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Kevin Broom: Improved Wizards defense is a fallacy

Mr. Broom shows why we really weren't much better defensively this year. It's all stuff I've discussed too (though my calculations were off), but it only drives the point home further.

Link 3 months ago Gheorghe_tiny Pradamaster Comment 7 comments 0 recs |

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The guy makes a good point, but.....

Without diving into masses of statistics, the Wizards looked like a better defensive team simply from watching the games and how the team interacted with each other.

Was the improvement significant? I’d hesitate to use that strong of a term….but was the improvement meaningful? I’d say yes.

True that you can’t just look at decreased opponent points per game as a true measure….pace is a good stat to factor in.

I’ll obviously need to analyze more, but it seems like the decreased pace could actually derive from improved defense.

by Truth About It on May 15, 2008 5:32 PM EDT   0 recs

No comprende
I’ll obviously need to analyze more, but it seems like the decreased pace could actually derive from improved defense.

I don’t get that. How would you even analyze this?

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on May 15, 2008 5:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I have to disagree here

The pace is meaningless in and of itself. It is simply a numerical device that allows us to normalize statistics on a per possession basis rather than a per game basis. Per game stats are also meaningless by themselves, e.g., if a team gives up 100 points per game one year and 90 points per game the following year, it is still possible that on a per-possession basis the team’s defense did not change in the least (consider the lack of significance of the per-game decrease if the team’s pace decreased from 100 possessions per 48 minutes to 90 possessions per 48 minutes). Pace allows us to make per-game stats meaningful, not the other way around.

The per-possession statistic is relevant because it takes into account the number of stops a team makes against the number of opponent chances, as well as accounting for the fact that a higher pace gives more offensive opportunities. (A team with a better offensive efficiency than defensive efficiency should theoretically play at the fastest pace possible because in the long run it will always score more points than the opponent – playing at a slower pace gives an inferior offensive team a better chance of overcoming its deficiency because in the short run there is more of a chance of a statistical anomaly. But I digress.)

Getting buckets since 2003.

by Icantfeelmyface on May 15, 2008 11:15 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

Expended extra energy defensively has a way of slowing you down. But they took their fair share of lumps too. Those numbers aren’t a huge surprise.

by Jheiser3 on May 15, 2008 9:05 PM EDT   0 recs

Expending…

by Jheiser3 on May 15, 2008 9:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You can infer from this that...

While the defense overall did not improve (adjusted for pace of course), the interior defense must have “improved” as the three point defense got worse. From basketballreference you can see that the stats bear this out: opponent’s overall FGM decreased by 151 while the opponent’s 3PM increased by 85 for a net decrease in opponent 2 Point FGM of 236. The Free Throw Attempts (I use attempts because I’m assuming that our play does not affect the opponent’s FT%) also evidence that opponents were in the lane less – opponents shot 266 less FT in 07-08. Of course, this number may have also been affected by the poor three-point defense as opponents simply launched more 3s, as well as the slower pace (Wiz allowed 22.9 FTA per game this year versus 26.2 last year, but we allowed 24.1 per game if we had played at last years pace).

My takeaway – the numbers back up the intuition. We traded an improvement in interior defense for a dropoff on 3 point defense – the result is absolutely NO improvement from last year . Seriously, is there any way we could have improved our D while giving up the most 3s in NBA history?

Getting buckets since 2003.

by Icantfeelmyface on May 15, 2008 11:01 PM EDT   1 recs

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