Basketball Prospectus prediction: 3rd in SE, 40-42

Using their own formulas, Basketball Prospectus makes their Wizards record prediction.

40-42 seems about right, of course. However, I find myself being a bit more optimistic (like PM's 43-39), in hopes that the Wizards, again, might surprise us. However, that seems unlikely without Haywood AND Arenas. The East got much better, and we got worse. (Sure Dominic has improved his shot, Nick Young may evolve into a 15 PPG guard, and we picked up an athletic 7-footer who can fly, but most will agree our team is relatively worse with the loss of Haywood.)

Other notes of interest:

Their new formula for NBA projection (SCHOENE), predicts there is a 47.7% of the Wizards making the playoffs.

The formula can predict "what if" scenarios, like say, if Haywood weren't injured. With Haywood playing, the formula predicts us with a 44-38 record (thus Haywood only has us winning 4 more games). That is an interesting thought, and PM has gone into length explaining why we'll be just fine without Haywood.

Nick Young is predicted to take a dramatic step forward this season. The talent is there, and with Roger Mason gone and Arenas hurt, so is the opportunity. He is predicted to have 15 PPG.

I'm interested to see how the season plays out. There will be some ups and downs, but I love watching my Wizards.

over 3 years ago se7en 7 comments 0 recs |

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More Info on SCHOENE

Check out this article to get more detail on their new NBA Projection System.

It’s an interesting system, and a tad too complex for my blood. I’m no statistician.

by se7en on Oct 28, 2008 3:21 PM EDT reply actions

FYI

I said 40-42, not 43-39.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Oct 28, 2008 4:42 PM EDT reply actions

Haha

My fault, PM.

I looked at the post, and the first record I saw was LAST YEAR’S record.

I think this proves, once again, you’re a genius. You don’t even need BP’s formula. ;)

by se7en on Oct 28, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Other comps

I’ve been reading these, and was interested to see what some of the Wizards’ top comps would be. Blatche’s is apparently Darko Milicic, and I need a hug right about now.

by Jon L on Oct 28, 2008 4:53 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah

Comparing Taser to Viktor Khryapa is just cruel.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Oct 28, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Darko

I already freaked out Pistons fans because he was Amir Johnson’s #1 comp. What can I say? There aren’t a lot of 21-year-old 7-footers to go around. Be glad it wasn’t Kwame Brown.

by kpelton on Oct 28, 2008 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions