FanShot

Basketball Prospectus prediction: 3rd in SE, 40-42

Using their own formulas, Basketball Prospectus makes their Wizards record prediction. 40-42 seems about right, of course. However, I find myself being a bit more optimistic (like PM's 43-39), in hopes that the Wizards, again, might surprise us. However, that seems unlikely without Haywood AND Arenas. The East got much better, and we got worse. (Sure Dominic has improved his shot, Nick Young may evolve into a 15 PPG guard, and we picked up an athletic 7-footer who can fly, but most will agree our team is relatively worse with the loss of Haywood.) Other notes of interest: Their new formula for NBA projection (SCHOENE), predicts there is a 47.7% of the Wizards making the playoffs. The formula can predict "what if" scenarios, like say, if Haywood weren't injured. With Haywood playing, the formula predicts us with a 44-38 record (thus Haywood only has us winning 4 more games). That is an interesting thought, and PM has gone into length explaining why we'll be just fine without Haywood. Nick Young is predicted to take a dramatic step forward this season. The talent is there, and with Roger Mason gone and Arenas hurt, so is the opportunity. He is predicted to have 15 PPG. I'm interested to see how the season plays out. There will be some ups and downs, but I love watching my Wizards.

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