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Open thread: Regular season game 47


The essentials:
Wizards (24-22) at Sixers (18-30)
7 p.m.
Wachovia Center
CSN

This year:
November 21: Wizards 116, Sixers 101.
November 30: Sixers 85, Wizards 84.

Notable Sixers numbers this season
T20th in expected winning percentage (.393).
26th in pace factor (89 possessions per game).
23rd in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (104.5)
16th in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (107.8).

Key links (drop any others in the comments)
Passion and Pride.
Sixers Shots.
Sixers Journal.
Sixers4Guidos.
Les Bullez: Will the real Haywood please stand up?.
Post: Looking for offensive balance.
Sixers Shots: Invert the offense.
Passion and Pride blog preview.

Starting lineups:
Sixers
PG: Andre Miller
SG: Willie Greene
SF: Andre Iguodala
PF: Thaddeus Young
C: Samuel Dalembert

Wizards
PG: Antonio Daniels
SG: DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Caron Butler
PF: Antawn Jamison
C: Brendan Haywood

Tonight's lines:
Sixers at Wizards: Wizards by 1.5.
Over/Under on Big 2 scoring: 43 points.

Happy Super Tuesday!

We're struggling Part I (Offense): Since the huge win over Dallas, we're only 2-5, with three of those losses happening in blowout fashion.  Sunday was more of the same, as our offense couldn't get into gear and Kobe shredded DeShawn Stevenson defensively.  

Obviously, when you play that badly, you're struggling on both ends of the court.  Offensively, we've only topped 100 twice during this stretch, and both of those games were in overtime.  We had an 87-point game against Utah (a below-average defensive team), an 83-point night against Toronto (a good, but not great defense) and just 79 through most of the fourth quarter against Milwaukee (a horrible defensive team).  Caron Butler (when healthy) and Antawn Jamison are doing their part, but nobody else is.  DeShawn is slumping from outside, AD is a non-factor, Haywood has been inconsistent once again, and the bench has been beyond awful.

The key to improving the offense is simple, as Ivan mentioned in the link above.

Indeed, one of the biggest indicators of success this season has been balanced scoring. The Wizards are 6-1 when all five starters score in double figures and are 8-1 when they shoot better than 50 percent as a team.

This is a bit of a catch-22, because if the supporting players aren't doing their part, Caron and Antawn will try to do more and sabotage things when they should be moving the ball, but how can you blame them?  Everyone else has to do their part, particularly AD, as DarrellWalkerFan mentioned the other day.

i think he's worn down. to some degree, as he goes, the wiz go, and he's been struggling of late.

Yet he's played over 40 minutes during this stretch because Roger Mason has been awful recently.  Again, it's a catch-22.  AD needs to rest, but if we lose so much with him on the bench, what should Eddie Jordan do?

That was a bit of a rant.  Let's go to the defense: 122 to Toronto.  103 to the Lakers in a slow game.  121 to the Cavs.  Obviously, that's a problem with our defense, and indeed, we've seen our defensive efficiency slide down to 20th in the past couple weeks.  

I'm not too, too concerned with the Lakers game, because Kobe was hot and wasn't missing anything no matter how tough DeShawn played him.  Otherwise, though, we have problems, and I think it starts with the big guy, Brendan Haywood.  

Les Bullez talked about him today, though I think they picked the wrong things to focus on.  Haywood's never been a super rebounder.  As we've been over many times, he's good at clearing out space for Jamison to grab rebounds.  Additionally, Kingly-1 criticized him for his performance against the Lakers, when he only played a criminally low 17 minutes.  

But strangely enough, Haywood's defensive impact hasn't quite been there recently, and even this season.  In the past few years, he affected the team's defensive efficiency far more dramatically than he has this season.  Opposing centers like Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Mehmet Okur lit him up recently, which really is bad because individual defense has been Haywood's calling card.  He's having his best season ever offensively, but he's slipping on the other end, and for a team that relies on him so heavily there, that's a problem.

Also, we've seen a renewal of smallball recently.  That has to stop.

Some words on Philly: They're humming around at 18-30, and were the victims of an insane Josh Smith 5 by 5 game last night.  They're pretty much the same team we saw earlier in the year, except for one key switch.  They've inserted rookie Thaddeus Young into the starting lineup, and are playing Jason Smith more, which gives them more offense at the expense of a bit of rebounding.  It's something they should have done a long time ago, though some say it's not far enough.

Keys to the game: Offensive balance.  I'm tired of seeing guys like AD, Stevenson, and Songaila moving robotically through the Princeton offense.  They need to start getting more aggressive, because as Ivan said, we win when we get everyone involved.

This is an open game thread, so long for us to have a skinny 7'7'' shot blocking machine here.

GO WIZARDS!

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Display:

Picks
Wizards
Over
Obama

Black Presidents 08!

by Aldo on Feb 5, 2008 6:22 PM EST reply actions  

can't wait to get swept like in game 1 !!
LOL

I am in full tanking mode and would be more than glad to leave you guys the W !!!

later

Ricky

by Ricky Sixers4guidos on Feb 5, 2008 6:35 PM EST reply actions  

Picks
Wizards
Over
Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by Jake Whitacre on Feb 5, 2008 6:36 PM EST reply actions  

i'll pick the wiz
hopefully they'll bounce back and play well tonight. the upcoming schedule is brutal. going 3-3 over the next six games would probably be an achievement.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Feb 5, 2008 6:46 PM EST reply actions  

A few weeks ago you wouldnt have said that
Most of htose games are at home, we were on a 24-13 stretch since the 0-5 start, just coming off a big time beatdown of the at-the-time best in the west Mavericks for the 2nd time and had just beat the Celtics in a back-to-back after a great win over the Hawks.....

We play like we were and we could go 6-0 in this upcoming stretch, we're good enough.

If we play like we've been playing in the last 7 games than we could go 0-6 in this upcoming stretch, we've been bad enough.

Seems to be no in between with this team, ask Boston or Dallas..... or just ask Philly and Milwaukee..... :(

by billy332 on Feb 5, 2008 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Wiz, over
I think the big two are gonna have a good night - Thaddeus Young will have issues guarding Jamison, if Jamison continues to go inside. Hopefully Caron's in better shape right now, too.
The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.

by mamemimo on Feb 5, 2008 6:52 PM EST reply actions  

Wiz, over
I've been known to be right.

by Icantfeelmyface on Feb 5, 2008 7:07 PM EST reply actions  

picks
wiz....the Sixers really aren't a very good basketball team...

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Feb 5, 2008 7:25 PM EST reply actions  

Guh
Andre Miller has a double-double and the Sixers are shooting over 60%.

Wherefore art thou Randy Ayers?

Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by Jake Whitacre on Feb 5, 2008 8:37 PM EST reply actions  

We're up 10
But I don't get how Haywood can play as many minutes as Darius Songaila, especially tonight, when he's active and playing well offensively.

Come on Eddie.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Feb 5, 2008 8:56 PM EST reply actions  

Goddammit
Butler's hurt, and we're tied.

Goddammit, this is awful.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Feb 5, 2008 9:12 PM EST reply actions  

What the hell is this
I'm punching my door right now.  
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Feb 5, 2008 9:18 PM EST reply actions  

Commence angry comments
They're all merited.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Feb 5, 2008 9:26 PM EST reply actions  

Wow, what a collapse
From bad team (0-5), to very good team (24-13), to bad team again (1-6).

What the heck, man.......... what is going on?

We lost the 4th quarter 28-13, went in with a 10 point lead against one of the worst teams in the nba nd choked it away in the 4th quarter......

What the hell happened to Caron, our finisher? Why so many damn 3 pointers in the 4th? Why so little of Haywood (our inside option) and Jamison(our inside option)? Haywood has been terrible, even more so on defense and just is not playing NEARLY enough, and Jamison has drifted to the 3point line for 2 weeks....

WHATS GOING ON?? WAKE UP!!! YOURE SO SO SO SO MUCH BETTER THAN THIS!

by billy332 on Feb 5, 2008 9:46 PM EST reply actions  

When you think about it
This is eerily similar to last year.  The Wiz got off to that 4-9 start, tore through the league in December and January and then they started to go to crap right before the All-Star game.  I don't know if there's anything specifically that can be pointed to that each situation shares, but it's kind of bizarre.
Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by Jake Whitacre on Feb 5, 2008 10:23 PM EST up reply actions  

injuries
the young talent hasnt developed ehough yet to give the wiz a strong bench. i dont want gil to come back too early, but i dont want him to come back too late either

by facekdr on Feb 6, 2008 7:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Injuries and Schedule
I plan on posting a diary about the Wizards schedule this year because I think it explains a lot.  All of this talk about how much better the Wizards are without Arenas is just plain garbage.  The fact of the matter is, the Wizards have had a very easy schedule after their first five games, which has made this team look a lot better than they actually were.  But now it's time to pay the piper.  The second half of this season is going to be brutal for the Wizards, even if they were at full strength.

That brings me to my next point.  The Wizards were the best team in the Eastern Conference at the end of January of last season, but then injuries decimated this team.  Everybody seems to forget that the Wizards didn't just go to crap for no good reason, they got hurt.  During the Wizards second win in a row over Detroit on January 30th of last season, Jamison went down with a knee injury that would cause him to miss an entire month of basketball.  At that point, the Wizards were 27-17, the apex of their season.  The Wizards started their decline at that point.

When Jamison finally came back, the Wizards had fallen to 31-25, and faced a tough month of March in which they played 8 out of 15 games on the road.  The Wizards were a horrible road team last season, so they predictably lost 8 of 15 games.

Then came the memorable month of April.  The very first game, Caron breaks his hand trying to block a shot in Milwaukee.  The very next game, Gilbert blows out his knee in Charlotte, and the rest, as they say, was history.

And so is the story for the Wizards this season.  When the schedule was easy (more on this later) and Caron was healthy, the Wizards looked real good.  But now Caron is either hurt or playing hurt, the schedule is getting tougher, and the Wizards are showing their true colors.

The facts are not pretty, folks.  With a healthy Big 3, this team is dangerous and can contend.  But without Arenas and with Caron nursing his hip injury, expect things to get a lot uglier.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Feb 6, 2008 9:02 AM EST reply actions  

A Theory
As noted, Haywood's defensive effectiveness (looking at the on/off numbers) is down this season. They're still a couple points better per 100 possessions when he's on the floor, but not as much better as they have been in previous years.

My theory is that this may be a scheme effect, not actually a diminishing of Haywood's defensive abilities/performance. In previous years, the team's defensive scheme was not sound. They had as many defensive sets as most teams have offensive, and many of them were built on doing stuff that doesn't matter a whole lot. Stuff like playing for steals and trying to force turnovers, when what matters is forcing misses.

In previous years, the Wiz gave up rampant dribble penetration. The ONLY guy on the roster who could do anything to protect the paint and force misses was Haywood. Individual tracking showed him to be the team's most active and effective defender. In tracking done earlier this season, the same things showed up. He was still busier and more effective than his teammates, but his teammates were doing a better job whether he was in or out.

Whereas the defense completely fell apart in previous years when Haywood sat -- because they no longer had anyone who could protect the rim or rotate onto shooters and force a miss -- now the team is more likely to keep penetration out of the middle, which means even less accomplished defenders can play an effective helping role.

Even as I type all this, I'm not entirely sure about it. Maybe Haywood just isn't as effective anymore. In tracking earlier in the season, he looked to be back at his 04-05 level, which sorta suggests there might be something in the "it's the scheme" theory. But I haven't been tracking recently.

Thoughts?

by TheSecretWeapon on Feb 6, 2008 9:26 AM EST reply actions  

UGLY
what were some of those shots the Wizards were taking in the 4th quarter? Most of them were just plain garbage. I am disgusted and this team is falling apart. Hey, National Basketball Pundit, Please say that the Wizards need Gilbert Arenas back, pronto!
What? They don't have TV in the D-League? Don't watch me, watch TV.

by Mac G on Feb 6, 2008 1:47 PM EST reply actions  

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