Site-related items
The player evaluation series will continue with Nick Young later today, but before we get there, a couple quick site-related items:
The BF "You Be the GM" contest: Let's face it, June is the one month on the NBA calendar that is filled with speculation. That's why I don't really have a problem when people post things like "let's trade Andray Blatche, DeShawn Stevenson and Etan Thomas for Elton Brand," because June is all about that type of promise. So for all you Armchair GMs out there, here's a chance to propose a plan.
Here's the deal. You all have one month to write a comprehensive plan of what the Wizards should do this offseason. List all the specific moves you'd make down to the last player. If you're proposing a trade, list all the players involved. Say who you think the Wizards should draft if they keep their picks. Tell me who they should sign, and for exactly how much money. Then, give me the depth chart for next year's team at the end.
The ground rules are as follows:
- The salaries have to match in any trade: For all the data you need on players' salaries, go to Sham Sports' salary page (see the Wizards page for this year's salary data). The rule is that the combined salaries of the players coming in must be within 125 percent of the combined salary for the outgoing players. Real GM and ESPN have trade checkers that you can use, but if they don't work because some player has a special status (for example, a base year player), spell out why the salaries would match.
- Don't forget rookies: For the purposes of this exercise, the salary cap will be 58.5 million, and the luxury tax with be 71 million. Rookie contracts count, so be sure to leave space for them in your model. Last year, the 18th pick (Marco Belinelli), made about $1.4 million, while the 47th pick (our very own Dominic McGuire) made $427,000. If you trade the pick for another one, you need to look up the salary for the player picked in that spot in the 2007 draft.
- Operate by the rules: The Wizards are right near the salary cap, so they can only use the built-in exception when signing free agents. For a list of salary cap FAQs, go here, or for the abridged version, go here. For the purposes of this exercise, the mid-level exception is 5.5 million.
- Don't go over the luxury tax unless there's a very good reason: The 71 million dollar figure is the absolute line as far as salaries go. If your updated Wizards roster has a higher team salary than that, you need to get it under that number. That is, unless you provide a very good reason for going over. Saying something like "We're going for the championship" isn't sufficient. Explain why Abe Pollin would approve your plan if it means he needs to spend extra money out of his own pocket.
Jake, Truth and I will look over the proposals after draft day and collectively judge them, but there will be a BF reader approval vote as well that can trump our analysis. That means everyone should either post their proposal as a diary or send me an e-mail so I can post it. You can find my e-mail on the sidebar. The winner gets a prize of some kind (I'm accepting ideas for this, by the way).
Everyone has until draft day if they wish to participate. Good luck GMing!
Draft prospect profiles: We ran a couple last year, but I'm hoping we can do more this time. But we need your help. Let us know who you'd like us to profile, and if possible, let us know if you'd like to profile them yourselves. If so, post them as a diary and I'll promote them to the front page. There's one guy in particular that I really like and will profile soon, but otherwise, anyone's fair game. Just let us know who you all would prefer.
The BF Top 20: In case you're new, we decided to collectively profile who we considered to be the top 20 Bullets/Wizards of all time. The list is on the left sidebar, with links to the profiles we've done. We got all the way up to Number 8, leaving seven players left to profile this summer. Hotplate has already sent me the Jeff Malone profile, but otherwise, the top six are open. Let me know if you have interest in writing something about Walt Bellamy, Phil Chenier, Earl Monroe, Gilbert Arenas, Elvin Hayes or Wes Unseld.
Any questions?: With the new platform, I've noticed a lot of new voices here, which is outstanding. Even for those who have been here a while, SB Nation 2.0 offers a lot of new features that you may not have fully explored yet. If you have any questions about anything, or if you have any types of posts you'd like to see, please drop me a line. My e-mail's on the side, and I'd like to say I'm pretty good at answering it.
Happy June!
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Prada
Sent you an email, write me back when you get the chance.
Nothing dramatic
I don’t think the Wizards need to do anything dramatic in the off-season. No blockbuster trades. No wheeling dealing…
Priorities:
1. Sign Antawn Jamison to a 4-year contract. First year is $11.5 Million.
2. Sign Gilbert Arenas to a 6-year contract, with the first year at $15.5 Million
3. Unless a top-10 player drops to # 18, draft either Robin Lopez or Roy Hibbert. Sign to a Rookie minimum contract around $1.4 Million
4. Again, unless a legit 1st round prospect falls to # 47, draft Kyle Weaver and sign him to a minimum contract $427K
5. Unfortunately, this scenario means that Roger Mason has to walk…. I believe another team (San Antonio) will offer Roger the full Mid-Level Exception… too much for the Wizards to match.
Here’s the Wizards payroll for 2008-2009:
Andray Blatche $2,739,669
Antawn Jamison $11,500,000
Antonio Daniels $6,200,000
Brendan Haywood $5,500,000
Caron Butler $9,249,980
Darius Songaila $4,234,000
Deshawn Stevenson $3,616,017
Dominic McGuire $711,517
Etan Thomas $6,864,200
Gilbert Arenas $15,500,000
Nick Young $1,602,960
Oleksiy Pecherov $1,446,720
1st Round Pick #18 $1,400,000
2nd Round Pick #47 $427,000
Total $70,992,063
PG = Gilbert Arenas , Antonio Daniels , Kyle Weaver
SG = DeShawn Stevenson, Nick Young
SF = Caron Butler, Andre Blatche, Dominic McGuire
PF = Antawn Jamison , Andre Blatche, Darius Songaila; Oleksiy Pecherov
C = Brendan Haywood, Etan Thomas, Robin Lopez
Reasons for draft decisions:
Anyone you draft at #18 or #57 will have holes in their game; so I looked for someone that could bring something on the defensive side of the ball. The Wizards don’t have any trouble scoring, so drafting a defensive minded center and PG would be the logical thing. Another thing that I looked for is a player that takes the game, practices, shoot arounds, on-court activities, and off-court activities seriously. The last thing the Wizards need are more “cut-ups” and “happy go lucky” guys… Drafting guys with a little more seriousness might help some of the other younger guys stay focused.
Robin Lopez is a legit 7-footer. High energy player. Good defensively and on the boards. Poor offensive player, but then again, the Wizards won’t really need their backup Center to score much. Plays focused the whole game. Hard worker. Extremely motivated.
(My backup plan is Roy Hibbert – Another very hard worker. Played in the Princeton Offense. 4 years at a Major University in a Major conference, playing against top competition. Great passer from the high and low post. Good footwork. Few turnovers. High shooting percentage. Good one-on-one defender. Weakness: rebounding, perimeter defense – best case, another Ilgauskas, worst case, another Calvin Booth)
Second round, with pick #47 – The Wizards need to start grooming a young PG to take over when Antonio Daniels can no longer be the backup. At this spot, I again looked for someone with a defensive mind set. Kyle Weaver (6′5″ 201) – SIZE & DEFENSE. Tough. Hard worker. Combo guard, but I see him as a big PG in the NBA. Long arms. One of the best defenders in college basketball (he helped shut down OJ Mayo, and Jerryd Bayless – lottery picks – and highly regarded freshman James Hardin earlier this year). Very good assist to turn over ratio. Very good handle. Good FT shooter. Weaknesses: Mid range Shooting (Dave Hoopla, anyone?), skinny.
A lot of mock drafts were projecting him higher in the 2nd round, but he foolishly declined an invitation to the NBA Pre-Draft Camp. THAT will hurt his rankings, and will almost certainly cause him to fall into the lower half of the 2nd round. It also got me thinking about his intelligence…. but even with that mistake, he’s my first choice for the Wizards pick at # 47 in the Second round.
by Rook6980 on May 30, 2008 12:23 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I Like Your Analysis
You appear to have a good eye for detail. Your overall approach is a little too conservative for my liking, since you address the Wizards’ defensive deficiencies solely through the draft (not even one mid-level free agent?), but I agree with you on draft priorities and your breakdown of Kyle Weaver is excellent. He looks like the exact kind of player the Wizards could use, and a quality pick at 47.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Defense
Addressing defense through the draft is the only way to do it – and still stay under the $71 Million Luxury Tax.
Of course, it would be nice to throw say $12 Million at Ron Artest – but, 1: the Wizards are over the cap and therefore cannot spend more than the mid-level exception , and 2: if they spent money on a mid-level exception , they would exceed the Luxury tax. (against the rules of this exercise = “Don’t go over the luxury tax unless there’s a very good reason”) AND, I just don’t see any player out there that the Wizards could spend their Mid-Level exception on that would put them “over the top” and make them a Championship contender….
My assumptions are that Ernie will keep the core intact – meaning he will resign Jamison and Arenas. AND I agree with that approach. SO – given those constraints – that leaves very little in the way of trade material. No one is going to want Etan Thomas. No one will want Antonio Daniels (at his current salary). No one wants an inconsistent Andre Blatche… No other teams are drooling over Pecherov, McGuire, or Songaila. Young is probably tradeable – but why would you give up on him now…? and his salary wouldn’t fetch much in return anyway.
Also – signing Arenas and Jamison to reasonable contracts (Jamison at $5Mil less than this year, Arenas at less than Max contract) – still puts the Wizards right at the Luxury Tax level… Therefore, there’s NO room for Mason.
The ONLY way to improve defensively is to hope that another year under Ayres improves the existing players – and to draft young guys with a defensive mentality.
I Never Said It Was Going to Be Easy
I agree that with the Wizards bordering on the luxury tax, making a meaningful free agent acquisition will be difficult. However, since I believe that the Wizards must do this to make the next step, I think it should be tried. This can be accomplished by a number of ways.
First off, I would consider letting Gilbert walk. Gilbert is my favorite Wizard, I love his game, and I am one of the first ones to defend him on this board when people start saying that the Wizards are better without him. That disclosure submitted, I’m not sure if the Wizards should pay him a max salary after his injury history these past two seasons. If Ernie gives him a long deal for max money and Gil never is able to recapture his explosiveness that he had before the knee injury, then that signing will be studied in years to come by young GMs in training as an example of what not to do. It would be Isaiah Thomas bad. It would cripple the Wizards for the length of the deal, which would probably be at least 7 seasons.
Another reason to let Gilbert walk is Caron Butler. Caron is a really good player paired with Arenas, but he’s a great/franchise player when Gilbert doesn’t play. This isn’t to say the Wizards are better without Gilbert, that is a myth. But what is true is that the drop-off the Wizards would experience without Gilbert isn’t that big, because Caron has shown that he can step in to fill the offensive void left from Arenas quite well. Caron takes a back seat when Arenas plays, but Caron might be better utilized as the go-to guy on offense.
Letting Arenas walk and resigning Antawn to about $5 million less than this year would eliminate the luxury tax dilemna. The Wizards can then acquire a low post banger/post-up scoring threat to further bolster the Wizards’ weakest areas. I’m still not sure who the best free agent for the Wizards out there is, and I’m still not sure I would want Arenas to leave, but these are things to consider if the Wizards are going to make the next step and advance deep in the playoffs.
Another thing to consider is that max money for Arenas is only estimated at about $14.5 million because of his league tenure, and signing Jamison to about $1 million less per year than you would is not out of the question. Combine that with a package deal that could dump one of the Wizards’ mid-level salaries (like Songaila), and the Wizards might be able to afford a MLE player without breaking up the Big 3 and without entering luxury tax land.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Again
Love the effort, but put these in FanPosts, not in the comments section.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Oh
You should probably make this a diary or send me an e-mail. I didn’t expect y’all to write these in comments.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Mid-Level
Oh – cuppettcj – My scenario does not completely rule out signing a player using the Mid-Level exception… I still have a little over $7,000 left under the Luxury Tax…. ;-)

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