Random thoughts on the 2008-09 NBA season

by JakeTheSnake on Oct 28, 2008 5:00 PM EDT in The clubhouse Comment 17 comments

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Maybe I'm alone in this, but I am excited about this season. Sure, I'm not as thrilled about the Wizards' role in it as I was a month ago, but I'm still excited. The league is deeper than it's been in a long time and there's going to be a lot of compelling story lines this year as we start to see the start of the changing of the guard (I'll let you interpret that any way you want).

Anyways, here's a little bit of what I think we'll see in the upcoming season.

Even though there's going to be a lot of change this season, one thing that will stay the same this season is the teams playing in the NBA Finals. Book it.
Don't count out the Spurs. I know people are down on them because Manu Ginobili is hurt, they're getting older, and because they're just generally unlikable but they're not going to just go away that easily. They've still got a top-notch point guard in Tony Parker, some nice additions in Roger Mason Jr and Ian Mahinmi, and the best player of the post-Jordan era. They'll still be plenty good until Manu returns.
As much as I hate to say it, I don't see how LeBron doesn't win MVP this year. Guys like Kobe and Chris Paul are going to have spectacular years in their own right, but I really think this is when LeBron is going to start to hit his prime (which is really scary when you think about it) and I just don't think anybody will be able to match that kind of output. As long as the Cavs end up in the top 3 in the East, which I think they will, LeBron will take it this year.
With that said, if you're looking for a darkhorse MVP pick this year, go with Deron Williams. If Utah wins the West (not likely, but not impossible either) he could make a very compelling argument for MVP. Again, I wouldn't say his chances are great, but if you want to break away from the Big 3 that everyone keeps picking for MVP this year, that would be my choice.

Now with that out of the way, let's get to some award presentations:

MVP: LeBron James
Rookie: O.J. Mayo
Coach: Jim O'Brien
Sixth Man: James Posey
Most Improved: Amir Johnson
Defensive POY: Ron Artest

And here are my picks for who will make the playoffs, I already know that half of these are going to be completely wrong.

East	Rank	West
Boston	1	LA Lakers
Cleveland	2	New Orleans
Philadelphia	3	San Antonio
Orlando	4	Houston
Detroit	5	Utah
Toronto	6	Portland
Miami	7	Phoenix
Indiana	8	Dallas

Maybe I should stick to baseball predictions.

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Hold up

You have Indiana in the playoffs and not Washington?

by lj15 on Oct 28, 2008 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I know

It’s kind of crazy, but I think TJ Ford is the perfect fit for Indiana, and they finished ninth last season, so I think they can make it this year, crazy as it sounds.

At the end of the year, I feel confident in saying that they’ll be playing at a higher level than the Pacers, but I think they’ll be in too big of a hole to climb out of by then. But like I said, I know more than half of this is going to be wrong, so hopefully this is one of the places where I’m off.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by JakeTheSnake on Oct 28, 2008 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Treasonous

Jake, Jake, Jake…

Not predicting the Wizards make the playoffs? Acceptable. The realism and deep analysis is one of the things I appreciate on this blog.

But predicting that MIAMI will make the playoffs? You, sir, have crossed a line. We swore an oath, those of us who frequent this blog. We agreed to hate Miami like we have never hated any other team. Worse than LeTravel. Worse than Arvis. ~~Worse than~~ nearly as much as Kwame.

Have you no decency? Have you no pride? My team may be injured before the season starts. they may have to fight all year to avoid the lottery, just to exit in the first round again. But if I can’t count on this blog for (a) getting mad at John Hollinger’s predictions and (b) some good old-fashioned Miami haterade, then I am lost as a basketball fan.

Take it back!

by sierradave on Oct 28, 2008 5:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't worry, I still hate Miami

Dwyane Wade is still annoying (I forgot to go on an off-topic rant about this commercial), Shawn Marion’s whineyness will provide lots of great fodder, and Michael Beasley will have lots of things to make fun of in his rookie season. In all honesty, I think there’s about a 4% chance of the Heat winning 43 games, but I just get a bad feeling about that team. If I were looking at things rationally, I could just as easily justify them winning 28 games this season.

Plus, considering my established record of being a terrible predictor of things (other than the World Series) this is probably a good thing for the Wizards chances this season.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by JakeTheSnake on Oct 28, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The converse commercial I just saw was much more annoying

The one with him and his radio waking up with all these “doubters” coming on the air. Yes Dwayne we know people doubted you, but it’s a little over the top to say that there were people out there calling you a wasted draft pick. Give us a break drama queen!

"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck

by George Templeton on Oct 29, 2008 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there some way I can block myself from seeing Jake's posts?

OK, I won’t go that far. But I will disagree with your otherwise excellent analysis with:

• I LOVE the Spurs. I think all true lovers of the game should

• Drop Phili down a few spots and move everyone else up

• Posey, no. Just because he’s your personal 6MoY, doesn’t mean he will be the league’s

• MVP: Lebron? Paul? Tossup.

• Wiz def make the playoffs. Pacers out.

• I wish I could say the Lakers wouldn’t make the finals, but…

by MR on Oct 28, 2008 7:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just to clarify

I also love the Spurs, I just don’t think that most people do, which is a shame. Parker and Ginobili are exciting players to watch and I’ve always had this awkward appreciation for Duncan. If you try to emulate what he does on the court, you gain such a greater understanding of how awesome this guy is.

Regarding the 6MoY, I actually think he won’t be my personal pick but he’ll end being the league’s. I think they’ll look at his performance in the Finals, see that the Hornets are an elite team in the West, and assume that he’s making a major impact, even thought NO was elite before Posey. It’s kind of dumb, but it’s the same media that gave Dirk Nowitzki MVP for no other reason than his team won 67 games.

I get the feeling at the end of the season that I would pick Lamar Odom (assuming that he does end up staying as the 6th man) but Posey will end up being the league’s choice.

And if I can go off-topic, I have to say that I’m disappointed that no one’s brought up Chris Andersen yet based on that photo I posted.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by JakeTheSnake on Oct 28, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

After just watching Lamar Odom pass the ball to Sasha Vujacic, who was still wearing his warmups, I’d like to retract my statement about the Odom winning 6MoY

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by JakeTheSnake on Oct 28, 2008 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was going to say Odom too.

Don’t be embarrassed about loving the Spurs. Duncan is a class act. A great team to watch, if you like team sports.

by MR on Oct 29, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

San Antonio was positively unboring

All the way up until the end of last season, when their offense fell apart once Manu got hurt. That offense without him was so bad on the eyes.

I worry the same’s going to happen this year with Manu out. This may be tough to admit, but Manu’s probably my favorite non-Wizard in the league.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Oct 29, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jake is right

The Celtics and the Lakers will play in the Finals (but this time the Lakers will win). And Miami is going to make the playoffs. What really sucks is that as fun as their putridity was last year, they turned it into Michael Freakin’ Beasley and even worse the “Damn” Dwayne Wade is back not the injured one. You know if our team collapsed like that they would never get that lucky.
Where I disagree is the the Spurs. They are old, beat up and their title window is shut. Hooray!
LeTravel as MVP is dead on, but the coach of the year will be Nate McMillen when Portland wins 50-some and finishes 5th in the West. And MFB from Miami will be the rookie of the year.

"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck

by George Templeton on Oct 28, 2008 9:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We did collapse

You know if our team collapsed like that they would never get that lucky.

Our team did collapse like that – and we got Kwame Brown.

by Rook6980 on Oct 28, 2008 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True, but the Wiz were supposed to be bad that year

What I am saying is that the Wiz have talent. But if the proverbial safe gets dropped on the team and it collapses to a bad record, the Wizards won’t get someone that could put them over the top if everyone comes back healthy the way the Spurs got lucky getting Tim Duncan, and the Heat get MFB.

"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck

by George Templeton on Oct 29, 2008 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My opinion-

East – Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, Toronto, Philly, Miami, Washington
West – LA, NO, Houston, Utah, San Antonio, Phoenix, Portland, Dallas

I think Boston still takes it. (I will never pick Kobe to win anything) KG doesn’t let this team become complacent just because they won last season.

Lebron MVP, Beasley ROY.

I should be banned from this blog – Miami is my second favorite team in the league. I just really enjoy watching Wade play. As to whether they make the playoffs – all depends on Wade staying healthy which unfortunately is a big if given recent history.

by ooba on Oct 28, 2008 9:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Anyone that watched D-Wade play in the Olympics knows he’s B A C K ! ! !

We can only hope that Beasley takes some time to acclimate to the NBA game, and that the hodge-podge supporting cast (no PG, no Center) keeps the Heat from going very far. – because if Beasley takes off, and those “other guys” do what those “other guys” on the Celtics did last year – the Heat could win the SouthEast.

I’m leaning the other way… Miami barely makes the Playoffs , this year.

by Rook6980 on Oct 28, 2008 10:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

One thing

I am not buying Miami. Wade is a terrific player. But Beasley is a rookie, and Marion isn’t what he thinks he is (a star) — he’s a very good role player who is unwilling to play a role.

The list of what they do not have is significant. A point guard (sure, Wade can handle the ball, but that means he uses more energy he could be using to score and defend) and a center (I am not afraid of driving the lane if I’m going to be met by Mark Blount). Rebounding.

I’m gonna need to see something from the Heat before I consider them a playoff team.

"Now, obviously individual production does not unilaterally equal better team production, but there's a high level of causation."

by Vanilla Gorilla on Oct 28, 2008 11:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs