Community Projection/Discussion: Juan Dixon

by Mike Prada on Oct 28, 2008 6:44 PM EDT in Player Analysis Comment 8 comments

Editor's Note: Thanks to Jake and Truth for their fantastic lead-ins to discussions about Caron Butler and Antonio Daniels. We press on with Juan Dixon.-PM

Last year (split with Detroit and Toronto):

53 games (36 in Toronto, 17 in Detroit)
5 points per game (14.2 points/36 minutes)
1.8 assists per game (5.2/36 minutes)
12.6 minutes per game (11.8 in Toronto, 14.4 in Detroit)
41.1 FG% (48 in Detroit), 41.7 3PT%, 80.8 FT%
46.9 eFG%, 48.8 TS% (both of those were way up in Detroit)
22.8% of possessions ended in a shot, drawn foul or turnover
23.3% of possessions ended in an assist, 16.7 ended with a turnover

I'm pretty sure everyone knows my lack of enthusiasm for the Wizards' decision to sign Juan Dixon and then keep him over DerMarr Johnson, so I'm not going to cry over spilled milk. Dixon's not completely useless, but he was never all that great to begin with and he's not going to change much.

That said, what do we want from Dixon? I actually thought he had a good preseason, albeit in very few games. He did a much better job than I expected handling the ball, turning it over only four times in three games to go along with 11 assists. Alas, he probably shot more long twos than ever, but there's nothing we can do about that.

The turnover thing is big because I'd rather see Dixon back up Antonio Daniels than DeShawn Stevenson. Based on the way Nick Young played in the preseason, it makes no sense for a guy like Dixon who does pretty much all the same things as Nick to take Nick's minutes. We've also, for better or worse, invested a lot more in Young than we did in Dixon. But the same cannot be said for Dee Brown, our other PG on the roster with Gilbert Arenas out. Brown didn't have a bad preseason, but as we mentioned the other day, he's really erratic with the ball and has a still-developing shot. Juan may shoot more than Dee, but he'll hold onto the ball more, meaning we waste fewer possessions.

I don't want to see Juan as anything more than the fourth guard with Arenas out, but based on this preseason, I'd rather give him the backup PG minutes than Dee. Developing Dee shouldn't be a priority; developing Nick should be. Have Juan and Dee compete, with the loser getting cut made inactive when Arenas returns. My guess is that Juan will win out.

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Yes and No

Have Juan and Dee compete, with the loser getting cut when Arenas returns. My guess is that Juan will win out.

I agree with the idea, but disagree with the final solution. Have them compete – YES – but for minutes. Whichever player is playing better should play. But in the end, if anyone gets cut, it should be Dixon. The Wizards already know what he’s capable of, and that Juan has already hit his ceiling.

Dee Brown has not hit his ceiling. He could become a valid backup Point Guard for this team, if he can cut down on his TO’s and develop that shot a little more.

Once Arenas returns, it won’t be as critical for Brown to produce; he’ll be the 3RD Point Guard…

If the Wizards can afford to pick up the 3rd year option on Pecherov, then they can certainly be just as patient with Dee Brown, another young player with talent and some upside.

Otherwise they’ll hamstring their 2009 Draft options – and they’ll HAVE to go after a PG in the Draft..

by Rook6980 on Oct 28, 2008 7:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Eh

Dee’s cheaper to buy out and it’s not like there’s much upside there anyway.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Oct 28, 2008 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Am I wrong?

They don’t have to cut anyone once Gil comes back. He’s counted among the 15. They’ll have to inactivate someone or D-league someone. But not cut them.

by MR on Oct 28, 2008 9:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs