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Six reasons why Gilbert Arenas shouldn't be shut down (or six reasons why I disagree with Tom Ziller)

In light of the recent tidbid that the Wizards and Gilbert Arenas are considering shutting him down for the rest of the season, friend of the blog Tom Ziller cyber-penned this post on NBA Fanhouse suggesting that there's no point in bringing Agent Zero back this season with the Wizards stuck at 4-23.  The money line is this:

No offense to D.C., but what exactly would be the point of bringing Arenas back now? Did Dwyane Wade help the Heat much last season? Should David Robinson have made a late push to get back on the court in 1996-97? When you are this bad, there is little to be gained by returning a star with a bad knee.

Jake already expressed a couple counterpoints to this view over at Gilbertology, but here are six reasons why I disagree with Ziller's line of thinking.

1.  We're talking about a chronic injury

The biggest difference between the Arenas situation and the ones Ziller described is that Arenas is returning from three knee surgeries, not one.  When David Robinson got hurt, it was the first time in his career that it happened, and there wasn't all that much risk that he wouldn't come back and still be an effective player.  Dwayne Wade's problems last year were somewhat similar to Arenas', but not in the same degree.  Wade hurt his shoulder in 2006/07, came back early for the playoffs, then never really healed all that well going into 2007/08.  Arenas hurt his knee in 2006/07, never really healed all that well going into 2007/08, missed time, came back early for the playoffs and aggravated his injury enough to repeat the same process.  Even with Amare Stoudamire, a guy lots of people are comparing to Arenas, there was only one hitch in his recovery.

What's the point?  More than anyone, Arenas needs to prove to everyone that he's healthy enough to play.  It's been nearly two years since that last happened, and it's completely understandable to worry about whether he's ever going to be the same player.  If you keep him out all season, you're now that much further removed from his last healthy foray.  Ernie Grunfeld is going to enter an incredibly important offseason without having any idea whatsoever how much he can count on his franchise player.  If he comes back, at least there's a larger body of evidence of his post-return play.

2.  The validation of Arenas' health matters more than his actual health 

Allow me to explain.  Yes, it is essential that Arenas is fully healthy before making his return.  The organization speaks often of Arenas signing a six-year contract, not a six-month contract, and they're right. 

However, shutting him down this year has lasting effects into the offseason, and I'm not just talking about fan opinion.  It's looking more and more like Ernie is going to have to find a new coach for this bunch.  Knowing the way coaching tenures are going recently, however, what coach is going to sign on to a team when he has no idea how much Arenas can give him?  There's always the worry that Arenas will stay out and management will make said coach a scapegoat, just like Eddie Jordan was perceived to be around the league.

In essence, a healthy Gilbert Arenas makes the Wizards job that much more enticing to a big-name coach.  If you shut Arenas down, then you have no idea how Arenas is going to play moving forward.  Ergo, there's reason for a coach to wonder if he'll get anything from Arenas when he takes the job, making the job less enticing.

3.  Arenas provides a building block

No, this team isn't making the playoffs.  However, there are a ton of young guys on this team coming into their own, and it'd be nice if they had some time to play and grow around Arenas rather than in place of him.  If Arenas is to return fully healthy, he will be our franchise guy and everyone else will need to play off him.  That includes Andray Blatche, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, Dominic McGuire and the rest.  They have all seen their role jerked around, partly because of coaching, but mostly because of circumstance with all these guys injured.  The more time we can get for them to grow around Arenas rather than without him, the better they will develop into the roles they should fill. 

You have to worry that the young guys already have picked up bad habits that make them poor compliments to Gil.  We've seen how Andray Blatche has become more of a scorer and less of a rebounder and screener this year.  If he is to play with GIl, that'll have to change a bit.  We've also seen how Nick Young has continued to monopolize the ball (albeit more efficiently) with Gil out.  We've also seen how JaVale McGee has stopped rolling to the basket as effectively as he did earlier in the year, which needs to change if he plays with Gil.  The more you hold Gil out, the more you are inhibiting the development of those skills.  The best way these guys can learn those role-playing/maturity-type skills is to practice them with the franchise player out on the court.  You take away Gil, you take away that chance.

4.  Arenas needs to experience the transition

A month into Ed Tapscott's tenure, and I can see that we're between offensive and defensive systems.  It's clear Ed's trying to change the way we play, but he knows he needs to do so gradually because we've been playing this way since 2003.  We still run a lot of Princeton-type sets, but many of the pet plays have been eliminated in favor of more pro-style screen and rolls.  You know the play where the point guard passes off to the wing, takes a backscreen from a center and gets a return pass from the wing for an open three?  Gil scored a ton of points just on that one play.  I haven't seen that play run at all recently. 

Anyway, the point is that Arenas, like the rest of the players, needs to learn how to play outside of the Princeton.  I'd rather his transition period happen now, when there's nothing really on the line, than next year, when it may inhibit any real push toward the playoffs and beyond.

5.  Arenas' psyche will be damaged

Jake touched on this in his post, and I think it's a really good point.  Gilbert has gotten to this point by silencing the doubters with his bravado and confidence, but that has to be melting away the more he stays off the court.  You keep him out, you run the risk of shattering that confidence forever.

6.  What more could he do to his knee?

Seriously.  If he gets hurt again, it's a sunk cost anyway.  We just repeat this same process again.  The earlier we can see whether it's a sunk cost, the better equipped we'll be to deal with it.

All of this is under the premise that he's actually going to be healthy enough to play this year.  If that's not true, then he should sit.  But if it's not true, it should really not be true.  Keeping Arenas out as a precaution would not be the right idea.

1 recs  |  Comment 7 comments |

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7. I drafted him in a fantasy basketball league for his second half production

http://www.waitingfornextyear.com

by scottsargent on Dec 27, 2008 8:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good points

I ignored the psychological impacts for sure. You’re right that this is different from Wade in that there wasn’t really a question last season that once healthy Wade would again dominant. (I guess there was some debate about that, but not nearly the level Gil has seen.)

One psychological negative to Gil’s in-the-air status is that the team is always waiting on him. I’m thinking of Jamison and Butler. They really miss having Gil, surely. And so long as he’s a possibility to come back in a month, they’ll be waiting on him. Often, I think it’s better to know for sure either way that you’ll have a guy or not. But who knows.

I should note that I have been holding Gil on two of my three fantasy teams, so if anything arguing he should sit is opposite to my personal interests.

by Ziller on Dec 27, 2008 10:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Next year

And, How about the whole “fast start” idea?

Wouldn’t it be prudent to allow Arenas to get his game back together the final 30-40 games this year? Wouldn’t it be better to get Arenas integrated into the Offense THIS year. Wouldn’t it be better to get any kinks out THIS year? Wouldn’t it be easier for his teammates to get familiar with his game THIS year…..

As opposed to starting out next year, fumbling about, trying to get some “chemistry” and learning to play together?

I, for one, would like to see the Wizards finally get off to a GOOD start to a season – and next year would start better if Arenas comes back THIS year.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Dec 27, 2008 11:34 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Another thing to note

Is that bringing back Arenas isn’t going to change our draft status that much. Let’s say Gil helps the team win an extra 5 games. That’ll have us as maybe the fourth worst team in the league instead of the second. That’s not a giant shift in our lottery probabilities.

If the lottery were more slanted toward the worst teams, there would be a bit more of an argument for shelving Gil for the year. But as-is, seeing what he’s capable is a necessity.

PLUS, if (God forbid) Arenas doesn’t look anything like the player he once was, that heavily impacts the team’s caluculus in the draft. Ricky Rubio looks a lot more attractive if we’ve got five years of Grant Hill than if we’ve got the old Arenas manning the point for 38-40 minutes/game for the next five seasons.

by sierradave on Dec 27, 2008 3:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Poor draft

After Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio, it’s slim pickings anyway…. Those are the only two with talent enough to potentially be franchise players (All-Star caliber)… Not saying that either will become an All-Star, but that they have the talent. Plus, Ricky Rubio has a large buy-out clause in his Spanish contract (anyone remember the JCN fiasco?)

The rest either have huge holes in their games (Thabeet is Offensively challenged, Harden is small for a SG, etc…) OR they are projects that are years away from contributing (B.J. Mullens)

So, resting Arenas to get more ping pong balls makes no sense; especially in light of the fact that the upcoming draft is widely acknowledged to be one of the poorest in recent memory. What? Sit Arenas so that the Wizards have the ability to pick in the Lottery and get a player that in any other recent draft would have been a late 1st Round or early 2nd Round pick? Makes no sense.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Dec 27, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice Piece

I know it’s in there somewhere, and I agree with pretty much all of your points, but my main reason in thinking that Gil should return to the court this season (if cleared by the doctors of course) is that he needs a chance to get his swagger back…..and I’d rather it happen this season when, perhaps, the team can play more loose (while having fun) in games of little consequence.

I guess all this is along the lines of your #5, but the “confidence forever damaged” seems a little dramatic to me.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Dec 27, 2008 6:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yep to all of it...

Assuming Gil is physically ready to play:

His teammates need to see Gil on the court this season.

Wizard fans need to see Gil on the court this season.

The NBA nees to see Gil on the court this season.

and most of all, Gil needs to see Gil on the court this season.

by khrabb on Dec 28, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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