My "You Be the GM" Entry
by cuppettcj on Jun 16, 2008 8:14 PM EDT
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PrintEditor's Note: From the FanShots. For the record, I am vehemently opposed to trading Gilbert Arenas for Jermaine O'Neal. O'Neal hasn't played more than 69 games in four years. His PER has declined for four straight seasons. He's a below-average rebounder, terribly inefficient shooter, and not much of a shot blocker anymore now that he's been hurt. However, the great thing about this site is that reasonable people can disagree, and this argument is reasonable, like all of cuppettcj's posts and comments.
If such a trade were to somehow happen, I think both players benefit. O'Neal benefits from a more structured offensive system, while Arenas would have the green light at all times in Jim O'Brien's open-court system. Whatever. I need to get off my soapbox and let cuppettcj take the floor.
Step 1: Fire the entire training staff and replace them with competent trainers who can keep the team healthy. I forget where I heard the rumor that the head athletic trainer is friends with the Pollin family, but that would explain a lot. Both success and incompetence should be rewarded appropriately. I think everybody here knows where the Wizards training staff falls.
Step 2: Fire Eddie Jordan. Replace him with either Avery Johnson (first option) or Flip Saunders (second option). I know several of you don't agree with this, but I think I made my point that each of these coaches has proven that they can improve a team beyond the point that Eddie can take us. Furthermore, each of these coaches has shown that they can get their players to commit to defense, something that Eddie Jordan has never been able to do. Defense wins championships. The last team to win a championship without finishing in the top 10 in defense was the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers. Strangely enough, the Lakers won both the season before and the season after, and ranked in the top 7 defensely both of those years. I guess they felt that they were so good offensively that they could take a year off defensively. Whoever coaches the Wizards won't have that luxury, at least not initially. I want a coach that stops giving away easy buckets like they're AOL discs (OK, outdated reference, but I couldn't think of a better one). We tried a different defensive coach, but that didn't do the trick, so it's time to hold the head coach accountable for the team's defensive failings. It's time to bring in some fresh blood.
Step 3: Resign Antawn Jamison to a four year deal, starting at $11.9 million and going up to $12 million for each of the next three years. Why $11.9 million in the first year? To keep us under the luxury tax threshold. Keep reading for more details.
Step 4: Sign and trade Gilbert Arenas, Etan Thomas, and the 18th draft pick to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal and the 11th draft pick. This was a tough decision that I thought long and hard about. I'm a big Agent Zero fan. But in the end it came down to me not willing to take the big gamble on Gil's knee. Six years and $100 million is a lot to invest in a guy who hasn't shown he can be the same healthy player he was over a year ago. Plus, Caron has shown us all that he can step up his game to fill a lot of the void missing when Gil is gone. To reiterate, I don't buy into the theory that the Wizards are better without Gilbert, but I do think the drop-off from Gilbert won't be as great because of Caron. It certainly won't be a $16.4 million per season drop-off.
Of course, acquiring Jermaine O'Neal has its own injury risks, but I believe he brings more upside because he would be filling some of the Wizards' biggest needs, particularly interior defense. Not to mention that none of O'Neal's injuries were ever as serious as Gil's. Besides, even a Jermaine O'Neal at a little less than 100% would be a big improvement for us in the paint, where currently we simply get abused in the playoffs. Furthermore, I think the change in scenery and the higher quality team he would be coming to would improve his attitude and motivate him to get healthy. Of course, a lot of that relies on Step 1 (see above). Oh, and he's only going to turn 30 this October, so it's not exactly like he's over-the-hill.
I can't do the RealGM Trade Checker on this because Gilbert is still unsigned, but his salary at $16.4 million plus Etan's salary of $6,864,200 would add up to $23,264,200, which is less than %125 of Jermaine O'Neal's salary, so it should work under the Traded Player exception.
Why would Indiana want to do this trade? Well, I was surprised when a Pacers fan over at Indy Cornrows suggested it (at my prompting). I suppose that you can attribute it to the desire to dump O'Neal's salary in addition to the upside of acquiring an explosive scorer like Agent Zero. After all, the team's best scorer currently is Danny Granger. There have been rumors swirling aroung the Web lately of the Pacers dumping O'Neal for a lot less, so I would suppose this offer would be a lot more credible than those. In the words of that Pacers fan:
this trade would be nuts but if the Wizards offered either of them Bird would pull the trigger in a second, guaranteed!
So there you go, Pacers fan Brent Jonathan Beck guarantees this deal will go down, what more do you want? :)
Step 5: Use the 11th pick to get either Russell Westbrook or DJ Augustin, whoever falls to that point. I would prefer (and it is more likely) that it would be Russell Westbrook, who is a tremendous defender at the position. According to Draft Express:
Defensively, Westbrook is nothing short of outstanding, as evidenced by the phenomenal work he did locking down the three top scoring guards in the Pac-10 this season, O.J. Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, and James Harden. He is long, strong and very fundamentally sound, getting into a terrific defensive stance on every possession, moving his feet incredibly well, and being absolutely tenacious getting after his matchup. His wingspan, combined with his huge hands and outstanding anticipation skills make him a terror in the passing lanes, and this is a big factor why he spends so much time in transition offensively.
Currently, Russell Westbrook is projected to go 11th in Draft Express's mock draft. What a coincidence! :)
Step 6: Use the 47th pick on Kyle Weaver. Good call by Rook6980 on this idea. Because the Wizards would already have 12 players (including Russell Westbrook), I may have to assign him to the NBDL or place him on the inactive list.
Step 7: Let Roger Mason walk. No surprise here.
Final Salary Breakdown:
Jermaine O'Neal $21,372,000
Antawn Jamison $11,900,000
Caron Butler $ 9,249,980
Antonio Daniels $ 6,200,000
Brendan Haywood $ 5,500,000
Darius Songaila $ 4,234,000
DeShawn Stevenson $ 3,616,071
Andray Blatche $ 2,739,669
Russell Westbrook $ 1,993,560
Nick Young $ 1,602,960
Oleksiy Pecherov $ 1,446,720
Dominic McGuire $ 711,517
Kyle Weaver $ 427,000
----------------- -----------
Totals $70,993,477
Washington Wizards 2008-09 Lineup/Depth Chart:
Center: Jermaine O'Neal, Brendan Haywood
Power Forward: Antawn Jamison, Andray Blatche, Oleksiy Pecherov
Small Forward: Caron Butler, Darius Songaila, Dominic McGuire
Shooting Guard: DeShawn Stevenson, Nick Young
Point Guard: Antonio Daniels, Russell Westbrook, Kyle Weaver
Yes, I realize that Jermaine O'Neal is primarily a power forward, but it wouldn't hurt to have him start at center and then slide over to PF when Brendan enters the game. Alternatively, the Wizards can start big with a line-up like this:
Center: Brendan Haywood
Power Forward: Jermaine O'Neal
Small Forward: Antawn Jamison
Shooting Guard: Caron Butler
Point Guard: Antonio Daniels
Either way, I'm sure the new head coach can find a way to make it work.
So that's it. Queue the criticisms. :
This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.
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Great idea, but
Gilbert would have to agree to going to Indiana in order to make this trade go through.
I don’t see him even considering playing for the Pacers. That would give them a depth chart of:
Gil / Jamal Tinsley / Travis Diener
Danny Granger / Kareem Rush
Dunleavy / Marquis Daniels / Shawne Williams
Troy Murphy / Ike Diogu
Jeff Foster / David Harrison / Etan Thomas
Aside from Gilbert, I’m almost positive the Pacers would go for it, I could see Grunfeld considering it, and I personally like it.
I like the immediate impact of JO in the post, and the #11 pick gives us a great option in the draft. Westbrook would be a magnificent addition. He could become a Devin Harris type point guard.
But what I like most about this deal would be JO’s HUGE contract coming off the books in 2010. That puts us in the running in one of the best free agent classes in recent history, and doesn’t make us gamble our (finally) strong, consistent core of players on the risk of an injury and a huge inactive contract a la Grant Hill (something I’m terrified of).
If you could sell Gilbert on going to Indiana, I’m all for it. Sorry Gil, I still got love for ya.
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on Jun 16, 2008 4:49 PM EDT reply actions
I Think Gil Would Agree to It
I think Gil can be talked into this deal for two reasons:
1) Gil would be paid and treated like a max player in Indiana. He feels he is a max player, that he deserves it, and he would get it there. There would be no discussions about “are the Pacers better without Gilbert?” He heard those discussions with the Wizards this season, he wrote about them in his blog, and he was clearly irritated by them. No such problems in Indiana. He would be the man. The offense would flow through him completely. He would be paid max money, something which the Wizards would be hard pressed to do if they are to also resign Antawn.
2) I think the Pacers would compete in the playoffs with Agent Zero. Consider this enthusiastic Pacer’s fan’s comments on this proposed trade:
The thing ya got to remember about Gilbert is that he is 26…. perfect age for our young core… Granger is 25… and Dunleavy is 27… If we added a low post presence with potential like say Texas A & Ms DeAndre Jordan… just imagine if that 7 footer ended up playing similar to Chris Bosh… our lineup would be lethal! Projected starting 5:
C: Troy Murphy
PF: DeAndre Jordan
SF: Danny Granger
SG: Mike Dunleavy
PG: Gilbert Arenas
Bench
PF: Ike Diogu
SF: Shawne Williams
PG: Travis Diener
PG/SG: Marquis Daniels
C: Jeff Foster
= PLAYOFF CALIBER IN MY MIND, on the contingent that Gilbert becomes an All-Star and maintains his health, and DeAndre blows up with his giant ceiling of potential… we would put a beating on the Wizards even if Jermaine was healthy…. and I guarantee that, or at least hope…
Of course, I don’t share his views on the Pacers beating up the Wizards with that lineup, but I do agree that it would be playoff caliber. The Pacers only missed the playoffs by 1 game this year, if you can believe that! Granger and Dunleavy are already both 19 PPG scorers, and they’re both efficient scorers at that (.571 and .605 true shooting percentage, respectively). Gilbert would obviously make them better by drawing double-teams, thereby giving them more open looks. Those 3 would be Indiana’s Big 3, and their oldest Big 3 player is only 27 years old! A young core to build around, if you ask me.
So I think you could sell Gil on the idea that he would make the Pacers an instant contender in the East. Perhaps as high as the 4th seed, if Gil returns to pre-injured form.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
by cuppettcj on Jun 17, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Indiana seems like a perfect fit for Gilbert
To piggyback…
It’s another basketball-crazy area he could save. With all the bad press the Pacers have received post-brawl, you have to believe the fans would love a charismatic guy like Gilbert who doesn’t get into trouble and is so close with the fans. You also have to believe Gilbert would relish the chance to “save” a basketball town like Indiana.
Better yet, Indiana’s style of play is perfect for Gilbert. They played at the third-fastest pace in the league this year (yes, faster than Phoenix). Only Golden State and Orlando shot more threes per game. In Dunleavy and Granger, Gil has a somewhat similar setup to Hughes/Jamison, and cuppettcj is right, both are pretty solid perimeter scorers.
Indiana would play very little defense in this scenario, but Jim O’Brien is a pretty solid defensive coach, so I wouldn’t worry too much. I don’t know how good Indiana would be, but that’s certainly a playoff team. Like cuppettcj said, they were one spot out this year, and swapping the unproductive and unhappy O’Neal for Arenas would make them better, which is why I’d never consider this trade.
But for Indiana and Gilbert, it’s a perfect fit.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
He'd sell tickets
They were 30th in attendance despite trying to pick things up, run and gun.
Other problem would be financial. They max out Gilbert, Dunleavy and Murphy still have big deals with 3 years remaining, same for Tinsley, how do they pay/keep Granger? This would push them into the luxury tax as well.
Expect the Pacers to Deal Tinsley
From Jamaal Tinsley’s recent player review at Indy Cornrows:
All indications point to the Pacers moving forward without Tinsley. Jim O’Brien has openly mentioned that he can’t rely on Tinsley to lead the team at PG. Most draft speculation revolves around the available point guards, unless of course, the Pacers trade for another point guard. One thing is for sure, Tinsley is no longer the answer at point guard for the Pacers. How the situation is dealt with won’t be known until after the draft but I fully expect this won’t be my last post to include the words ‘dealt’ and ‘Tinsley’ together.
Expect the Pacers to make a move to deal Tinsley and dump at least some of his salary.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
You could write the same thing for the Wiz and Etan, that doesn’t make it any easier to actually trade him somewhere. His is the smallest salary of the bunch at 6+Mil.
Well
At least Tinsley played last season.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Yep
He played 39 games, scored 11.9 with 8 assists per game while shooting 38% from the field. And for that you get to pay him more than 21 Million over the next 3 seasons if you acquire him.
I can't wait to hear how reports of how much we offer Gil
I would also love to be in the room to hear Ernie Grunfeld and Gil negotiating a contract. That would be the most entertaining thing
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on Jun 17, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
What buildings would he paint those O's on in Indy?
If Gil says he wouldn’t sign here without having Jamison locked up, why would he want his pick and pop guy to be replaced with Troy Murphy?
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on Jun 17, 2008 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Meant to respond here cuppettcj
Gil would want to replace Jamison as his pick and pop forward with Troy Murphy?
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on Jun 17, 2008 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Danny Granger...
... would probably be Gil’s pick and pop guy.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Great work
First, I recognize the time that went into it. The more people finding semi-realistic scenarios for change the better the discussion.
But I want no part of Jermaine O’Neal. The deal, the trade, it all works I just hate the piece coming back, even on the shortened contract. That doesn’t make it less likely to happen. AD and Haywood also expire that year. Thats a lot of money coming off at one time.
IMO he’s only going to slide from this point. He’s 30 and that makes him a 12-year vet in the NBA since he was 18 as a rookie. He didn’t get many minutes early on in his career in Portland. When you factor in playoff games and international competitions he has played in 795 games in his career. He’s not a young 30.
He may be damaged goods too. He tore his meniscus in April of 06, but tried and did play on it for awhile. He gutted it out for a stretch and who knows what damage that did to his knee. He was getting hurt before that too. He’s missed 117 games in the past 4 seasons overall. I realize Gilbert is in a near identical situation and they both dragged their injured leg up and down the court last year.
If you draft Westbrook why draft Weaver too? Is he even there at #47? If you get him you’ll have 3 guards who can’t shoot 3’s mixed in with Stephenson and Young, not exactly sharpshooters either. With J.O in the post there will be more of a emphasis placed on players who can space the floor as support players. In that instance Shan Foster, G/F out of Vandy would be best the shooter (potentially) available in the 2nd round. The other guy you might like because he ranks with Weaver in rebounding and defense but scores more and dishes a little less, JR Giddens.
JO Not Expected to Be Great
I wouldn’t expect JO to be the savior for the Wizards. He may be a 6-time All-Star, former MIP, and former 2nd Team All-NBA, but I would only expect him to be at best the 3rd scoring option on offense. Primarily, I want JO for what he brings to defense with his size and shot blocking.
O’Neal’s defensive rating was 105 last season. Not great, but tied for best on the Pacers. If he were a Wizard, he would be tied for best with Andray Blatche (surprise!). Despite what Prada said in his introduction, O’Neal’s shot blocking has not declined. His blocks per 36 minutes for the past 5 seasons are 2.6, 2.1, 2.3, 2.7, and 2.6. His 2.6 bp36m last season would make him the best shot blocker on the Wizards, ahead of Blatche (2.5 bp36m) and Haywood (2.1 bp36m).
His rebounding has declined, but 8.4 rp36m is still not that bad. Plus, with his size and shot blocking he could set up Jamison and Butler for monster rebounding numbers by altering a lot of shots in the paint. Any penetrating guard would have to be aware of his presence and adjust.
Offensively, O’Neal averaged 17.0 pp36m last season, his worst scoring since 2000-2001. Yet, that would still place him as the 3rd highest scoring front-court player on the Wizards and the 4th highest scoring player, behind only Jamison, Butler, and Young. He would certainly be an upgrade over either Haywood (13.7 pp36m) or Blatche (13.3 pp36m). We could have him alternate posting up with Jamison to give us a true inside-out offense.
As far as him being washed up, past his prime, and an old 30, I really think that placing him around two other All-Stars will really help improve his attitude, confidence, and motivation. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that he can get back to the level he was playing at two seasons ago, when he was averaging 19.6 pp36m, 9.7 rp36m, and 2.7 bp36m. And if he doesn’t, we simply cut our losses in two seasons and sign another big name to take his place. A lot better scenario than watching an injured Arenas bog down our team salary for the next 6 seasons, which is the other risk we take by keeping him.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
I'd argue some of those per/36 numbers don't tell as much as usual
Because they aren’t pace-adjusted. Normally, that’s not a big deal, but Indiana was one of the fastest teams in the league last year and the Wizards were one of the slowest. Indiana played an average of eight possessions a game more than Washington. If you adjust for pace, O’Neal’s per/36 numbers look worse, and they mirror Haywood’s more closely.
8.4 rebounds/36 isn’t awful, but it’s worse than Haywood, and worse yet, Jermaine’s rebound rate was a paltry 12.8%, which is even worse than Blatche. And sure, JO can score, but even at his best, he was not efficient in doing so. His career-best true shooting percentage is 53.9%. Haywood’s career-worst is 54%.
At best, JO is a very, very slight upgrade over Haywood, and he costs four times as much for the same number of years. JO’s biggest pluses are his “paint-presence,” but Haywood’s a pretty solid paint presence himself. The biggest problem with the Wizards’ defense all year was really perimeter defense. I wouldn’t let a six-game sample with Cleveland (arguably the best rebounding team in the league) sway that.
Now, there’s a legitimate argument to be made that JO’s 2007/08 season was an aberration, and Haywood’s was as well in the opposite direction. Perhaps, but with O’Neal over 30 and an injury-risk, I’m inclined to believe we’ll see more of the same from JO in the future. Gilbert, at least, is 26, and a less-explosive Gilbert is still close to three times as valuable as Daniels, who is a nice backup, but is also 33 and can’t shoot. I’d rather take the risk that Gilbert’s long-term deal clogs our cap that paying three times as much for two years for a slight upgrade on Brendan Haywood while downgrading significantly at the point.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Do you mean?
That JO is just a “very, very slight” upgrade over BTH on the defensive end only?
I’m not sure if you have factoring offense into your assessment.
No, I'm talking the whole package
JO scores more, but is far more inefficient than Haywood. That seems like a wash to me.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Great
Because they aren’t pace-adjusted. Normally, that’s not a big deal, but Indiana was one of the fastest teams in the league last year and the Wizards were one of the slowest. Indiana played an average of eight possessions a game more than Washington. If you adjust for pace, O’Neal’s per/36 numbers look worse, and they mirror Haywood’s more closely.
OK, you made me start up OpenOffice Calc to do the math. :) Below are JO’s numbers last season per 36 minutes, compared to Brendan’s, adjusted to the Wizards pace:
Player Points Rebounds Blocks Assists ------ ------ -------- ------ ------- Jermaine O'Neal 15.62 7.72 2.39 2.57 Brendan Haywood 13.70 9.30 2.10 1.10
So yeah, Brendan is a better rebounder. But JO is still a better scorer, passer, and shot blocker. Basically, even adjusted for pace, JO is still a better player in one of his worst seasons then Brendan is in his best.
At best, JO is a very, very slight upgrade over Haywood, and he costs four times as much for the same number of years. JO’s biggest pluses are his "paint-presence," but Haywood’s a pretty solid paint presence himself.
...
I’d rather take the risk that Gilbert’s long-term deal clogs our cap that paying three times as much for two years for a slight upgrade on Brendan Haywood while downgrading significantly at the point.
Great, so why don’t we just clone Brendan Haywood. That way, when Brendan gets in foul trouble because the Wizards don’t have another big that can guard anybody, we can bring in Brendan 2 and get the same production!
Seriously, I would be bringing in JO not to replace Haywood, but to complement him. Brendan’s great, but we need someone who can guard the paint when he’s not on the floor. Currently, when Brendan leaves the game with his 3rd foul early in the 2nd quarter, the Wizards defense rolls out the red carpet in the lane. Last season, Brendan averaged 27.9 mpg. That’s 20.1 mpg that we defend the paint with pillowly-soft and/or undersized forwards. Wouldn’t it be nice to have a player that’s better than Brendan to start the game, then replace that player with Brendan? Imagine having a defense that’s capable of protecting the paint for a full 48 minutes. It’s easy if you try. :)
Ironically, even if we could clone Brendan, we’d be unable to sign him at his cloned salary of $5.5 million, still sign Antawn and Gilbert, and stay under the luxury tax threshold. That’s the problem with the status quo, we can’t improve the team. Albert Einstein once defined the word insanity as, “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Same coach, same Big 3, same lack of size and interior defense, same result in the playoffs, to the same team! Are we insane to expect next season to be any different if we don’t add anybody significant?
The biggest problem with the Wizards’ defense all year was really perimeter defense.
No kidding. It’s kind of hard for the Wizards guards to lock down on their man on the perimeter when they’re constantly collapsing into the paint to stop another team’s big from steamrolling his way to the basket! Imagine having a defense that doesn’t require a double-team in the low-post on every possession, allowing Wizards guards to stay home on their man. It’s easy if you try. Maybe someday you’ll join me, and the world will be one. :)
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Yeah, except....
You said: “Same coach, same Big 3, same lack of size and interior defense, same result in the playoffs, to the same team! Are we insane to expect next season to be any different if we don’t add anybody significant?”
When has Eddie Jordan had the same Big 3, together, and healthy for a full year? Never!
Blow up the team, simply because 2 years in a row, the Wizards have had injury problems?
Detroit played all year with each of their starters only missing a few games. Think where the Wizards could have been if Arenas had played the entire year, and if Caron didn’t miss those 24 games….. Not to mention if their back-up center had not been lost for the entire year… and their ONLY OTHER point guard didn’t play with a bum wrist for half the season.
You must realize that a fully healthy Wizards team could have been MUCH better in the standings…. possibly enough to win 50 or 55 games. Certainly enough to win 2 more games and secure home court advantage against Cleveland.
Home court may have been enough to propel them to the Eastern Conference Finals (where they probably would have lost to the Boston Celtics)...
Yeah, I Hear You
When has Eddie Jordan had the same Big 3, together, and healthy for a full year? Never!
I know all about the Wizards injury problems these past two seasons. I even made the same arguments you’re making when arguing with David Friedman about Gilbert’s value to the team. But that was before the playoffs, which was kind of an eye-opener for me. I thought going into the playoffs that our team was destined to end the curse against Cleveland. Our team was younger, quicker, more athletic, and healthier than they had been in over a year. Plus, Cleveland’s starting point guard Sasha Pavlocic was out with injury, and Ben Wallace and LeBron James were both battling sore backs. Surely we could get over the hump in this scenario. But no.
The Ghost of Christmas Past visited us yet again. We were absolutely abused in the low post and in the paint. Our forwards were getting manhandled down low, getting pushed around like rag dolls and helplessly looking at the refs for over-the-back whistles that never came. If I had a nickel for every time Wallace or Ilgauskas grabbed a rebound over the back of the undersized Antawn or Songaila in the paint, I’d be a much richer man. Antawn and Songaila are good rebounders, but they didn’t have the size or toughness to stand up to Cleveland in the paint. A healthy Gilbert would not have made a difference in this regard.
Our low post offense didn’t scare any of their defenders. After consistently getting Brendan in foul trouble, they would play tough, physical one-on-one defense on Antawn, making him beat them with jump shots while staying home on our perimeter shooters. We became nothing more than a jump-shooting team, basically a slightly better version of last season’s Bulls. Cleveland’s defense made us earn every shot, often getting hands in our faces. We couldn’t convert.
Defensively, it was the same broken record. We’d collapse our defense into the paint to stop either penetration from James or Ilgauskas from steamrolling his way to the basket. Inevitably, that left a man open on the perimeter, and like good professional basketball players do, they made their wide-open shots. At times our defense was so bad, even when we double-teamed LeBron, he still got the shot he wanted. Would a healthy Gilbert have stopped this?
Even when Eddie Jordan had a healthy roster to work with, he never had the Wizards playing good defense. Although not entirely his fault, that is the problem. As Boston proved last night, good defense beats good offense. Considering that, it’s not surprising that we find ourselves in the same position as the Nuggets and Warriors season after season come playoff time.
Blow up the team, simply because 2 years in a row, the Wizards have had injury problems?
I don’t know why you would consider my moves “blowing up the team.” I’m basically just keeping the same core guys from last season, replacing the coach and training staff, and adding a key piece to the starting line-up and our defense.
You must realize that a fully healthy Wizards team could have been MUCH better in the standings…. possibly enough to win 50 or 55 games. Certainly enough to win 2 more games and secure home court advantage against Cleveland.Home court may have been enough to propel them to the Eastern Conference Finals (where they probably would have lost to the Boston Celtics)...
I do realize that we would have been better, but probably not enough to overtake Orlando for the 3rd seed. We would have still played Cleveland, which is always a bad matchup for our team as currently constructed. Who knows, we might have squeaked by them with the home-court advantage, but it would also have been very possible that we wouldn’t.
We would have then met Boston in the second round, not the conference finals. It would have been a tough matchup for the Celts, but we would have still lost. So maybe a healthy version of our current roster gets us a few wins in the second round. Not much better than 2004-2005.
Not to mention if their back-up center had not been lost for the entire year…
Actually, I think this was a good thing for our team. Remember what it was like when Etan was healthy? Here’s a refresher course:
ORLANDO, Nov. 6—Washington Wizards centers Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood were involved in a physical altercation last Thursday in which the two traded punches at Verizon Center, according to two team sources.One source, who requested anonymity because the team was trying to keep the incident private, said Thomas was angry over comments made by Haywood’s agent, Andy Miller, on Oct. 30.
Miller was critical of Coach Eddie Jordan’s decision to select Thomas as the starting center over Haywood, believing Jordan chose Thomas out of personal animosity toward Haywood rather than performance. “My concern is that this is based on personal issues rather than professional ones,” Miller said the day of the decision.
And another refresher, this occurred later in the same season:
“The entire situation doesn’t make sense,” said Thomas, whose minutes have fluctuated since he returned after missing 13 games with a sprained ankle. “I am trying to find my rhythm after missing a month with this ankle injury, trying to put together some decent games, feeling good to be a part of everything that the team is accomplishing, and this cat decides to hit me with a cheap shot during practice and I reacted. I could have turned the other cheek. I guess I didn’t.”
I’ve made the argument before that one of the big reasons that Haywood improved so much this past season was because he didn’t have to look back over his shoulder the entire time to see if Eddie was going to pull out the hook and replace him with Etan. With Etan being hurt all season, there was no competition for the starting job, and therefore no fireworks. With Etan coming back healthy next season, however, the fireworks risk returning. All of Haywood’s progress from last season is in jeopardy, unless we either move Haywood (bad idea), move Etan (difficult without giving up somebody valuable), or replace the head coach, who’s partial towards Etan starting. My proposal solves this issue completely.
Honestly, I hope I’m wrong about all of this. Most likely, Ernie is not going to do any of the things I would do. He’s more likely to follow your plan, Rook. Which means that I’m just going to hope for the best and “drink the Kool-Aid” for another season, so to speak. We’ll probably get at least a little better with the status quo, but so will many other teams in the East. I can only hope that everything comes together better than they have the past four seasons.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Another Thing About Pace
It might be misleading to think that a PF or C would score less when adjusted to a slower pace. Typically a faster pace benefits smaller, faster players who can get to the rim in transition without fear of getting their shot blocked. Normally, in a half-court set offense, these players are reduced to jump-shooters.
PFs or Cs, on the other hand, might see their percentage of shots per possession increase in a slower offense, and thereby negate the pace difference to their scoring per minute. So it’s possible that JO is still a much better scorer than Brendan. In fact, I think he is.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
I think he would be very happy to get our of Indiana. He would definitely get a boost out of that but that doesn’t fix his knee, or the related thigh/groin injuries that came up while he tried to play on the knee.
By the numbers, O’Neal has played in almost the same number of NBA games (regulation and playoff) and Intl games for Team USA as Jamison has played in 3 years of college and 10 years in the NBA. AJ comes in at 852, O’Neal just over 800.
About Weaver
If you draft Westbrook why draft Weaver too? Is he even there at #47? If you get him you’ll have 3 guards who can’t shoot 3’s mixed in with Stephenson and Young, not exactly sharpshooters either. With J.O in the post there will be more of a emphasis placed on players who can space the floor as support players. In that instance Shan Foster, G/F out of Vandy would be best the shooter (potentially) available in the 2nd round. The other guy you might like because he ranks with Weaver in rebounding and defense but scores more and dishes a little less, JR Giddens.
You’re probably right. I basically just need an emergency guard in case of injuries. A more offensive guard would probably be a better option, like the ones you mentioned.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Gamble...
I think relying on Jermaine is a bigger gamble than holding on to Arenas. He’s a big man with questionable injuries.
But I’m also biased because I love Gil so much.
Jamison is pretty durable
so I wouldn’t worry about that. His age is the far bigger concern. Are we really close enough to choose a 32-year old over a 26-year old?
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Jermaine O'Neal Will Turn 30 in October
Not 32. Or will you talking about Jamison? I’m confused.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
I Think se7en Was Talking About JO
That’s why I’m confused.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Yeah, he was
That’s my fault, I didn’t make myself more clear.
If we’re choosing between Gil and Jamison, I’d rather us re-sign Gil and let Jamison go. Of course, Jamison’s market value is lower than Arenas’, but if this is the type of package we’d get for Arenas, I’d be inclined to pass.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Gilbert Has Already Nixed That Idea
If we’re choosing between Gil and Jamison, I’d rather us re-sign Gil and let Jamison go.
I would too, but Gilbert has already said, if you remember, that he wouldn’t come back if Antawn isn’t back too. Of course, knowing Gilbert, he could change his mind on this. But assuming he doesn’t, that means either keep both and don’t improve the team or trade Gilbert and take a chance that you do improve the team. I chose option 2.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
How about option 3?
Keep the same team together, and see if they can stay HEALTHY?
They won 43 games,
WITHOUT Arenas for most of the year,
WITHOUT Etan Thomas for the whole year,
WITHOUT Caron Butler for 24 games,
WITHOUT a fully healthy Antonio Daniels for half the year.
Can you guarantee any or all of those guys will be healthy all year? No. So we just wait until
The answer isn’t getting another player who will play half a season either (JO) but this whole the Status Quo argument ignores the fact that this core group of Wizards were sent home 2 years ago in the first round by the Cavs. It ignores that we have not protected our home court and we still don’t play defense at a playoff level. Not addressing the obvious issues will lead to another early playoff exit. I’ve seen this movie before. I know how it ends.
Any Player Can Get Hurt
Grant Hill spent 4 seasons on injured reserve in his late 20s before playing in 67 games for Orlando in 2004-05, at the age of 32. When he finally got healthy, his game returned to near what it was before his streak of injuries.
Everyone looks at JO and sees the risks. Am I the only one who sees the potential reward? What if JO stays healthy? He played in 69 games two seasons ago and made his 6th All-Star appearance. What if he gets back there? That was only two seasons ago, not exactly ancient history. Why does everyone assume there’s no chance of this, but there’s 100% chance he’ll be injured all season?
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Good work....but
This would be a step backwards.
1) That guard lineup in no way is getting the Wizards into the playoffs.
Yea, yea…I hear you….they did it this year….but for some reason a 33 year old, a SG who is no better than a 5th fiddle, two rookies, and one kid in his 2nd year makes my stomach churn.
2) I’m not sure if I agree with this statement:
Not to mention that none of O’Neal’s injuries were ever as serious as Gil’s.
Uh….how do we know that Gil’s knee thing isn’t a one time thing when other players have come back to full strength.
Point is….you gotta look at the cumulative work of O’Neal’s injuries….they seem to be habitual. And being a post player, you think his body is going to continue to take the banging?
3) The ‘Big’ lineup is actually counter productive to Defense.
Sure, O’Neal and Haywood can block shots….but
Daniels has enough trouble keeping up with point guards.
Caron is not quick enough for 2 guards.
Antawn is really not quick enough for 3s.
There will be so many people in the paint that either the bigs will be in constant foul trouble, or teams will be raining even more threes on the Wiz than this past season.
My Response
1) That guard lineup in no way is getting the Wizards into the playoffs.Yea, yea…I hear you….they did it this year….but for some reason a 33 year old, a SG who is no better than a 5th fiddle, two rookies, and one kid in his 2nd year makes my stomach churn.
DeShawn is only 26 and has proven he can be a very effective shooter when he’s not a primary scorer. With JO, AJ, and Tough Juice all on the floor at the same time, I would expect his true shooting percentage to rise back to around where it was two seasons ago at .542. Even last season it was a respectable .529.
Nick Young is only going to get better, and he’ll get better a lot faster if he doesn’t have to fight both DeShawn and Mason for minutes. He averaged 17.4 pp36m last season as a rookie! Expect that number to rise and expect him to improve in all other areas as well.
AD will still be solid if he stays healthy. Russell Westbrook would get a lot of minutes as a rookie and could surprise everybody with how good he is.
2) I’m not sure if I agree with this statement: Not to mention that none of O’Neal’s injuries were ever as serious as Gil’s.
Yeah, the link I referenced for O’Neal’s injuries was not comprehensive, so I take that statement back. Still, I don’t think his recovery is any less probable than Gil’s and his expectations would be a lot lower.
3) The ‘Big’ lineup is actually counter productive to Defense.
That was just an idea. If it doesn’t work, we can try something else. We would probably only use the “big” lineup when playing another team with a “big” lineup, so a lot of those concerns about “keeping up” with other players wouldn’t apply. But when we play a slow, lumbering team like Cleveland, we can actually match-up size-wise against the likes of Ilgauskas, Wallace, Smith, and Varejao.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
brand
look i dont have the time to do the salary numbers but if this trade would work for oneil who hasnt played up to his maximum ability in a while, why would it not work for brand? i just think he is a much better post scorer is definitley a better boarder and has more heart. i think were as good as the magic at least with him twawn and caron in the front court for a full healthy year. wilbon seemed to like the idea of swinging brand the most as well. I think we could even get creative and get one of the clips young and promising guards if we give up a pick and blatche….
Brand is better than O'Neal, yes
I’d rather trade Gilbert for Brand than Gilbert for JO. I’m not sure whether the Clips would, though.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Also
Who is a promising young guard on the Clippers? Surely you aren’t talking about Livingston…
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Would Gilbert Go to the Clippers?
I made the argument, I think successfully, that Gil can be talked into going to Indy. I’m not sure he would buy the Clippers, though. If he would, I’d definitely consider it and probably go for it.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
yeah thats who i was talking about. i think it would really be possible if we threw in the 18th pick. i think the clips would do it gil would give them a local start to compete at the gates with the lakers. gil and hollywood are essentially jack ass meets jack ass heaven… i think ernie could sell it. id personally love to explore gil, antwan, haywood, picks, and blatche for kamen, maghette and brand but this is probably an utter pipe dream.
Livingston
Hasn’t been healthy in two years. You really want to take that risk?
I also don’t see how Brand can fit in here unless Jamison is gone. Otherwise, our three best players play two positions, unless you want to be very undersized and play Brand at center. The whole point of getting Brand would be for him to team with Arenas (because he’s basically a better version of Jamison), not be there instead of him.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Good Point
I also don’t see how Brand can fit in here unless Jamison is gone. Otherwise, our three best players play two positions, unless you want to be very undersized and play Brand at center. The whole point of getting Brand would be for him to team with Arenas (because he’s basically a better version of Jamison), not be there instead of him.
I wasn’t thinking about the log-jam this would create at PF. On second thought, Brand wouldn’t work here because we would still need another defender that can play center.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Livingston hasn’t been cleared for more than one on none work. The Clippers are deciding whether to pay him his free agent tender (5.8Mil) and right now it looks like they’ll let him be an unrestricted FA and negotiate instead of paying that number.
He won’t be available for the summer league either. Maybe some 5 on none. We should trade for Sean May while we;re at it.
Livingston?
The same Livingston that had a devistating knee injury that required reconstructive surgery?
I’d rather take my chances with Arenas’ meniscus tear, than with Livingston’s reconstructed knee…..
Poll
I’m curious to see how much of the community would support a trade of Gilbert Arenas for another impact big around the league. Possibly including Brand, JO, Okafor, or someone else. Basically asking if the deal was on the table, if you were Ernie would you pull the trigger. Anyone else like to see the response? Prada?
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on Jun 17, 2008 8:06 PM EDT reply actions
And on the specific trade
I suppose I’ll mention that I don’t think our interior game is so bad that we need to trade our best player just to upgrade over Jamison or Haywood. I like that starting tandem. It’s the guy behind them that need to get better.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
True
I guess I’m so anxious for next year already that I have so many thoughts/scenarios going through my mind all the time. But watching this replay against the C’s reminds me of how excited I am to watch Andray and NY next year.
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on Jun 17, 2008 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Bingo
Given that Jamison is a minus defensively it creates a bigger need for a reserve center who can defend front line players with some effectiveness. If there’s a guy on Indy that fits the description its Jeff Foster. Not the biggest but he consistently defends and rebounds better players effectively.
Other guys worth taking a look at:
Kurt Thomas, Ernie signed him when he was with the Knicks.
Marcus Camby, Ernie also brought Camby to the Knicks.
Mikki Moore, long lean C/F playing for less than the MLE with Sacramento.
Diop in Free Agency although he can probably get more elsewhere.
If nothing else, Theo Ratliff. Showed better than expected in his late work with Detroit.
The theme is big men who can defend and have playoff experience.
Why I Didn't Go This Route
Yeah, simply grabbing a decent backup center was my initial idea, but the salary numbers just don’t work. All of those guys mentioned above would command at least the MLE, and we can’t afford to give anybody the full MLE if we keep Gil and Antawn. Gil has already said he won’t come back without Antawn, so that means to add anybody significant we would have to trade Gil or let him walk.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Not really
Foster, Moore, and Camby are under contract. We would have to make a deal and match salaries. Hoopshype.com puts Camby’s salary at 15.6 over 2 years. A recent BLston Globe article stated he is due 10 and 11 million over the same span. Although, I think the writer was just giving him the 10% bump for his current salary when it actually decreases.
Chad Ford is ‘reporting’ the Kings are interested in Hibbert again. With Miller and Hawes already there and the recently acquired Shelden Williams playing the 4 they can afford to move Moore.
Kurt Thomas is not going to get the full MLE. He’s going to be playing somewhere for the vet minimum. Ernie could make a play that he is the vet experience we need up front. Having a presence like Thomas would certainly help our young bigs defensively. They aren’t learning the craft of defense from AJ. The full BAE would be more than worth it. Include an agreement that he won’t be traded without his consent as well.
I have a feeling very few players will get the full MLE anymore, the economics just don’t work. GMs have figured that out and they’re being punished by bad MLE contracts hurting their flexibility. We have two perfect examples of the MLE gone astray. Steve Blake didn’t get it last year. Moore thought he would but came up a bit short on money and years.
I Hope You're Right
If so, then I’d be all for getting any of those players. Certainly a lot better than sitting on the status quo.
Just out of curiosity, who do you think we should trade to acquire either Foster, Moore, or Camby? What would we have to give up to make the salaries work, and wouldn’t hurt our team that much?
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Considering Diop is out of monetary range, I would rank them:
Camby
Foster
KThomas
Moore
Foster is in the last year of his deal. That puts a premium on him that we may not want to pay. I doubt Songalia and #47 get it done. Songalia and #18 is too much.
Camby is due 8Mil. He does have incentives in his contract:
Nuggets center Marcus Camby played his 65th game Wednesday, assuring he’ll receive his full $2 million seasonal bonus for games played. By reaching 65, Camby also is eligible for statistical bonuses, which netted another $1.25 million last season.
Because the Nuggets will pay the dollar-for-dollar luxury tax, a $3.25 million Camby bonus haul would cost them $6.5 million.
I believe for trade purposes his salary remains at 8. It would take Songalia and likely Stevenson, maybe a pick too for money to work and for the cap to allow us to find a vet replacement for Stevenson (Maurice Evans?). I was Ok with the money we paid Stevenson because it was ‘market rate’ but at the same time 2’s who play D and can shoot well are in good supply should we have to replace him.
Denver traded Reggie Evans and is losing Najera in free agency. JR Smith is a restricted FA. Songalia would replace Najera’s hustle, rebounding and outside shooting plus passing ability, without crippling them financially. Stevenson gives them a decent shooter, an upgrade defensively, and more tattoos. Denver can probably get more for Camby but that 18th pick might be the clincher.
Kurt Thomas would be offered the BAE with the idea of him being a player/coach in many respects. This has to be a relationship signing about more than just basketball because he will have contenders lining up to pay him the vet minimum.
Moore would be the most attainable IMO. Sactown has picks 42 and 43 in the draft as well. Moore, 42, and 43 for Songalia and 18 would be steep considering Moore is going into the final year of his deal.
Indiana might want AD
Especially if they dump Tinsley and draft a point guard like D.J. Augustin. AD’s contract also runs out in time to get a jump-start on the 2010 free agent class, though Foster’s runs out earlier.
I’d trade AD and 47 for Foster in a heartbeat, then draft Chalmers and try to re-sign Mason. That’d give us a second unit of Mason, Young, Blatche, Songaila and Foster, with Chalmers, McGuire and Pech as the 11-13 men. We could buy out Etan or use him as an emergency center.
I’d rather not trade for Camby, to be honest. He’s too old, too expensive, doesn’t protect the paint as much as he swats at shots, and would cost us too much.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Possible
But I can’t see anyone taking on Tinsley’s contract. I also wonder if they would want AD considering Jim O’Brien prefers shooters everywhere.
One place that might look favorably at AD is Phoenix. AD played with Kerr and Porter in San Antonio.
Unless you're talking about Dwight Howard....
There are not that many elite level big men available… (and I know, Dwight Howard is not available)...
JO has had injury problems.. is starting to play “old” (getting his shot blocked more than any other big man in the NBA)...
Brand is a good player, but Jamison puts up similar numbers (except blocks)... and you can’t play them together…
Okafor is a step below Brand, but essentially the same kind of player, with the same problems in the Wizards system.
Of the other elite bigs in the league (Dwight Howard, Stoudemire, Marcus Camby, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, Chris Bosh, Kevin Garnett, David West, Carlos Boozer, Pau Gasol) – I’d do the trade in a New York minute… but good luck prying any of those players away from their teams.
Another Advantage of My Proposal
Take a closer look at the second entry for each position in my proposed line-up:
Center: Brendan Haywood Power Forward: Andray Blatche Small Forward: Darius Songaila Shooting Guard: Nick Young Point Guard: Russell Westbrook
Tell me that wouldn’t be one of the best second units in the NBA.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
That's Funny
Because he started in place of Caron for several games and did quite well. It was either him or Antawn guarding opposing SFs, I can’t remember which. You would think that that would be a liability either way, but if I remember correctly, the Wizards had a winning record with Darius and Antawn at the forward positions. So they couldn’t have been that bad defensively. Or at least not much worse than the regular Wizards defense.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
JO is intriguing
i’d be hoping for JO to play like he did earlier in his career, where i think there wouldn’t be a comparison between him and BTH in terms of productivity (JO would be much much better). but who knows if he can return to that form?
the great thing is that we’d only have two years committed to him. so if it didn’t work out, we wouldn’t be on the hook too bad. i REALLY like that fact about this scenario.
i also don’t like the idea of bringing JO in and resigning AJ. seems like AJ would likely be a sixth man in that scenario, and that’s a lot to pay for a sixth man. like truthaboutit, i think we’d need to make a move in the backcourt with that team, and AJ’s and JO’s salaries would make it tough to do that.
if you let AJ and GA go, bring in JO, and also make some kind of improvement in the backcourt, that might be worth a two year experiment. i wouldn’t be disgusted if ernie did that.
JO would really have to redeem himself though, because his stock has slipped significantly in recent years.
last comment i’d make is i’d have loyalty problems if the team lets AJ go. i think he’s established himself as one of the all-time great bullets/wizards, and i’d like to see him finish his career in DC for better or worse. a huge part of me thinks that’s the right thing to do.
it’s funny but i don’t feel that way about gilbert at this point.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Jun 18, 2008 11:41 AM EDT reply actions
JO is a Risk
I’m not questioning that. But where everybody else sees the glass half-empty, I’m seeing a glass half-full with the potential of a full glass. JO has tremendous upside for our team. It was only two years ago that he played in 69 games and made his 6th All-Star appearance. If he can get his health and his game back to a level close to that, then he’d be hugely valuable to our team, because he’d fill a very big need.
I also want to hold onto AJ. I see JO playing alongside AJ as a center to start the game, and then sliding to PF for periods of time when Brendan is on the court. JO has the size and some experience playing center, so I would rather experiment with that before I would let AJ go.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Correction
It was only two years ago that he played in 69 games and made his 6th All-Star appearance.
JO played in the 2007 All-Star Game. That was only 16 months ago, not two years.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
brand
Tell me how many teams it would scare you for brand to play center against with jamison and caron starting as well. And even if that does happen we can just start haywood and slide everyone over, and we could use different combo lineups. I dont really see brand and jamison as the same player, one is more a slasher the other a bruiser in the post….. i just think this, if nick young gets a lot better and someone else can emerge into a real threat, gives us the best chance to go far.
Then he tore his meniscus in April of 07. Then he played on that knee when he shouldn’t have. Then he played 42 games last year with thigh and groin issues including a stretch at the end of the season in which he couldn’t play more than 20 minutes.
That 69 is great because its the high point since 03-04. What about the 51 in played the year prior, or 44 the year before that? This year’s 42 was not the exception to the norm, it was much closer to the norm, whereas that 69 stands out as an aberration that you hope will become the norm. There is more risk because of all these things, in addition to playing almost as many games as Jamison over their full careers and college for AJ.
It's a Risk I'm Willing to Take
It’s a two year experiment. If it doesn’t work, we sign someone else and move on. You continue to only look at potential for failure while failing to acknowledge any potential for reward. And you continue to obsess over games played, even though Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Shawn Kemp, and several other players played in more games and more minutes before age 30 than Jermaine O’Neal, and their bodies are perfectly fine. His time on the court is not the issue, it’s his injuries. But players like him have come back from injury plagued seasons to contribute heavily to their teams. What about Alonzo Mourning in 2006 and 2007? What about Grant Hill the past two seasons? Marcus Camby went through two injury plagued seasons earlier this decade, was he washed up? Dwyane Wade hasn’t played in more than 51 games for two seasons, is he over the hill? There’s an injury risk for anybody. Gilbert was 25 and in excellent shape when he blew out his knee and hasn’t been the same since. He played in less games last season than JO did. How do you know that’s not the norm for him post-injury? What makes you think he won’t be the next Grant Hill circa 2000?
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Shawn Kemp, and several other players played in more games and more minutes before age 30 than Jermaine O’Neal
How many of them have missed 117 games over the past four seasons like JO? He is the one making 20+Mil for 40 games a year. His name isn’t Kobe or Garnett or Kemp or Wade. He doesn’t have their injury history, he has his own immense rap sheet of ailments that span a much longer time span than the 2 years you throw around.
How much does Grant Hill make now? Grant Hill the past two seasons has put up 14 and 4 on average. Whereas in his prime he was a 20/9/7 player. This comparison actually works against you. And its your best case scenario. We get JO, he goes against his history and plays most of the season, but his numbers are at best 60-70% of what he did in his prime. That makes him a 14ish-7ish player who is struggling close to the rim. He shot 47% from close range this season.
I said from the beginning that JO, IMO, is done. I’m not failing to see the potential, I see it and its two years from now when he comes off the books. In between we struggle to make the playoffs as Indy, ATL and Philly all improve right past us. During those seasons ticket sales are down because JO, unlike Gilbert, doesn’t sell tickets, which is exactly why Abe and Ernie would never do this deal.
Grant Hill
Grant Hill is also 35 years old. He’s not the best case scenario of what could happen because he’s not 30, like JO. Your whole argument was that JO’s an “old” 30 because he’s played so many games, but that argument doesn’t make any sense. All of those names I mentioned above played in more games and more minutes than JO before the age of 30, and yet their bodies were just fine then and in the case of Kobe and Garnett, they’re still fine. It’s not the minutes that make you old, it’s your age that makes you old. Grant Hill puts up numbers that you would expect him to put up at 35. Back in 2004-05, his first healthy season in four years, Grant Hill was a 20ish-5ish-3ish player, about what you would expect from him at age 32. He’s a good example because it shows you that any player can come back from years of injury-plagued seasons to contribute regularly for their teams. Alonzo Mourning was another example. So was Marcus Camby. And I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Dwyane Wade made a full recovery after two injury-plagued seasons and put up age-appropriate numbers next season. There’s always a risk that a player will get hurt in a season. But there is also the possibility that a player will stay healthy and contribute.
Grant Hill is also a perfect example of the opposite scenario. When he signed with Orlando, he was only 28. By your definition, he was a very “young” 28, having only played in 435 NBA games. In addition, he had absolutely no history of injury problems, playing in almost all of his teams games up until then. But that didn’t stop him from getting hurt and missing the majority of the next 3 seasons. What if that’s Gilbert Arenas? You would be paying him max money to sit on the bench and type in his blog. If you think we’d struggle to make the playoffs with AJ, Caron, and JO, how much more would we struggle if it’s just AJ and Caron? You would be the one taking the bigger risk, because unlike my scenario, you’d be unable to cut your losses after 2 seasons. You’d be paying an oft-injured player close to $20 million all the way into 2014.
And what’s the payoff if Gilbert doesn’t reaggravate his knee yet again? That he plays just as well as he did before the injury? Just as well and healthy as he, AJ, and Caron were when they lost to Cleveland in the first round 3 seasons ago? Of course, all three have improved their games since then, but so haven’t LeBron for Cleveland, Dwight Howard for Orlando, and many other young stars in the East. You’re going to have to hit a moving target if you want us to compete in the conference, and you won’t get there by sitting on your hands and taking the status quo. If JO gets healthy and contributes like he used to, he’d fill a huge need for the Wizards with his defense, shot blocking, and post game. If Gil gets healthy and contributes like he used to, the Wizards will still have a pillowy-soft interior defense that won’t get us anywhere come playoff time.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
All of those names I mentioned above played in more games and more minutes than JO before the age of 30, and yet their bodies were just fine then and in the case of Kobe and Garnett, they’re still fine.
That would be fantastic if we were trading for Kobe or Garnett. We aren’t. In this scenario we’re trading for a guy who does get hurt and stay hurt, a guy who has missed 117 games over the past 4 seasons. Comparing him to players that don’t get hurt doesn’t change the fact that he does.
About Players Who Sell Tickets
During those seasons ticket sales are down because JO, unlike Gilbert, doesn’t sell tickets, which is exactly why Abe and Ernie would never do this deal.
I believe that this has always been a huge misconception people have about big name players and their ability to sell tickets. In reading Michael Lewis’s book Moneyball, about the Oakland Athletics and how they are able to compete with such a small payroll, Lewis recalls how A’s GM Billy Beane tried to convince a blue ribbon panel how poor teams couldn’t compete in Major League Baseball because they couldn’t afford the big name stars:
When it suited his purposes Billy could throw the best pity party this side of the Last Supper. He told the Blue Ribbon Panel that the Oakland A’s inability to afford famous stars meant that no matter how well the team performed, the fans stayed away – which was the opposite of the truth. All the A’s marketing studies showed that the main thing fans cared about was winning. Win with nobodies and the fans showed up, and the nobodies became stars; lose with stars and the fans stayed home, and the stars became nobodies. Assembling nobodies into a ruthlessly efficient machine for winning baseball games, and watching them become stars, was one of the pleasures of running a poor baseball team.
I believe the exact same theory applies to basketball and any other professional sport. If the Wizards advance deep into the playoffs with JO, then I promise you the fans will come out. If the Wizards start losing 50-60 games a season again, then even Gilbert Arenas in all his quirkiness won’t be able to put butts in Verizon Center seats.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Jermaine O'Neal
The thought of swapping Gil for JO just made me throw up in my mouth. We might as well sign Larry Hughes and Ben Wallace while were at it, then we’ll have three of the league’s worst contracts(yea, yea it will be an expiring contract next year). Not to mention he has complained about wanting a trade to a contender within the last few years, yet he had no problem signing a max contract to be the Pacers FRANCHISE player. JO, maybe the Pacers suck b/c you haven’t lived up to your albatross of a contract. I can’t stand when players bitch about the team and demand a trade when they have not lived up to expectations on their end. Truthfully, I think its a toss up on who will produce more over the next 3-5 seasons, JO or Blatche, hell even Hibbert. No thank you. I’ll roll the dice with Gil regaining form and possibly reaching his vast potential and take Hibbert at 18.
If You're Wrong
We might as well sign Larry Hughes and Ben Wallace while were at it, then we’ll have three of the league’s worst contracts…
...
I’ll roll the dice with Gil regaining form and possibly reaching his vast potential…
If you’re wrong, and Gilbert doesn’t return to form and reach his vast potential, then you can put a maxed out Gilbert Arenas contract in that list right next to Wallace’s, Hughes’s, and JO’s. In my opinion, it would be the worst contract in the NBA, because we wouldn’t be able to get from under its yoke for another 6 seasons! I hope you’re right, though, because keeping Gil and drafting Hibbert is more likely to happen. Otherwise, we’ll be talking about what the free agent class looks like in 2014.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
I feel ya
I agree, I just feel much more comfortable taking a risk on Gil vs. JO but when it comes down to it, either is a gamble. Gil to me is more valuable, the main reasons being age, marketing power, cohesiveness, and talent. Gil is a unique talent who has only scratched the surface of his immense potential. If ever fully “gets it” he will be a top 10, or even 5 player in the L. Lets just cross our fingers…
Would Indy Really?
Two people familiar with the situation said the Pacers and Toronto Raptors have discussed trading O’Neal for point guard T.J. Ford and center Rasho Nesterovic, whose contract expires after next season, and possibly Toronto’s first-round pick (No. 17) in Thursday’s draft.The Raptors would have to include at least one other player, probably with an expiring contract, to make the deal work financially.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
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