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Starting lineup/rotation, PER, and +/-

Editor's Note: You know I love stats, so you know I was going to love this FanPost. -PM

Based on the first 3 games, the five man unit of AD/DS/CB/AJ/and anyone just isn't working on the offensive end.  The spacing is wrong, the ball stops too often (I'm looking at you, Deshawn and Caron), and the transition game is almost nonexistent (though this is largely a defensive problem, which I'll get to).

This is reflected in the PERs of the starters:

AD-14.24,

DS-11.21

CB-15.18

AJ-17.76

ET-15.53/AB-11.75

I'm not saying they can't produce more--AD probably isn't going to do more than that,  and ET has probably been lucky to have as high a TS% as he's had already--but there is probably opportunity for improvement from the others INDIVIDUALLY.  I just don't see improvement coming so long as they are playing extended minutes as a unit.

Right now, the two team leaders in PER are Young and Dixon.  They are also the leaders in +/-, and by an even wider margin.  And, to my eye, the movement and spacing are better with them in the game right now than any other back court combination.  We can get into the reasons, but I don't see how the basic idea can be disputed.  My theory is that because both have an outside/midrange game and at least the threat of a drive, teams are playing them more honestly.  They do seem also to be coordinating well, for the most part.

Right now, CB (15.18) and AJ (17.76) are both producing at league-average levels.  Whether their relatively low production is hurting AD/DS or whether they are being dragged down by problems caused by AD/DS is hard to say for certain (I'm hoping it is the latter).  But, something must change.  I would like very much to see Young and Dixon paired with CB and AJ for some extended run.  It doesn't have to mean moving them into the starting lineup.  Start subbing at the 7:00 mark in Q1, and get those 4 on the floor together for 5-7 minutes and see how it goes.  Hopefully Eddie Jordan's comments about "veterans" points to something like this happening.

On offense, I don't think there is a good option at the 5.  I haven't had a problem watching D-Song at that end, but his PER of 9.13 makes me feel like I'm missing something there.  I like the idea of Javale getting putbacks and garbage scores, but he just isn't a finisher at this point, even if he does seem to have the instincts to become one.  AB has been bad, but I would hope that being grouped with a 4-man unit that otherwise is working well would get him into some better habits.  Javale's PER is a surprisingly high 14.96, but that seems mostly supported by an excellent rebound rate and a solid BS rate--his TS% is abysmal.

On defense, I think they need to throw McGee in and hope for the best.  Otherwise, this team can't guard the basket at all.  I don't care how physical Thomas and D-Song are, so long as the offensive player is willing to drive knowing there will be contact, this team can't stop him.  And if it is a player that drives looking for contact, this team is toast.  The only question is whether he'll be shooting 2 or an and-1.  Blatche offers a little bit more in the middle than Thomas or D-Song, but he is not intimidating anyone, and when he gets caught out of position, which happens too often, he is an and-1 machine.  McGee offers the best chance right now to alter the way teams are attacking the Wiz D.  Maybe he isn't ready, but I've liked what I've seen (thankfully, it seems Eddie has too), and it is worth a shot.

At the guards, I've been pleasantly surprised by Young's effort and attentiveness.  If Arenas would play like that when he returns, they could survive out on the floor together on D and be a hellacious combo on O.

Aside from the earlier mention of Young and Dixon, I'm not sure what +/- tells us right now:

http://www.82games.com/0809/0809WAS.HTM

I suppose it confirms that CB/AJ are functioning around league average (both around 0), and that DS/AD aren't helping.  I'm surprised that McGee is the only player with a worse +/- than the murderers' row that is Daniels/Blatche/Thomas/Stevenson. 

Unfortunately, it looks like 82 games' 5-man unit ratings hasn't been updated for the last couple of games.  That would be a nice data point to have.  But, I think this team needs to try giving extended minutes to a 5-man unit that hasn't seen any real time together--JD/NY/CB/AJ/JM--while working others in and out of the lineup, not running the wider substitution pattern that has been used so far.  Note that I'm not criticizing Eddie's substitution pattern to this point.  I think it is all justified and has provided some useful information.  But.....that's enough.

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

1 recs  |  Comment 3 comments

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Juan Dixon = DPOY

Defense when Juan Dixon is on the court: 84.1 points per 100 possessions.
Defense when Juan Dixon is off the court: 127.9 points per 100 possessions.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by JakeTheSnake on Nov 6, 2008 2:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It seems when

Juan is on the court our offense is better as well. I don’t know if the stats back this up or not but he’s shooting the ball with more restrain and he’s shooting it better than what I thought he would. I sometimes wish he would actually shoot more when the offense is stagnant and it seems no one else can produce. He seriously needs to start in front of AD, if not him at least start Nick. Based on that quote Eddie said after the game it seems like he is learning that just because you’ve been in the league longer doesn’t mean you’re going to produce better than someone who’s younger.

by bigrm18 on Nov 6, 2008 3:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Amazing

I had a gut feeling that he’d be good for us this year. I can see he’s real pesky as a defender, but I didn’t realize he was that effective.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Nov 6, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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