Atlanta Hawks 91, Washington Wizards 87
Box Score
Game Flow
Post Recap
Times Recap
Wizards Insider makes an economy analogy
Peachtree Hoops (which should be a daily read for you guys if it isn't already)
BDL: Behind the boxscore (see item #2)
ESPN Daily Dime (see #2)
Atlanta Journal Constitution
AJC columnist continues to drink the kool-aid
Highest Plus/Minus: Etan Thomas (+4 in 16:16)
Lowest Plus/Minus: Darius Songaila (-5 in 6:10)
Best Five Man Unit: DeShawn Stevenson, Nick Young, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Etan Thomas (+4 for 3:20 in 2nd quarter)
Worst Five Man Unit: Dee Brown, Nick Young, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Darius Songaila (-3 for 3:32 in third quarter)
Four Factors:
| Team | Pace | Off Eff | eFG% | FT/FG | OREB% | TO% |
| Washington | 88.7 | 98.9 | 45.9 | 10.6 | 21.7 | 13.6 |
| Atlanta | 103.4 | 44 | 20.2 | 42.3 (wow!) | 19.3 |
As some of you may know, I was the sports editor for my college newspaper last year and am a higher-up editor this year (see my bylines if you're so inclined). After our men's basketball team lost two home heartbreakers to two of its biggest rivals, the second loss of which happened in a very similar way to the Wizards' loss last night, I wrote a column that began with the following words.
A team never outright loses a game on one possession, yet one possession can be emblematic of its structural flaws.
It's kind of been my philosophy on analyzing games. You can never point to one single possession and say "That cost us the game!," but you can look at it and say "That's the best illustration of our problems."
Let's apply this concept to last night's loss. The problems the Wizards have are numerous. They don't have great talent without Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood. They are not being coached well. They don't move the ball offensively and get the ball into the right people's hands. They have no inside presence. They have veterans who stink and young guys who are talented, but erratic. They can't rebound or defend. On and on.
With all these issues, one cannot say the Wizards did not lose this game exclusively because of their late-game execution problems. Truth be told, if there was a stretch that cost us the game, it was when we decided to go to a third-quarter lineup with Darius Songaila in at center, particularly when Atlanta was destroying us on the glass. But the one possession at the end, after Atlanta took the lead, was where all our limitations came into play.
From what I gather, the play had two options. The first was for Caron Butler to get the ball from Juan Dixon and make a play, after Caron ran around a bit to keep the defense honest. The second option was for Dixon to then dribble and find Antawn Jamison in the post, who had set a screen for Nick Young to run to the weakside corner. The idea was to get Flip Murray switched onto Jamison, and that worked.
As we all know, the play did not work. Let's go through this problem by problem.
PROBLEM: The Wizards don't have great talent with their injuries.
SPECIFICALLY: The Wizards don't have Gilbert Arenas to close games.
ILLUSTRATION: Caron Butler doesn't do enough to get the ball and Juan Dixon doesn't try to get it to him at all costs.
PROBLEM: Eddie Jordan is not coaching well.
SPECIFICALLY: Eddie Jordan is not setting up good plays and Jordan's players are not executing what he wants well. Eddie Jordan isn't playing the right players
ILLUSTRATION: Dixon picks up his dribble too early without knowing what he wanted to do. Butler doesn't get the ball. Jamison doesn't fight for position well enough. Nick Young takes too long to clear out the side. Dee Brown, a better passer, is out while gunner Dixon is in.
PROBLEM: The Wizards are not passing the ball well and getting it to the right people in the right place.
SPECIFICALLY: Caron Butler isn't getting the ball enough at the end of games and Juan Dixon/Nick Young are using too many late possessions.
ILLUSTRATION: Dixon can't get Butler the ball. Dixon can't get Jamison the ball, despite Jamison having six inches on Flip Murray. Failing that, Dixon shoots it like he always does instead of resetting and getting Young or Stevenson open on the weakside. Young grabs the rebound and immediately flings a wild putback when he could have kicked out to Stevenson for a wide open three.
PROBLEM: The Wizards have no inside presence.
SPECIFICALLY: Antawn Jamison doesn't have as much space as usual. Brendan Haywood is out. Nobody is a threat rolling to the rim.
ILLUSTRATION: Jamison struggles for position against Murray, making it more difficult for Dixon to get him the ball as usual. Nobody gives Butler a screen because nobody can set a good screen. The only shots we can get are contested long jumpers.
PROBLEM: The Wizards have veterans who stink and youngsters who are erratic.
SPECIFICALLY: Eddie Jordan can't rely on either group.
ILLUSTRATION: Dixon can't get his stars the ball. Young shoots a wild shot on the rebound. Stevenson doesn't space the floor well enough, drifting too close to the top of the key instead of the weakside.
PROBLEM: The Wizards can't defend or rebound.
SPECIFICALLY: This needs no elaboration.
ILLUSTRATION: Every Hawks score down the stretch before this possession.
Basically, every problem we have as a team was illustrated in some way on that last possession. If you were asked to boil our entire season down to one possession, that last one would be it.
No, that one possession was not the difference in the game. Our inability to rebound really, really hurt. Atlanta is a good offensive rebounding team, but they should not be able to grab over 40 percent of their missed shots. Going small during a key stretch of the game certainly didn't help matters either. Our offensive execution was bad even before that final possession as well.
But man, that one possession just sums everything up. You can tell just by watching that possession occur that the problem with this team isn't their effort level. It's their talent, execution and on-court smart that are killing them.
Other notes:
- Putting JaVale McGee in the starting lineup probably benefits Etan Thomas as much as it benefits JaVale. You saw how reasonably effective Etan can be coming off the bench. No, he'll never be totally serviceable, but he plays better when he doesn't start.
- Liked the decision to start Dee Brown. It's pretty sad that we have to get to that point though.
- Anyone remember Juan Dixon 2.0? The Juan Dixon we saw in the first three games? Clearly, that Juan Dixon is gone and the Juan Dixon from his earlier stint here is back. In the last two games, Juan is 5 for 19 from the floor and is shooting so many long twos its crazy.
- I don't understand why Andray Blatche keeps trying to make things happen with the ball. He's a very good screener and slipper, why doesn't he use those skills more often?
- Caron is an absolute beast. He deserves much better. Antawn's also defending better than he was earlier in the season.
- JaVale needed more than 22 minutes. I also want to see Eddie run some more plays for him. He's our only guy with a somewhat decent post game.
- It's annoying to hear Atlanta's broadcasters wax about how Joe Johnson is their "superstar." Johnson wasn't defended all that well and he still had a terrible shooting night. He's a third option masquerading as a first option on a team with two key guys hurt.
- I was impressed by Marvin Williams. He looks much improved from last year
- Other than playing Songaila at center, no real complaints about Eddie's playing rotation. JaVale should have played a little more and DeShawn a little less, but it's only minor quibbles
1 recs |
17 comments
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Comments
Excellent recap.
I agree on all points. Can’t explain it much better than that.
by Matt K. on Nov 20, 2008 3:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
way better analysis than what's on the WashPost Insider
Where’s it’s nothing but an echo chamber of trading our worst players for all-Stars (seriously, how often does that happen?) and calls for Avery Johnson to come coach the team (HA!).
by Pryme on Nov 20, 2008 3:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well maybe not an all-star...
but backcourt help is seriously needed…. I am assuming that management wants to see how Antonio has responded to his 3-game rest before doing anything, and that makes good sense… If he does not move well against the Rockets tonight, however, it might be time to send out an SOS.
The thought of Avery Johnson coaching the Wiz is a bit scary, isn’t it?
Good analysis though… Etan can contribute off the bench, but we still should be seeing more minutes for JaVale.
by khrabb on Nov 20, 2008 4:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The problem with Caron Butler and the ball at the end of games.
In late game instances, teams are going to double Butler to get the ball out of his hands (because he’s the best option the Wiz have) and he almost always has to make an immediate pass.
If you notice with a lot of “go-to” players in the NBA, even with Gilbert, they have the ball handling skills to swiftly get out of double trouble themselves (or at least away from it). When they do it well, they either give themselves an open lane for a drive, or better yet, attract attention to get better passing lanes and more passing options.
Last night for example, with 45 seconds left, Butler got doubled (slightly) at the top of the arc, but he couldn’t create anything out of that….all he had was a desperation pass to DeShawn on the wing, who threw up an air ball.
…..Not to mention that Butler dribbled the ball around way too much, leading to stagnant movement as precious seconds ticked away….the Wiz eventually got a 24 second shot clock violation.
Sure, at this point, Butler is probably the best option for the Wizards in late game situations….unless Jamison has a mis-match, or unless Nick Young gets a transplant of ice-water in his veins…….but Caron either needs to develop some quickness and handles (not happening now), or the Wizards need to depend on their motion offense and not one player trying to do it themselves.
I guess my point is that Butler cannot create straight up off the dribble and that’s a problem in late, close game situations.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on Nov 20, 2008 5:00 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Here's what I've never understood about the Wizards and late-game situations
Why don’t they stick with movement on offense in the last minute of games. Ball movement, player movement and good spacing is the only way this team is going to be effective on offense, but that stuff never seems to be utilized at the end of games.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Nov 20, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
good point
i even get tired of the gilbert iso – every time…
by DarrellWalkerFan on Nov 20, 2008 8:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yea, sometimes I wonder....
If that’s an NBA thing or a Wizards thing.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on Nov 20, 2008 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Think it's more of an NBA thing
Defensive intensity really picks up at the end of close games, so the motion that had been working because you could get away from your defender works less often.
I have no problem with a Gilbert iso to end the game. I have a problem with Arenas waiting too long to make his move.
As for Butler, I agree with pretty much everything Truth said. Because of Caron’s strengths, the Wizards should be running a play to get him the ball in the midpost rather than the top of the key. With Gilbert, it works because Gilbert is quick and never turns the ball over. Butler’s strength is his … strength, so he should be getting the ball closer to the hoop.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Nov 21, 2008 3:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's good to see Etan do so well off the bench
And Javale McGee will only get better as a starter. I didn’t see the game so I don’t feel the disappointment as keenly as the rest of you, but it seems like progress is starting to happen. Too bad that starts at 1-8.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Nov 20, 2008 5:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oh yea.....
[Joe Johnson] is a third option masquerading as a first option on a team with two key guys hurt.
Uhhh….What? Please explain this…I beg you.
It sounds like you are saying that Joe Johnson is a third option behind Horford and Smith…but I know that’s not the case. You must mean that he’d be a third option on most teams.
Okay then….
Replace Pierce with Johnson on the Celtics, who is the first option?
Put Johnson with the current Magic roster, who is the first option?
In looking at NBA teams, I see Joe Johnson taking second fiddle to the following:
LeBaby
D-Wade
Bosh
Vince Carter (maybe)
Carmelo
Kobe
Nash/Stoudamire
T-Mac when healthy
Dirk
Pierce
Iverson (maybe)
Al Jefferson (maybe)
Duncan/Parker
Yea, yea…sure I’m listing a lot of players (and perhaps could name more….it’s hard to count CP3, B-Dave and Deron Williams as first options at the point because their job is to create for other)….but third option? I’m offended for Joe Johnson.
He’s strong, he’s tall, he can handle, he can shoot, he can create.
So far this year, he’s 4th in the NBA in PPG, 13th in PER, 7th in Usage %…..I really don’t know how you can say those bad words about that guy.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on Nov 20, 2008 9:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Blind test
Last year, player one used 25.6 percent of his team’s possessions. He had a 48.9 effective field goal percentage and a true shooting percentage of 53.5. His assist rate was 25.5. He scored 19.2 points per 36 minutes. His PER was 16.1. His team was mediocre.
Player two used 21.8 percent of his team’s possessions. He had a 55% effective field goal percentage and a true shooting percentage of 60.5. His assist rate was 16.1. He scored 19.1 points per 36 minutes. His PER was 17.3. His team was mediocre.
Substantively, player one was a better passer, but player two was a much more efficient scorer. They scored the same amount, because player one used more possessions.
Who’s player one? Joe Johnson.
Who’s player two? None other than Mike Dunleavy.
Would you say Mike Dunleavy is a third option on a good team? I sure would.
Johnson’s off to a good start this year, but he has never been anywhere near this efficient in his career. The only season that comes close was his year in Phoenix, where he was … wait for it … a fourth option.
To answer your question, let’s go through the playoff teams.
Boston: Fourth option, maybe third (Big 3).
Cleveland: Second/third option. Him and Mo are close.
Dallas: Third option (Dirk, JHoward).
Denver: Third option (Melo, Billups).
Detroit: Fourth option (Sheed, Iverson, Rip).
Houston: Fourth/third option (Yao, McGrady, Artest)
LA Lakers: Fifth option (Kobe, Pau, Bynum, LO)
New Orleans: Third (CP3, West)
Orlando: Fourth (Dwight, Hedo, Shard Lewis)
Philly: Third (Brand, Dala)
Phoenix: Third (Nash, Amare)
San Antonio: Fourth (Big 3)
Toronto: Third (Bosh, Calderon)
Utah: Third (Deron, Boozer)
Us: Fourth (Big 3)
The thing is, because of all his non-scoring attributes (great passer, good defender, etc.), he’s an outstanding role player. He’s just not a star, no matter how good his 11-game season has been.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Nov 20, 2008 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's very Hollinger of you....
No offense….I just don’t think that stats can tell the whole story about how Johnson can create his own shot, along with his many other intangibles.
Maybe Joe Johnson is not a “superstar,” but he’s been an All-Star two years running, and I bet he makes it to Phoenix this year.
I suppose we can get into semantics about the definition of “option,” but if I’m looking for a guy to have the ball in his hands to create something with the clock ticking down and the game on the line, I’m taking Joe Johnson over Ray Allen, Mo Williams (except against the Wizards), Josh Howard (and maybe even the choking German), Rip Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace, Yao, Artest, Pau, Bynum, Odom, West, Super Jesus, Hedo, Lewis, Brand, Igoudala, Boozer, Calderon and Jamison (come to think of it, with Butler’s ball handling skills, maybe him too).
So that just leaves Pierce, LeBron, Melo, Billups, Iverson, T-Mac, Kobe, CP3, Manu/Parker/Duncan, Garnett, Nash, Amare, Bosh, Deron and Arenas……and with some of the bigs, it depends on how much time is on the clock.
So, in the end, I guess I’m defining “option” as who you look to for a big shot regardless of the point of the game.
Maybe this is an ‘agree to disagree’ because I won’t back down on my refusal to believe that Johnson is just a role player.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on Nov 21, 2008 2:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know what the response to this is going to be
But nonetheless, I must do this type of thing again.
What do Jameer Nelson, Travis Outlaw, Randy Foye, Al Thornton, Jamaal Tinsley and Ben Gordon have in common?
Better yet, what do Steve Blake, Leandro Barbosa, Stephon Marbury, Larry Hughes, Raymond Felton, Kyle Lowry, Louis Williams, Anthony Parker and Rashad McCants have in common?
The former group scored more points/48 in “clutch” situations (5-point margin with under 5 minutes to play) than Johnson last year. The latter group shot a higher percentage from the field in clutch situations than Johnson (with the caveat that all averaged at least half as many FGA/48 as Johnson). In case you’re wondering, Joe Johnson shot 29.7 percent from the field in clutch situations last year.
So yes, he can create his own shot. Too bad that shot is neither a good one or a one that he makes consistently.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Nov 21, 2008 2:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That was last year, though.
Looking at his career (or at least as far back as 82games.com goes), here’s his history of clutch FG% (with clutch eFG% in parentheses):
‘06/’07 – .404 (.439)
‘06/’05 – .417 (.465)
‘04/’05 – .258 (.306)
‘03/’04 – .354 (.385)
‘02/’03 – .397 (.443)
I’m inclined to say this shows Johnson to be a good clutch shooter who has some occasional down years, though it could also be interpreted as him being an inconsistent clutch shooter, but I’d certainly rather have him shooting than, say, Hughes or Blake.
Out of curiosity, what years were you using for the Johnson/Dunleavy comp?
by Jon L on Nov 21, 2008 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Last year
It was cherrypicking a bit, since Dunleavy had a career year, but I only used it to say they were close.
Johnson had an uncharacteristically bad shooting year in 07/08, but as you see there, he hasn’t exactly been lighting it up in prior years.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Nov 21, 2008 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Monday morning quarterbacking
In my post “Can Eddie learn from the past?”, I thought that the Starting lineup should be changed…. to give the Wizards a chance at keeping the game close in the 1st and 3rd quarters.
I thought that starting JaVale McGee and Nick Young (instead of Thomas and Stevenson) would provide the Offensive spark needed to keep the Wizards from continually trying to fight back from a large deficit after the 1st quarter.
Eddie started JaVale and Dee Brown last night – and look what happened. The Wizards were only down by 2 after the 1st Quarter… and only down 3 at the end of 3. This game was much closer – and the Wizards had a chance to win at the end.
We probably need more data to see a pattern, but I think my original premise is sound. If the Wizards can keep from falling behind when the reserves come in, they have a better chance win the game.
As a matter of fact, had Eddie shortened his rotation and benched Songaila, Pech, and Dixon – going with an 8 or 9 man rotation (Stevenson, Brown, Butler, Jamison, McGee, Young, Blatche, Thomas and MAYBE Dixon) – the Wizards may have been able to win that game.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Nov 20, 2008 11:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
really nice
really good stuff prada
by five by five on Nov 21, 2008 3:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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