argument ignores the fact that this core group of Wizards were sent home 2 years ago in the first round by the Cavs. It ignores that we have not protected our home court and we still don’t play defense at a playoff level. Not addressing the obvious issues will lead to another early playoff exit. I’ve seen this movie before. I know how it ends.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 18, 2008 10:59 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Any Player Can Get Hurt

Grant Hill spent 4 seasons on injured reserve in his late 20s before playing in 67 games for Orlando in 2004-05, at the age of 32. When he finally got healthy, his game returned to near what it was before his streak of injuries.

Everyone looks at JO and sees the risks. Am I the only one who sees the potential reward? What if JO stays healthy? He played in 69 games two seasons ago and made his 6th All-Star appearance. What if he gets back there? That was only two seasons ago, not exactly ancient history. Why does everyone assume there’s no chance of this, but there’s 100% chance he’ll be injured all season?

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 18, 2008 11:40 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good work....but

This would be a step backwards.

1) That guard lineup in no way is getting the Wizards into the playoffs.

Yea, yea…I hear you….they did it this year….but for some reason a 33 year old, a SG who is no better than a 5th fiddle, two rookies, and one kid in his 2nd year makes my stomach churn.

2) I’m not sure if I agree with this statement:

Not to mention that none of O’Neal’s injuries were ever as serious as Gil’s.

Uh….how do we know that Gil’s knee thing isn’t a one time thing when other players have come back to full strength.

Point is….you gotta look at the cumulative work of O’Neal’s injuries….they seem to be habitual. And being a post player, you think his body is going to continue to take the banging?

3) The ‘Big’ lineup is actually counter productive to Defense.

Sure, O’Neal and Haywood can block shots….but

Daniels has enough trouble keeping up with point guards.
Caron is not quick enough for 2 guards.
Antawn is really not quick enough for 3s.

There will be so many people in the paint that either the bigs will be in constant foul trouble, or teams will be raining even more threes on the Wiz than this past season.

by Truth About It on Jun 17, 2008 3:30 PM EDT   0 recs

My Response
1) That guard lineup in no way is getting the Wizards into the playoffs.

Yea, yea…I hear you….they did it this year….but for some reason a 33 year old, a SG who is no better than a 5th fiddle, two rookies, and one kid in his 2nd year makes my stomach churn.

DeShawn is only 26 and has proven he can be a very effective shooter when he’s not a primary scorer. With JO, AJ, and Tough Juice all on the floor at the same time, I would expect his true shooting percentage to rise back to around where it was two seasons ago at .542. Even last season it was a respectable .529.

Nick Young is only going to get better, and he’ll get better a lot faster if he doesn’t have to fight both DeShawn and Mason for minutes. He averaged 17.4 pp36m last season as a rookie! Expect that number to rise and expect him to improve in all other areas as well.

AD will still be solid if he stays healthy. Russell Westbrook would get a lot of minutes as a rookie and could surprise everybody with how good he is.

2) I’m not sure if I agree with this statement: Not to mention that none of O’Neal’s injuries were ever as serious as Gil’s.

Yeah, the link I referenced for O’Neal’s injuries was not comprehensive, so I take that statement back. Still, I don’t think his recovery is any less probable than Gil’s and his expectations would be a lot lower.

3) The ‘Big’ lineup is actually counter productive to Defense.

That was just an idea. If it doesn’t work, we can try something else. We would probably only use the “big” lineup when playing another team with a “big” lineup, so a lot of those concerns about “keeping up” with other players wouldn’t apply. But when we play a slow, lumbering team like Cleveland, we can actually match-up size-wise against the likes of Ilgauskas, Wallace, Smith, and Varejao.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 4:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

brand

look i dont have the time to do the salary numbers but if this trade would work for oneil who hasnt played up to his maximum ability in a while, why would it not work for brand? i just think he is a much better post scorer is definitley a better boarder and has more heart. i think were as good as the magic at least with him twawn and caron in the front court for a full healthy year. wilbon seemed to like the idea of swinging brand the most as well. I think we could even get creative and get one of the clips young and promising guards if we give up a pick and blatche….

by crichter44 on Jun 17, 2008 7:42 PM EDT   0 recs

Brand is better than O'Neal, yes

I’d rather trade Gilbert for Brand than Gilbert for JO. I’m not sure whether the Clips would, though.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Jun 17, 2008 7:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Also

Who is a promising young guard on the Clippers? Surely you aren’t talking about Livingston…

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Jun 17, 2008 7:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Would Gilbert Go to the Clippers?

I made the argument, I think successfully, that Gil can be talked into going to Indy. I’m not sure he would buy the Clippers, though. If he would, I’d definitely consider it and probably go for it.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 9:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah thats who i was talking about. i think it would really be possible if we threw in the 18th pick. i think the clips would do it gil would give them a local start to compete at the gates with the lakers. gil and hollywood are essentially jack ass meets jack ass heaven… i think ernie could sell it. id personally love to explore gil, antwan, haywood, picks, and blatche for kamen, maghette and brand but this is probably an utter pipe dream.

by crichter44 on Jun 17, 2008 7:58 PM EDT   0 recs

Livingston

Hasn’t been healthy in two years. You really want to take that risk?

I also don’t see how Brand can fit in here unless Jamison is gone. Otherwise, our three best players play two positions, unless you want to be very undersized and play Brand at center. The whole point of getting Brand would be for him to team with Arenas (because he’s basically a better version of Jamison), not be there instead of him.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Jun 17, 2008 8:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good Point
I also don’t see how Brand can fit in here unless Jamison is gone. Otherwise, our three best players play two positions, unless you want to be very undersized and play Brand at center. The whole point of getting Brand would be for him to team with Arenas (because he’s basically a better version of Jamison), not be there instead of him.

I wasn’t thinking about the log-jam this would create at PF. On second thought, Brand wouldn’t work here because we would still need another defender that can play center.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 10:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah....

That’s a pretty liberal use of the word “promising”

by Truth About It on Jun 17, 2008 9:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Livingston hasn’t been cleared for more than one on none work. The Clippers are deciding whether to pay him his free agent tender (5.8Mil) and right now it looks like they’ll let him be an unrestricted FA and negotiate instead of paying that number.

He won’t be available for the summer league either. Maybe some 5 on none. We should trade for Sean May while we;re at it.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 17, 2008 9:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Livingston?

The same Livingston that had a devistating knee injury that required reconstructive surgery?

I’d rather take my chances with Arenas’ meniscus tear, than with Livingston’s reconstructed knee…..

by Rook6980 on Jun 18, 2008 12:39 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Poll

I’m curious to see how much of the community would support a trade of Gilbert Arenas for another impact big around the league. Possibly including Brand, JO, Okafor, or someone else. Basically asking if the deal was on the table, if you were Ernie would you pull the trigger. Anyone else like to see the response? Prada?

Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!

by Evander holyfield on Jun 17, 2008 8:06 PM EDT   0 recs