No big changes needed

by Rook6980 on May 30, 2008 4:23 PM EDT

From the FanPosts. Our first "You Be the GM" proposal. Comment away. -PM

I don’t think the Wizards need to do anything dramatic in the off-season. No blockbuster trades. No wheeling dealing…

Priorities:
1. Sign Antawn Jamison to a 4-year contract. First year is $11.5 Million.
2. Sign Gilbert Arenas to a 6-year contract, with the first year at $15.5 Million
3. Unless a top-10 player drops to # 18, draft either Robin Lopez or Roy Hibbert. Sign to a Rookie minimum contract around $1.4 Million
4. Again, unless a legit 1st round prospect falls to # 47, draft Kyle Weaver and sign him to a minimum contract $427K
5. Unfortunately, this scenario means that Roger Mason has to walk…. I believe another team (San Antonio) will offer Roger the full Mid-Level Exception… too much for the Wizards to match.

Here’s the Wizards payroll for 2008-2009:
Andray Blatche            $2,739,669
Antawn Jamison       $11,500,000
Antonio Daniels           $6,200,000
Brendan Haywood      $5,500,000
Caron Butler                 $9,249,980
Darius Songaila          $4,234,000
Deshawn Stevenson $3,616,017
Dominic McGuire            $711,517
Etan Thomas               $6,864,200
Gilbert Arenas           $15,500,000
Nick Young                   $1,602,960
Oleksiy Pecherov         $1,446,720
1st Round Pick #18     $1,400,000
2nd Round Pick #47     $427,000

Total 2008-2009 Salaries: $70,992,063

PG = Gilbert Arenas , Antonio Daniels , Kyle Weaver
SG = DeShawn Stevenson, Nick Young
SF = Caron Butler, Andre Blatche, Dominic McGuire
PF = Antawn Jamison , Andre Blatche, Darius Songaila; Oleksiy Pecherov
C = Brendan Haywood, Etan Thomas, Robin Lopez

Reasons for draft decisions:
Anyone you draft at #18 or #57 will have holes in their game; so I looked for someone that could bring something on the defensive side of the ball. The Wizards don’t have any trouble scoring, so drafting a defensive minded center and PG would be the logical thing. Another thing that I looked for is a player that takes the game, practices, shoot arounds, on-court activities, and off-court activities seriously. The last thing the Wizards need are more “cut-ups” and “happy go lucky” guys… Drafting guys with a little more seriousness might help some of the other younger guys stay focused

I'm assuming that a top prospect is not going to fall to the Wizards at #18... Guys I really like (Westbrook, Joe Alexander, and Kevin Love) will already be gone.

My first choice: Robin Lopez is a legit 7-footer. High energy player. Good defensively and on the boards. Poor offensive player, but then again, the Wizards won’t really need their backup Center to score much. Plays focused the whole game. Hard worker. Extremely motivated.

My backup plan is Roy Hibbert – Another very hard worker. Played in the Princeton Offense. 4 years at a Major University in a Major conference, playing against top competition. Great passer from the high and low post. Good footwork. Few turnovers. High shooting percentage. Good one-on-one defender. Weakness: rebounding, perimeter defense – best case, another Ilgauskas, worst case, another Calvin Booth

Second round, with pick #47 – The Wizards need to start grooming a young PG to take over when Antonio Daniels can no longer be the backup. At this spot, I again looked for someone with a defensive mind set. Kyle Weaver (6′5″ 201) – SIZE & DEFENSE. Tough. Hard worker. Combo guard, but I see him as a big PG in the NBA. Long arms. One of the best defenders in college basketball (he helped shut down OJ Mayo, and Jerryd Bayless – lottery picks – and highly regarded freshman James Hardin earlier this year). Very good assist to turn over ratio. Very good handle. Good FT shooter. Weaknesses: Mid range Shooting (Dave Hoopla, anyone?), skinny.

A lot of mock drafts were projecting him higher in the 2nd round, but he foolishly declined an invitation to the NBA Pre-Draft Camp. THAT will hurt his rankings, and will almost certainly cause him to fall into the lower half of the 2nd round. It also got me thinking about his intelligence…. but even with that mistake, he’s my first choice for the Wizards pick at # 47 in the Second round.

Why no off-season trades? Blockbuster moves? Sign-and-Trades?

1. The Wizards don't have any players (besides Arenas, Butler and Jamison) that would bring much in return. Guys like Thomas and Daniels have contracts that are just too high - and youngsters like Blatche, Pecherov, McGuire don't yet have any value. The only possibility would be to package Young with Daniels or Thomas to try to get another veteran.... but that would mean giving up on Young; which I am not prepared to do. I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that since we don't own the "Bird rights" to Mason, we can't do a sign and trade...

2. The Wizards are too close to the Luxury Tax - therefore signing a veteran using the Mid-Level exception is out... Unless someone out there really thinks that a top-flight player would sign for $5M per year and that Abe Polin would approve it... Personally, I doubt there's any player out there at $5Million that will put the Wizards "over the hump", and make them a Championship contender right away.

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

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Comments

Repost of My Thoughts

To reiterate my comments from the main thread, I agree with your priorities and think your plan if very well thought out and well researched. I think Kyle Weaver is a great pick at 47 if he’s still around, since he appears to be exactly what the Wizards need right now. I also think the Wizards need to draft a defensive-minded center, especially if they can’t pick one up via free agency.

My only concern is that your plan is too conservative to help the Wizards get over the hump. If Ernie did everything exactly like you laid out, I’d have little reason to think we’d be any better than the 5th seed, again, next season and get bounced by Cleveland or whomever in the first round. Your strategy is safe, but I think Ernie should take more chances in order to compete for a championship.

I haven’t completely decided what I’d do yet. I’ll post my own FanPost when I do. I know it will involve at least one significant trade and/or letting at least one of the Big 3 go. Such sacrifices have to be made if the Wizards want to achieve greatness.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on May 30, 2008 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

very impressive post

by DarrellWalkerFan on May 30, 2008 4:09 PM EDT reply actions

Nice Post.

I have a question.

How much total are you talking about paying Arenas and Jamison over the extent of their contracts?

....as they are both Larry Bird exempt, so they are eligible to receive annual 10.5% raises. So, you might be able to lower the salary of AJ and Gilbert for year 1 and allow more cap flexibility.

And that’s why a lot of contracts are back-loaded these days (of course, there are exceptions such as Hinrich and Nocioni whose contracts are front-loaded).

I’m in agreement with cuppettcj in that adding a couple of rookies might not do the trick….but overall, I agree that drastic changes are not needed.

Hopefully, Ernie can sign both AJ and Gil to reasonable contracts which would allow the Wiz to use part or all of their mid-level exception to get some veteran assistance.

I outlined some Gil and AJ salary detail possibilities in this post.

by Kyle Weidie on May 30, 2008 4:47 PM EDT reply actions

That was my only question too

If Gilbert makes 15.5 million in his first year, then his salary will rise to the level where it is essentially a max contract in upcoming years. It seems to me that it wouldn’t be so unreasonable to expect him to sign for about 2-3 million dollars less for the first year, because he really has no leverage in this situation, having said he’d take less money to keep Jamison. Jamison’s contract seems more reasonable, but if you snip off 1 million on his first-year salary and 3 million on Gilbert’s, you have enough money to use a solid portion of the MLE.

Still, good plan. I like Weaver in particular … he strikes me as someone who would fit in well here.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on May 30, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Available Free Agents

I looked at the list of Unrestricted Free Agents….

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=2008FreeAgents

I didn’t see anyone on the list that:
A. Was worth spending $3 – $5 Million … or
B. That would help the Wizards in the areas they need help (Bench Scoring, Rebounding, Defense) ... or
C. That would WANT to come to the Wizards for $3 – $5 Million

It’s all fine and nice to say the Wizards should use their Mid-Level or Vet Minimum exceptions to sign a Free Agent or two…

The top level free agents, like Ron Artest, Jermaine O’Neal, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand, Grant Hill or Shawn Marion will either stay with their existing teams, or sign for big bucks somewhere else.

The mid-Level guys (Existing salary $2 – 4 Million) , like Rasho Nesterovic, Chris Mihm, Trevor Ariza, Matt Barnes, etc… will want a raise… so they’re gonna ask for the full Mid-Level exception…

The lower level guys will be available….. so if anyone thinks that Calvin Booth, Juan Dixon, Jarvis Hayes, Derek Anderson, or Michael Ruffin will put the Wizards over the top…. go for it….

Kwame Brown will be available too..

by Rook6980 on May 30, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, and

You’re right on Mason. I knew there was some reason we didn’t have his Bird Rights, but it all makes sense now. He signed a one-year deal in the offseason, so he’s ineligible for them.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on May 30, 2008 5:25 PM EDT reply actions

Exactly

what I would like to see happen. I want to see these guys back together and healthy.

by Lukbuster on May 31, 2008 11:39 AM EDT reply actions

Solid

And realistic. I’m willing to give it at least one more shot with our group. I don’t think we need much to get “over the hump” – we just need health. (And can we get some real defensive improvement damnit!?)

Getting buckets since 2003.

by Icantfeelmyface on May 31, 2008 11:41 AM EDT reply actions