There are slumps, and then there's DeShawn Stevenson
by Mike Prada on Dec 12, 2008 7:26 PM EST
in Player Analysis
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PrintToo depressed about the Wizards and too busy with finals to talk much about last night. You can't implicate one guy, but Mike James definitely killed us. We had the ball looking to cut the lead into single digits, but then he came in and missed like 100 million terrible shots in a row (slight exaggeration). Next thing we know, we're down 24 again. I hope he never plays again, and I know he will.
Anyway, this makes me even more depressed (emphasis mine).
After the game, Coach Ed Tapscott likened [DeShawn] Stevenson's shooting woes to a pitcher suddenly having location problems, a hitter going into a slump or a wide receiver suddenly dropping passes and said he plans on sticking with Stevenson, who is his best wing defender.
At this point, DeShawn Stevenson's struggles go beyond being in a slump. We have now played 20 games, which is about a quarter of the season. Starting pitches traditionally start around 32 games, so we're talking about the equivalent of eight starts. Hitters play 162 games if they stay healthy, so that's a 41-game sample. Wide receivers play 16 games, so we're talking about a four-game sample. Currently, DeShawn Stevenson is shooting 30.9 percent from the field and 28 percent from three. His effecitve field goal percentage is 38.8. His true shooting percentage is 41.7. That is the lowest true shooting percentage of anyone in the league that does not play on the Oklahoma City Thunder. If you take away that one game against New Jersey, DeShawn has attempted 155 shots, hitting only 41. This goes beyond a slump, I'm sorry.
Would you stick with a starting pitcher for more than eight games if he had the second-worst ERA in all of baseball? Would you stick with a receiver who wasn't very amazing to begin with and had been dropping passes left and right for four games? I mean, if you did, you'd be a losing team. Like the Wizards are right now.
And DeShawn is no longer the Wizards' best wing defender. (Warning: this is very numbers-based, as I can't really string together any video clips until after finals). Was he even before? I don't know, but I can tell you that he was at least very competent. LeBron may have gone off on him a bit, but DeShawn did a pretty decent job guarding most of the best wings last year. This year? Counterpart data is very misleading, but it's still worth mentioning that shooting guards are averaging a 19.7 PER against DeShawn this year. The Wizards are also 15.8 points worse with Stevenson in the game on defense this year (same link). Stevenson's adjusted plus/minus, which tries to take into account several different on/off stats into one number, is -25.92.
But sure, trot him out there some more while Nick Young remains on the bench even as every single one of Young's numbers improves dramatically. The irony here is that Stevenson is posting the lowest turnover rate and highest assist rate of his career, indicating he may actually do as a stopgap backup point guard. This is lovely. Put him in that role. Start Nick Young. If all Stevenson can do is dribble and pass, then play him at a positon where he can just dribble and pass. It's not like Mike James is a better option.
I understand why Ed Tapscott feels the need to stick with his veterans (re: Songaila, Juan and Etan, to a certain extent) even if I have trouble agreeing, but I don't understand why Ed Tapscott feels the need to stick with DeShawn Stevenson. It's all getting to Stevenson's head too and making him play worse. To not bench DeShawn at this point is bananas.
Free Nick Young!
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If Stevenson was truly a lockdown defender
the Wizards might be able to cope with his horrible offense. But he’s not, and there’s no way he should be playing huge minutes. It’s just ridiculous.
I'm pissed -
there is no reason for Stevenson to be starting. How badly does someone have to play to knock some sense into Tapscott? It’s utterly ridiculous and I’m disgusted. I feel like I’m wasting my time watching this team especially after the embarrassing so called basketball they played last night.
Stevenson Should Be Benched
Until either Gilbert comes back or he starts producing in the limited minutes he should be receiving off of the bench. He has admitted that he is not good at creating his own shot, and yet he insists on doing so.
He should come off the bench for 10-15 minutes per game until he proves that he deserves more. In those 10-15 minutes, he should focus on defense, passing, not turning the ball over, and shooting only when he is wide-open and in his spot! Obviously, this doesn’t include driving layups. I’m specifically talking about his tendency to take contested jumpers. If he can’t get a path to the basket, and if he is covered, he needs to pass the ball. It’s that simple.
When Gil comes back, hopefully all will be well with him. If it’s not, then he needs to go.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
but if you don't play ds
you have to play young, and i don’t think that’s a big winner either. young can shoot, and he does occasionally get a rebound, but other than that he’s a zero. can’t drive, can’t pass, has terrible judgment. he’s just not a basketball player. he’s might be a little slow. i see your stats, but we all know what they say about stats. i trust my eyes. the wiz should use young like they did roger mason.
if i were ET, i think i would hope for the best with ds too.
You can trust your biases
I’ll trust that Nick Young is a lot better than DeShawn Stevenson right now.
The point isn’t that Young is a finished product or anything. It’s that he’s better than DeShawn Stevenson. It’s Stevenson’s suckitude that necessitates a change more than Young’s emergence (though Young has significantly improved).
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
And jeez
i see your stats, but we all know what they say about stats. i trust my eyes.
Your eyes contradict practically everything. This year, Young has become a better passer, ball-handler and “judger,” according to the numbers. He’s clearly already a basketball player, much moreso than the 2008/09 version of DeShawn Stevenson. Please explain the contradiction beyond just “I trust my eyes.”
I’m not suggesting you’re wrong (well, yeah I am), but you gotta do better than that dude to back up what you said.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Someone has to do it
I’m going to defend DS (but only a little bit). Why? This isn’t a slump, rather, this is what we should expect from him.
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that DS has been atrocious on offense this year. Why? Because the man has NEVER been able to effectively drive or shoot off the dribble. He’s a servicable wing defender who can hit the open three-ball, and that’s it. Two years ago he had his best season while playing off of Arenas, whose penetration resulted in a huge number of open threes — DS shot 40.4% from downtown. Last year with AD and Mason playing well at the point he still shot 38%, and somehow (thanks Hopla) improved enough on free throws (79.7) to justify taking it to the rack as well as keeping his TS% pretty constant (down to .529 from .542 in 2006/7) despite a huge drop in his 2-point FG%. His midrange game and his shooting off the dribble were both as bad, if not worse, than ever.
So what happens this year? At PG we have played a veteran who is hurt and losing a step, a journeyman undersized 2 guard playing out of position, and another undersized guy who was barely hanging on in this league. Is it any surprise that DS couldn’t pick up the slack? No, it’s actually pretty damn predictable that he would struggle because he’s been forced to initiate the offense more than in previous years (hence the higher number of assists).
Now, do I want DS to start? Of course not. I’ve been advocating for NY to start for about a month now, precisely because of DS’s offensive problems. What is disappointing to me is that while you would think that Ernie drafted NY because he realized DS’s shortcomings, the Wizards and the coaches (Tap and EJ) seem to think that he is starting material, and this this is simply a “slump.” This is hardly a slump, it’s just what we should expect to happen when he isn’t playing with a starting-quality PG.
So quit hating on the man, because his game hasn’t changed a bit. Instead, hate on the Wiz leadership for starting him and asking him to contribute 30 minutes a game at the position that traditionally is reserved for the team’s best scorer.
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on Dec 13, 2008 12:50 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
That doesn't explain why he suddenly sucks on defense
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Yeah, that's a totally different story
I think he’s always been overrated as a defender. He’s a little above average, and this year has barely been that. Perhaps the offensive struggles have carried over to his effort on defense (and if people want to criticize that portion of his game then go ahead).
Lately I think he’s been playing better by giving much more effort on defense (much like AJ) – though I don’t have any way to quantify that.
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on Dec 13, 2008 1:14 AM EST up reply actions
Things fall apart...
Stevenson is lost out there right now and it’s a shame because he is a funny and interesting guy otherwise … He is not going to shoot his way out of this either because his offensive game has always been flawed… It is not like he has suddenly developed the basketball equivalent of a hitch in his swing… He needs open looks and that means he needs to be paired in the backcourt with a creator like Gilbert.
His defense has slipped because his confidence is gone and that adds up to a trip to the bench and maybe the sports shrink too.
I Think That is Exactly It
Perhaps the offensive struggles have carried over to his effort on defense
I think that is right on the money. What I think is happening is that DeShawn’s offensive struggles have sucked his confidence and when he misses a shot he tries too hard to make up for it by taking gambles on defense instead of simply being patient and staying in front of his man. What made him a good defender in the past has been his self-control. He didn’t bite on pump fakes. He didn’t try to go for the steal. He simply bothered his man, stayed in front of him, and made sure to get a hand in his face while shooting. That’s it, nothing fancy.
But now you can literally see the frustration on DeShawn’s face after a missed shot. It really has become psychological with him, IMO. He is now trying too hard defensively and taking gambles, allowing himself to both lose concentration and get burned.
There was one game that I can point to and say that DeShawn played good defense on a really good offensive player – the Lakers game against Kobe Bryant. DeShawn covered Kobe really well, holding him to 5-17 shooting from the field. Why did he do such a good job? Easy, he didn’t try to shut Kobe down. He didn’t try and steal the ball from Kobe or block Kobe’s shot. His attitude was simply “let me just try to make it as difficult as I can on Kobe and if he makes it, he makes it.” If he can have that attitude against every defender he plays, I think his defense would improve immensely.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Deshawn Starting is GENIUS
DeShawn is sorry this year and starting him is the greatest thing you can do. The wizards have a great bench team because Nick Young is the star on it. You make him a starter and the wizards second string team will suck. DeShawn definately can’t handle the load that Nick Young has to because Nick Young is the Caron Butler of the second string wizards; their star player. Juan Dixon starts now so who’s going to help Nick and the second string? Not DeShawn. DeShawn starts because Ed Tapscott is trying to balance the team. If you start players like Nick Young and Andray Blatche instead of Stevenson and McGee, the game falls apart since the not as good second string with Deshawn won’t be able to compete. If you start the true best 5 players on the wizards,(Blatche, Jamison, Butler, Young, Dixon) as soon as they get tired the game is over since the second string, (Etan, JaVale “the Monster” McGee, McGuire, DeShawn, Mike James) will suck so much. That second string of (Etan, JaVale “the Monster” McGee, McGuire, DeShawn, Mike James) has no offensive threats except for JaVale really. That’s why starting Deshawn is the best idea.
Making the first unit good is more important that solidifying the second unit
Because the first unit plays more.
And besides, you can intersperse your first-unit guys on the second unit.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Ya know
A friend and I were recently talking about how legendarily bad Stevenson was doing so far this season, so I really appreciate this post to help back me up with some stats. Free Nick Young, indeed.
This game against Philly has got to be DeShawn's
… last shot at keeping his games started streak alive. I genuinely like his personality and when he has had the right running mate at guard he has been a fine complementary player. But enough is enough and if we cannot take out the Sixers (whose expectations were perhaps even more unrealtitically high than the Wizards’) with the help of a decent effort from DS, then IMO he has to sit for a while.
The key tonight is to control E Brand, and this may dictate a big role for an experienced 4 like Songaila, who knows how to hold his ground and does not give up any height to the Dookie (these two go way back in the ACC when Songaila played some fine ball for Wake Forest). Tapscott has a chance to show some good coaching skills tonight.
This one is up for grabs and if we take it, who knows, it might be a turning point.
Answer is simple...
Tapscott is trying to tank the season on purpose
by ucantstopbernard on Dec 13, 2008 5:32 PM EST reply actions
That would be a stupid statement - except that the facts support it.
1. Tapscott refuses to play the best players – you know, the ones that are actually effective or could be effective with more minutes (Young, McGee, McGuire, Blatche,)
2. Tapscott continues to play ineffective players (Stevenson, Mike James, Etan Thomas)
3. Tapscott refuses to play Butler “out of position” at the 2 where he has shown flashes of being effective and productive, but can’t seem to help but play Songaila out of position at the 5, where he’s been disastrous.
4. Yank the best Center out of the game after 4 minutes of play – and leave him on the bench – even though the Wizards are getting killed inside.
5. Leave Mike James in the game – even when he’s jacking up shots (and missing all of them)
The Wizards Coaches and Front Office keep saying all the right things – - – but they may have already given up on the season.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Tanking the season is one thing...
risking your seed corn (the young players) is another… I suppose that playing a guard rotation of Dixon, Stevenson and James will net the players involved some decent numbers that might enhance their trade value, but at what cost?
I’m with you Rook. Butler should be starting at the 2-guard to open us up to going big across the front line with McGee, Blatche and Jamison. Mike James should start at the point until Gil returns and Nick Young should be the first guard off the bench in any case. DeShawn should be the backup point, again until Gil returns, and Taser and DSong should be the back-ups at the 3 and 4.
We need to log a win against Indiana at home to begin rebuilding confidence.
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