Last finals discussion question
by Mike Prada on May 9, 2008 4:04 PM EDT
in Team Analysis
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PrintTechnically, my finals are done, but I'm still recovering, so here's one more question to ponder.
There was a lot of talk about our improved defense this year. Every time I ever tuned into Comcast (which admittedly wasn't much since I'm out of market), Phil Chenier (bless his soul) was talking about it, citing our opponents points per game average and our defensive field goal percentage.
Now, to be fair, we did get a little bit better defensively, but most of our improvement had to do with our slower pace this season. We played an average of over four fewer possessions per game this season than we did last season. This year, we surrendered about 1.12 points per possession, and based on our pace, we allowed teams to score an average of 98.8 points per game, down from 104.9 last season. Now, if we added four possessions to our average pace, we'd surrender another 4.48 points per game if we defended at the same rate. That would mean we'd surrender about 103.3 points per game, which is better than in 2006/07, but not by much.
Similarly, the field goal percentage is misleading because we are awful at defending the three. By looking at effective field goal percentage, which gives threes added weight, we went from 51.7 in 06/07 to 51.4 this season. Big difference, huh? Most of our improvement came from rebounding better and not fouling as much, if you look at the two links.
So here's the multi-part question. First, did this season do enough to convince you that our defense is heading in the right direction? Second, what do you think is the bigger problem? Do we not have the players to play good defense, or is it a matter of scheming? Which factor do you think is more responsible for our crappy defense?
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For the record, my first instinct answers
No.
55-45 in favor of scheme.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
My take
It went from excruciatingly bad to occasionally bearable, that’s progress right?
60-40 in favor of the scheming.
Bullets Forever: Where fancy numbers and YouTube come together.
This is a tough question,
especially when Chenier and Prada appear to disagree.
It definitely felt like the Wizards were a better defensive team this season, but this is probably due to their slower pace (and my almost exclusive viewing of Comcast coverage). A lot of this apparent improvement has been credited to Randy Ayers. (I can’t be the only one who is seriously miffed that Tom Thibodeau ditched the Wiz for the Celtics).
The Wiz were most certainly terribly terrible at defending the three this season, but really seemed to improve otherwise. This explains, but doesn’t justify, the discrepancy in opposing FG% vs eFG%. AD is better than Gil at defending the pick and roll, but we also lost some good defensive players off our bench this year in Ruffin and Thomas. Antawn seems to have stepped up his defensive game; he made a comment a while ago that with Gil out the team had to start playing defense. Although small, the improvement in scheme is the reason for the defensive improvement.
The scheming vs. players question really asks how you feel about EJ’s rotation. I generally defend EJ’s rotation (at least relative to other Wizard’s fans). His hand was really forced to go small this season with Etan’s injury along with Blatche’s inconsistency. Going small is always going to sacrifice defense for offense.
Basically, I don’t think we have the players with the defensive mindset or skills to make us a better defensive team.
So, I’m going Yes (I think our scheme is going in the right direction, but we have not made the player acquisitions to make us a defensive team) and 70-30 in favor of players.
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