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Open Thread: Regular season game 14 vs. Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, Nov 29, 2008 7:00 PM EST


Laettner1_medium 

The Essentials:
Hawks (9-6) at Wizards (2-11)
7 p.m.
Verizon Center
CSN

Previously:
November 19: Hawks 91, Wizards 87.

Notable Hawks numbers this season (pound the salt):
14th (5th East) in expected winning percentage (.536)
23rd (12th) in pace factor (93.6 possessions per game)
T7th (T2nd) in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (108.5)
23rd (11th) in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (107.4)

Notable Hawks numbers last season:
18th (9th East) in expected winning percentage (.436)
18th (8th) in pace factor (91.1 possessions per game)
16th (6th) in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (106.9)
18th (8th) in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (108.9)

Key Links (drop any others in the comments)
Peachtree Hoops
Zaza's Playground
Sekou Smith's blog 
Wizards Insider: The Other Side: Atlanta Hawks

Starting Lineups:
Hawks
PG: Mike Bibby
SG: Joe Johnson
SF: Marvin Williams
PF: Al Horford
C: Zaza Pachulia

Wizards
PG: Dee Brown
SG: DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Caron Butler
PF: Antawn Jamison
C: JaVale McGee

Tonight's Lines
Hawks at Wizards: Wizards by 1.5
Over/Under on Total Scoring: 199.5

Long preview!

Glass glass glass: Our first game against the Hawks was one of the many early-season games where we were pounded on the defensive glass.  Atlanta grabbed an obscene 42.3% of its misses in the November 19 game, which essentially was the reason they won since they only posted a 44% eFG% for the game.  We didn't spend much time with Darius Songaila in at center in that game either, so it's not like the problem is going to completely go away.  Atlanta's ninth in the league in offensive rebound percentage, after all.

Zaza Pachulia had a lot to do with Atlanta's rebounding dominance last time.  He had 18 boards himself, eight of which were offensive.  The good news is that maybe Mike Woodson will help us out and sit him the entire fourth quarter like he did in Atlanta's five-point loss to Toronto last night. 

With 3:32 left in the third quarter, Zaza Pachulia went to the bench. The Hawks were up 2, in no small part thanks to the 8 offensive and 9 defensive rebounds Pachulia had already grabbed. By the end of the third quarter, the Hawks would be down by 4 points. In the fourth quarter, the Hawks would never regain the lead. As a team they would grab, in the fourth quarter, just 7 defensive rebounds. Toronto would grab 15 fourth quarter rebounds, 4 of them offensive. Pachulia would never leave the bench.

So...yeah...maybe that'll happen again.

Three-point test: It's only 15 games into the season for Atlanta, yet they lead the league in three-point shooting percentage.  Atlanta is hitting 42 percent of its threes this year, powered by the dynamic foursome of Maurice Evans (49.1%), Marvin Williams (45.7%), Mike Bibby (43.5%) and Joe Johnson (39.6%).  The Wizards' defense under Eddie Jordan treated the three-point line as if it was filled with land mines.  This will be a good test to see how far the team has come in eradicating its bad habits under Ed Tapscott.

Mid-November blues: So Atlanta is 9-6, but they are 3-6 since starting the season with six straight victories.  A lot of that has been the absence of Josh Smith, but perhaps Atlanta just isn't that good.  Their three wins during this stretch came by 4 over us, by five over the Bobcats and by six over the Bucks.  Not exactly impressive.

What's the problem?  For one, Atlanta's not defending anymore.  They were outstanding through four games, but sit just 23rd in efficiency right now.  I imagine that'll pick up with Smith's healthy return, but either way, we're seeing a regression back to the mean. 

The other issue is Joe Johnson.  As if he wanted to prove my assertion that he's about as far away from a first option as Pluto is to Earth, he's gone out and shot 33 percent from the field in his last five games.  That has prompted some people to go out and argue that the problem is that Joe Johnson doesn't get superstar treatment from the referees.  Right. 

Tired or not, the problem is that Joe Johnson isn't anywhere close to a superstar.  He's a decent third option who can do some things well, but can't be the go-to scorer on a good team.  This is what we call "regression to the mean."  JJ's a nice player, but without Josh Smith, he's being asked to do way too much.  The more JJ shoots tonight, the better off we'll be.

Pushing it: Atlanta's coming off a grueling five-point loss to the Raptors last night in Toronto, so they're making the journey down to D.C. in one day.  Atlanta's bench didn't exactly get in much action either.  Johnson played 44 minutes.  Williams played 40.  Al Horford played 37.  Mike Bibby played 35.  Meanwhile, Flip Murray, Solomon Jones and Acie Law played a combined 27 minutes.  They may be tired, so pushing the pace early is key.

My Firefox plug-in isn't working, so I'll just have to go off my subjective feeling that we've played faster in these last two games under Ed Tapscott.  That may be because we played Golden State and Orlando, two teams who are in the top 10 in pace this season, but Tapscott has said that he wants to run more.  Running will be key tonight, since Atlanta's a slow-paced team that is tired and on the second game of a back-to-back.

I'm going out to dinner tonight with the family, so I'll probably catch this on delay.  For those watching, comment here.

GO WIZARDS!

Comment 125 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Comments

Display:

We're the favorites? Wow.

Eh, I’ll take the Wiz anyway and I’ll take the over.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 6:54 PM EST reply actions  

Pech gave Songaila a shiner!

There better be a report on this.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 7:12 PM EST reply actions  

I dunno

They said it was some accident during a shooting practice between the two of them. That’s all they said.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 7:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Stop. The. Ball.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 7:15 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks Josh!

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 7:23 PM EST reply actions  

Goodness gracious

How did Antawn hit that?

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 7:27 PM EST reply actions  

maybe it's just me

but I’d rather the team get killed from post play than with threes.

by Pryme on Nov 29, 2008 7:27 PM EST reply actions  

At this rate, yeah

Giving up 100% on 2 pt. shots is probably better than giving up 100% on 3 pt. shots.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Nick!

He probably made that shot harder than it had to be, but it worked out.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 7:49 PM EST reply actions  

Songaila!

Other than Blatche, he’s probably benefited the most from Ed Tapscott.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 7:52 PM EST reply actions  

no doubt

and tonight, he’s giving showing the team way he should be playing.

by Pryme on Nov 29, 2008 7:59 PM EST up reply actions  

That was all ball

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 7:56 PM EST reply actions  

3-point defense

So, when does Tapscott tell Stevenson, Young, Daniels and the rest of the guards to stick close to their man at the 3-point line?

Atlanta is hitting OVER 60% of their 3’s….

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 8:03 PM EST reply actions  

I just got here

Only 16 comments at halftime? Is everyone still out of town or do I complain about Stevenson in these things more than I think I do?

by Jon L on Nov 29, 2008 8:07 PM EST reply actions  

I think it's my odor

I could’ve swore I showered today…

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow

I think Caron was a bit peeved about giving up that last basket. I think that ball had to sail at least 5 feet over the rim.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 8:07 PM EST reply actions  

ouch

classic Wiz: they do everything defensively on that possession except securing the rebound.

by Pryme on Nov 29, 2008 8:09 PM EST reply actions  

Halftime viewing

Atlanta’s Air Force

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 8:11 PM EST reply actions  

Ugly half

56 percent shooting for Atlanta? How about getting some stops?

by Matt K. on Nov 29, 2008 8:18 PM EST reply actions  

Bibby

apparently shoots better against the Wizards than any other team. I’m glad he’s not in our division or anything.

by Jon L on Nov 29, 2008 8:22 PM EST reply actions  

What is that

Butler’s like 10th missed layup/shot within three feet?

by Jon L on Nov 29, 2008 8:29 PM EST reply actions  

Put McGuire on Bibby

At least try something; this is ridiculous. He only shoots jumpers, but he keeps getting open.

by Matt K. on Nov 29, 2008 8:30 PM EST reply actions  

One problem

other than Stevenson and Daniels being awful this year, is that it looks like the defensive scheme places the players closer to the paint, and then calls for doubling which collapses the zone even more. I know Randy Ayers has a good reputation, but from what I’ve seen this season the defensive scheme leaves a lot to be desired.

by Jon L on Nov 29, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Amen

Washington has been giving up oodles of wide open baseline jumpers.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Amen2

And wide open Top of the Key jumpers…. and wide open left arc jumpers….. and wide open right arc jumpers…. and…………….

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 8:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I agree

All you have to do is set up a screen around the top and then have someone like Marvin Williams in the corner. Seems to be open consistently.

by Matt K. on Nov 29, 2008 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Contrast and compare

The Wizards are always stationed 2-3 feet inside the three point line. Always. Yet when they have the ball, the Hawks defenders are right there at the three-point line with them. At what point does this get written about?

by Jon L on Nov 29, 2008 8:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Why does Stevenson

play so many minutes? I don’t get it.

by Matt K. on Nov 29, 2008 8:40 PM EST reply actions  

Gah

I don’t think I even want to know what our FG% in the paint is.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 8:43 PM EST reply actions  

Justin from Bel Air, MD

I didn’t know Stevenson had relatives in MD.

by Jon L on Nov 29, 2008 8:44 PM EST reply actions  

I think that's kind of been the story in most of the games this season.

We get a break and then we screw it up somehow.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Tough job

Being the guy in the CSN truck who has to find good Wizards plays to show as they’re going to commercial.

Ugly, just ugly.

by Jon L on Nov 29, 2008 8:49 PM EST reply actions  

Egads

I’m not sure I remember the last time that AD hit two treys in one game.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 8:54 PM EST reply actions  

Egads x2

I’m not sure that I remember ever thinking that AD threw up a heat check.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Sometimes it seems like McGee makes shots a lot harder than they need to be…

by Gilbert4SpaceJam2 on Nov 29, 2008 9:00 PM EST reply actions  

go up STRONG big man!

He didn’t need to double-clutch….

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:01 PM EST up reply actions  

One of the Wizards weaknesses – even though they have a lot of bigs….. None of them are strong finishers around the rim. All of them try to finesse the ball…. Blatche, Antawn, McGee (except on oops), Songaila, and Pech…. (Etan Thomas goes up strong, but STILL can’t finish)…

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

This is where Eddie Jordan's teams failed

4th Quarter -

5-6 minutes left…. close game

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:05 PM EST reply actions  

Tie game

5 minutes left-

Can they finish?

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Atlanta with two consecutive stops – up by 5… with 3:24 left.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Defensive stop at 1:33

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

3 by Butler to tie the game

Wizards playing good D in the last 4 minutes or so.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Anyone hear that explanation by Chenier?

Butler fouled Horford because he didn’t want Songaila to get his 4th? huh?

by Matt K. on Nov 29, 2008 9:09 PM EST reply actions  

He meant that once they called the foul, Butler took credit for it so it wouldn’t be called on Songaila

by Gilbert4SpaceJam2 on Nov 29, 2008 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I got that part

But I doubt that refs call fouls just on the guy who raises his hand…

by Matt K. on Nov 29, 2008 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

actually

If there’s a chance to give it to the guy raising his hand – they frequently DO

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:11 PM EST up reply actions  

In that particular case, Butler was reaching in as Songaila was bumping him…. so the Ref had the option to call it either way.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Ahh!

Pech is wearing the blazer!

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 9:14 PM EST reply actions  

Please guys:

don’t give up anymore threes. Please.

by Pryme on Nov 29, 2008 9:15 PM EST reply actions  

Songaila is carrying us on offense

and killing us on defense. No more fouls please?

by Gilbert4SpaceJam2 on Nov 29, 2008 9:16 PM EST reply actions  

A review!

I feel special.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 9:17 PM EST reply actions  

3!!!!

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 9:19 PM EST reply actions  

Tied

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:19 PM EST reply actions  

Get Songaila out of the freaking game. HE SUCKS.

by se7en on Nov 29, 2008 9:21 PM EST reply actions  

Except

he’s been playing GREAT defense…. moving without the ball… and has 16 points on 5-8 shooting…

I don’t see how having one pass , (thrown pretty hard from a few feet away) go through his hands – and now he SUCKS?

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

If anyone other than Butler or Jamison takes this last shot, I will be very angry…

by Gilbert4SpaceJam2 on Nov 29, 2008 9:22 PM EST reply actions  

Wait

they just reported exactly what the play will be? Can they do that?

by Jon L on Nov 29, 2008 9:23 PM EST reply actions  

Apparently they can

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 29, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

THIS is where they miss Arenas

Perhaps they should put Young in – he can create his own shot….

Need a 3, and Atlanta is gonna be playing for it. – So take a quick 2 and foul

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:24 PM EST reply actions  

Gak - cough, cough, gurgle

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:26 PM EST reply actions  

is that DeShawn

wrapping both hands around his neck and squeezing?

by Pryme on Nov 29, 2008 9:27 PM EST up reply actions  

The Wizards

where slowly killing your fans happens.

by Matt K. on Nov 29, 2008 9:28 PM EST reply actions  

Seriously?

We couldn’t get the ball to Jamison or Butler?

by bigrm18 on Nov 29, 2008 9:28 PM EST reply actions  

I meant to say it

Like this team seriously sucks more than I thought.

by bigrm18 on Nov 29, 2008 9:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Question:

Does this current stretch debunk the “Gilbert doesn’t really make his teammates better” myth or not?

by Pryme on Nov 29, 2008 9:30 PM EST reply actions  

Haha.

What’s the difference between the teams? Roger’s hot hand and Haywood’s disrupting D.

We lack both.

by se7en on Nov 29, 2008 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

NO

Gilbert is selfish -

He selfishly takes (and makes) all the important end of the game shots…. Keeping guys like Stevenson from shooting (and missing) the final shots…

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:32 PM EST up reply actions  

If that's the definition of Selfish

Then I’d wish Jamison and Butler were more selfish.

by se7en on Nov 29, 2008 9:32 PM EST up reply actions  

uh……. yeah!! Exactly.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 29, 2008 9:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Blech

I saw the last possession. I’ll re-watch tonight.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 29, 2008 9:31 PM EST reply actions  

Have Fun

I was pessimistic the entire game. Knew it was over from the beginning. Just like you will when you watch it.

by se7en on Nov 29, 2008 9:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Horrible officiating

Garbage officiating, did The Hawks pay the referee to stop the game to anaylze a clear 3 pointer to stop the Wizards momentum… I wish everytime the Hawks were feelin hot they would stop the game and anaylze there 3 point shots

When someone gets pushed or hit isnt that a foul?? I dont care what anyone says this was a badly officiating game, at one point Bibby completely went up and down without releasing the ball and there was no call, Jamison was pushed multiple times no call, Stevenson hit no call, Caron got good calls atleast (they seemed to favor Caron more), but when Hartford even moved FOUL… Whatever, waits for Arenas’ return

by Unxpekted on Nov 29, 2008 9:31 PM EST reply actions  

I feel your pain

But it’s not like this is the first time the Wizards have lost a very winnable game. The Wizards are just a very bad team right now. It’s unfortunate.

But yeah, still, stupid refs…

by Matt K. on Nov 29, 2008 9:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Bad teams don't get calls

And it takes them awhile to get respect once they start playing well. I remember the first time MJ didn’t get a call as a Wizard; it was quite a sight. He stared that ref down the entire night. Or Stackhouse, who made a career off getting to the line (especially in Detroit). Once he got here, the calls went down, his trips to the line went down, and he became yet another mediocre shooter for the Wizards.

by Pryme on Nov 29, 2008 9:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Minutes Watch

Jamison played 41 minutes, Butler played 40 and a half.
AD played 37 and a half minutes
Stevenson played 34 minutes
Songaila played a little less than 24 minutes
Blatche played 19 minutes
NY played 17 and a half minutes
McGee played just over 13 minutes
Dee Brown, Starting Point Guard played 7 minutes
McGuire played 4 minutes
Thomas played 2 minutes.

by Jon L on Nov 29, 2008 9:33 PM EST reply actions  

McGee Only 13 Minutes

That’s okay to you? I guess this will depend upon how he’s playing, but I agree that Stevenson should play less, McGuire more, but I think Young should have at least 20 minutes and Songaila have MUCH less.

by se7en on Nov 29, 2008 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

He wasn't playing well

Wasn’t pulling down rebounds, wasn’t defending particularly well…

Tonight, 13’s about right.

by Jon L on Nov 29, 2008 10:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Depression kicks in, watches old Pheonix victory where Arenas Scores 54 pts

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkUkzbgVlOE

by Unxpekted on Nov 29, 2008 9:39 PM EST reply actions  

AHHHHH

The good old days. But who was the guy in the Wizards uniform that scored 54 points again? I wouldn’t mind having him on our team right about now. He seems like a pretty good player if you ask me.

by bigrm18 on Nov 29, 2008 9:57 PM EST up reply actions  

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