Haywood's "breakout" year? - - - Nah.....

by Rook6980 on Nov 26, 2008 8:26 PM EST Comment 19 comments

The perception that Haywood somehow had a "breakout" year last year is somewhat ....... well........wrong.

Yes - he scored more... Yes - he rebounded more....

But his per-40 minute stats have been remarkably similar for the last 4-5 years.

So why the "breakout"?

He was simply given more minutes last year because Thomas was out. The same can be said about the 06-07 run when the Wizards were leading the Eastern Conference. Thomas was hurt, and Haywood was getting minutes, and putting up numbers.

Here are some stats - - -

Points per 40 minutes:
2003-04     14.5
2004-05     13.7
2005-06     12.2
2006-07     11.7
2007-08     15.2

Rebounds per 40 minutes:
2003-04     10.4
2004-05     10.0
2005-06     9.9
2006-07     11.0
2007-08     10.3

Rebound rate:
2003-04     14.6
2004-05     14.0
2005-06     14.5
2006-07     15.7
2007-08     15.2

Rebound Rate is the percentage of missed shots that a player rebounds.

The only stat that really jumps out at me as dramatically higher than the other years, is Haywood's Free Throw percentage in 2007-08. He went from being a poor FT shooter (less than 60%) to a good one (74%)... Which helped to contribute to a slightly higher per 40 minute scoring average.

What these stats tend to indicate is that, all along, Haywood has been a very capable NBA Starting Center. His per-40 stats stack up well against other front line Eastern Conference Centers like Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Al Horford, Jermaine O'Neal and Rasheed Wallace. ** He was just not given the minutes of a Starter until last year.

** I left Dwight Howard off that list, .........well, because quite frankly, comparing him to ANYONE else is just not fair.

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

1 recs | Comment 19 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Uhh....so what stat shows....

That last year Haywood stopped being a big Mr. Softie, and thus, broke out of the “Brenda” mold?

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Nov 27, 2008 5:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The point is that there was never really any "Brenda" mode

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 27, 2008 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You never thought he was playing "soft"?

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Dec 1, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What does that even mean?

And no, I didn’t. He’s not a great rebounder, but he clears space away. Always has. And as far as his finishing around the basket, the numbers just don’t support the view that he’s improved in that area.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Dec 1, 2008 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would say that...

Aside from what the stats say, that Haywood was not playing with toughness….not taking the ball to the hoop, or rebounding strong, against big men of similar stature……he appeared soft and unable to be as aggressive as people expected.

I don’t think the “Brenda” moniker came out of thin air.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Dec 1, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hook

i think the view that haywood is/was soft came from that stupid fade-away hook shot that was kind of his go to move in the post. ive always liked his game defensively

by joshp on Dec 5, 2008 1:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I think in this case the truth is being hidden by the stats. It’s the simple eye test.

'he nails an open three from the corner....just like you and me, this one was made by penetration' - Truthaboutit - Round 1 Game 5 Recap

by KDP on Nov 28, 2008 9:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Use the "rec" button

Instead of +1. Thanks.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 28, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bendan is Brendan

The point is that Brendan is Brendan. If you give him minutes, he puts up respectable numbers. Give him fewer minutes – he puts up lower numbers.

The upside to all those stats, is that Brendan is pretty consistent.
The downside is that He’ll probably never really get much better.

He is what he is.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 28, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that plus one was to truth's comment

'he nails an open three from the corner....just like you and me, this one was made by penetration' - Truthaboutit - Round 1 Game 5 Recap

by KDP on Nov 28, 2008 9:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

You Can Rec Individual Comments

Just hit the “actions” link and you’ll see a “Rec” button.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Dec 1, 2008 7:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ft%

made a huge difference. he also scored out of the post more effectively last year. the team was playing a slower pace, so per minute numbers that has to mean he did a bit more last year, right?

sorry, i think it’s pretty clear from watching the guy that he had a career year last year. even hollinger, mr. stats was writing off haywood’s season last year as a “fluke rule”.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 28, 2008 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

He had a career year offensively

Because of the FT% and the lower turnover rate, but defensively, he was the same as always. In that sense, he wasn’t really a changed player, since we need him for defense, not offense.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 28, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry. i think that's splitting hairs

he had a career year. he’s also catching and finishing much better around the basket in recent years. that stuff matters.

i’ve never disliked haywood. i never called him brenda, in fact i dislike that people did that. but i also dispute the idea that he would have played as well as he did last year if he had just had the guaranteed minutes. we need him to do something on offense too.

he gets better every year as a player.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 29, 2008 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

he’s also catching and finishing much better around the basket in recent years. that stuff matters.

I can’t speak for catching, as I assume that’s incorporated in his lower turnover rate, but as far as finishing:

2006/07 FG% inside: 66.7.
2007/08 FG inside: 67.1%.

Not a huge difference, though both are better than his 05/06 mark.

2006/07 was not a particularly good year statistically for Haywood, so it’s probably wrong to say that the FT% and low TO% were the only differences then, but if you look at Haywood’s 2004/05 to 07/08, for example, the comparison’s more apt.

I also don’t think it was only the extended minutes, because he didn’t actually play that many more minutes than in years past. It was more the consistent minutes.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 29, 2008 11:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oops

Meant to be a reply to DWF. I broke my own rule.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 29, 2008 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and i simply think

he was a better player last year. there were a lot of factors, but consistent minutes was not the only one.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 30, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK - so stats can't make the argument?

In 2006-07, when absolutely everyone was complaining about Haywood’s “effort”…. and when Eddie Jordan was vascillating between starters, jerking Haywoods minutes from game to game….. Haywood was still putting up decent numbers (when adjusted for minutes)..

In 2006-07 in games where Haywood had 25 minutes or more (Starter minutes), here’s his per-40 minute averages:
11.8 Points, 11.3 Rebounds, 1.3 Assists, 1.9 Blocks

In 2007-08, when Haywood supposedly had his “breakout” year, here’s the same stats (25 or more minutes) per-40 minute averages:
15.3 Points, 10.8 Rebounds, 1.3 Assists, 2.4 Blocks

Part of the increase in points can be directly attributed to Haywood’s improved Free Throw shooting…. He hit an additional 100 Free Throws in 2007-08, increasing his scoring average by 1.25 per game.

So Haywood’s HUGE BREAKOUT season consisted of about 2 points, and half a block per game than in 2006-07.

I am definately not trying to infer that Haywood did not have a good year last year – nor that he didn’t improve in certain areas (Free Throws, Finishing around the basket, etc…) – but that his improvement can’t be considered a “breakout” year – since, when he was given minutes, he ALWAYS produced…

By the way – just to be fair and 100% accurate, here are the per-40 numbers for Haywood for games in which he played between 10 and 24 minutes:

2006-07 – 12.0 Points, 10.1 rebounds, 0.8 Assists, 2.0 Blocks
2007-08 – 14.7 Points, 8.7 Rebounds, 1.4 Assists, 2.5 Blocks
(remember to take off 1.25 points in 2007-08 for the improved FT shooting)….

Again – remarkably consistent production from Haywood… even when he was given Non-Starter minutes.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Nov 30, 2008 4:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

don't know what to say

i don’t think haywood necessarily had a HUGE BREAKOUT YEAR last year, but i do think he was significantly better. 3 points a game seems significant to me, especially when you adjust for pace. check that – all his stats probably look better when you adjust for pace.

rather than writing off improving his FT% from 54.8% to 73.5% as something that skews the stats, i look at that as something that makes him remarkably more effective as a player. no longer does a missed and-one on an offensive rebound or a drive and dish mean we come away short a point that possession. this also gives him more confidence to go up strong around the hoop because he believes he can hit his free throws. last year was also definitely the first year where he developed a turnaround fadeaway jumper that he was somewhat effective with.

we all know he could defend, especially one-on-one defend in the post, but no longer was he an offensive liability on the other side of the court, or someone who went up soft or had hands of stone. again, that change for the better was quite remarkable to see last year.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 1, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs