Caron Butler: Community Projection/Discussion

by Kyle Weidie on Oct 27, 2008 4:29 PM EDT in Player Analysis

The Pradamaster's Note: We're going to discuss and predict each individual player's production this year. This includes simpleton stats (aka per-game numbers) and the advanced ones (regular readers know these). Feel free to predict as many or as few categories as you like.

But even though I'm a big advanced stats guy, we all know hoops is more than just numbers. So, in addition to predicting numbers, use this space to discuss what you expect qualitatively from everyone this year. What do they need to do to improve? What do you want to see from them? How likely do you think that happens? What does each player need to do to help this team overachieve?

The list so far: Gilbert Arenas, Andray Blatche, and Dee Brown.

via flickr/wizardsdotcom

07-08 Per Game Numbers (via Basketball-Reference.com):

Points: 20.3
Rebounds: 6.7
Assists: 4.9
Steals: 2.2
3PM: 66
FG%: .466
FT%: .901
PER: 20.7

Games: 58 - 39.9 minutes per (4th in the NBA)

As far as those per game numbers.....pretty damn awesome if you ask me. I'll be more than content if all stay relatively the same in 08-09 (well, with the exception of FG% -- I'll cover that in a sec), but with Tuff Juice appearing in more than 58 games.

Remember, before last season, our friend John Hollinger put Butler on his 'All-Decline Team' -- so much for that. What say you this year John Hollinger? This season, Hollinger says, "one has to think he'll match his output of a year ago at the very least," and predicts only a 1.21 drop-off in PER to 19.38 (Hollinger has last year's PER for Caron at 20.59 on ESPN.com).

So durability for Butler is becoming a question......we all want less minutes per game and more games, right? For the Wizards to be in the mid-range playoff seed discussion, Hollinger thinks that Caron needs to be on the court for "3,000 minutes or so" (he played 2,314 total minutes last year - 18 NBA players played 3,000+ minutes last season).

However, if Butler's average time on the court goes down a full three minutes to 36.9, Caron will have to appear in 81 games to get close to 3,000. Then you gotta think....Butler is the best player on the Wizards, does Eddie Jordan have any choice but to keep Butler among the NBA's top 20 in minutes per game? (The 20th ranked player averaged 37.7 mpg last season.) So realistically, our best hope is that Caron Butler gets an extra 120 seconds of rest each game.....Eddie Jordan better use that time wisely (at the end or beginning or quarters).

Caron Butler Shot Details (82games.com):

3PT Shots: 19%
2PT Jumpers: 53%
Inside Shots: 26%
And Ones: 22
Foul: 9%

Minutes are minutes.....they'll just have to play themselves out on a game-by-game basis. What I'm really concerned about is the feeling I get about Butler settling for jumpers too much. Don't get me wrong, Caron's got a killer mid-range game and if other teams are going to give him the opportunity, make them pay.....but please don't sacrifice offensive movement in doing so, especially early in the possession.

The numbers above reflect from where a percentage of Butler's total shots come (don't ask me about the missing 2%....the 82games people round their percentages), the number of And 1 opportunities (not conversions), and the percentage of fouls drawn on all FG attempts. Three point attempts can stay the same, but I'd like to see Butler's inside shot attempts climb to at least 30%....which would hopefully get his FG% up past .475.

But that 9% of FG attempts drawing fouls stat.....we need the guy who was 6th in the league in FT% to rank higher than 146th in the NBA in this category (or technically, tied for 133rd with 24 other dudes who are at 9%).

Paul Pierce takes 33% of his shots from 3-point land and 29% from inside (37% on 2-point jumpers), yet draws fouls 16% of the time. Manu Ginobili and Kevin Durant each took the same percentage of inside shots as Butler, yet drew fouls 13% and 12% of the time respectively. Is at least a 4% increase of fouls drawn to 13% too much to ask for Butler? I think not.

Now what say you?

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Comments

Good summary

I agree with pretty much everything there. For his playing time, I think it will have to do less with what he does and more with the reserves. From what I see, SF is the only position with problematic bench players (let’s pretend some combination of Blatche/Songaila/McGee? can cover the 4 and 5).

According to 82games.com, only one lineup last year had a positive +/- last year without Butler on the floor. That lineup was Mason-Young-Jamison-Blatche-Songaila with a +33, but looking at this year, there are some major problems with it for this year.

First, Mason’s obviously not here anymore. Brown is a downgrade, but once Arenas comes back that position will be fine. Second, that lineup only played 56 minutes last year, so it’s a relatively small smaple. Third, it assumes that Blatche doesn’t continue to play his way to the bench the way he has this preseason. Fourth, I think EJ should also try to reduce Jamison’s minutes, since he just signed a big contract and they don’t want him worn out by the end of it, so hopefully he won’t see a ton of time at the 3 in Butler’s absence.

In essence, if Butler is going to play fewer, more productive minutes, I think it comes down to McGuire and Young. If McGuire does well, which for him I think means providing energy, rebounding and some defense for the second unit, and if Young can pick up some of the scoring slack, then hopefully Butler can play less and stay healthier throughout the season.

As far as his drawing fouls, Butler’s 28, so it would take a semi-dramatic shifting of his game at this point, but I’m also hopeful it can happen.

Man, there has to be a more concise way to say what I just did.

by Jon L on Oct 27, 2008 6:22 PM EDT reply actions

Butler has grown each year...

It would be nice to see him attack the basket and draw fouls more. With Gilbert down from the start of the season and Butler very conscious of his role as captain and go-to guy, who is to say he won’t crank the whole thing up a notch. I would love to see 22-7-5 from Caron… We shall find out soon enough.

by khrabb on Oct 28, 2008 12:31 PM EDT reply actions

Steppin' up, AND sittin' down

Yeah- love to see those type of numbers from Caron this year – but in fewer minutes…. say 33-35 per night?

by Rook6980 on Oct 28, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

yep higher production... fewer minutes

Agree completely, Rook… I just do not know if MacGuire can find enough offense to justify up to 15 minutes of PT as Caron’s primary back up, which is why I suppose I was briefly on the DerMarr bandwagon… Sliding AJ over to the three doesn’t solve the problem either, as his minutes should also be held in the same range… What this says, I guess, is that it is really on Dray’s shoulders to give the team 20-25 minutes of solid basketball in relief of both men, with the kind of numbers that were talked about for him (say 12-8 and 2 blocks) in response to the earlier post.

by khrabb on Oct 28, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Nah - don't see it.

As far as his drawing fouls, Butler’s 28, so it would take a semi-dramatic shifting of his game at this point, but I’m also hopeful it can happen.

Well, he was 27 last year, and he dramatically improved his 3-point shot.

I don’t buy into the whole “old dog” argument …. especially when it comes to NBA players.

by Rook6980 on Oct 28, 2008 1:51 PM EDT reply actions

Well

It’s much easier to improve your shot than it is to draw more fouls.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Oct 28, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I disagree

Butler only needs to drive more, to draw more fouls… Not exactly a semi-dramatic shifting of his game, since he has shown that it is already part of his game. Other than Arenas, Butler is the only one on the roster that has shown the ability to consistently drive to the rim, and finish or draw a foul. (Young can do it, but is not consistent…. Stevenson and McGuire can drive, but can’t finish or draw a foul…. Daniels does it once a game, and ends up face planted on the floor…. Pecherov doesn’t know what the word “drive” means… )

I would just like to see him get back to the “balanced” game he showed in the previous 2 years. Last year he relied on his outside shot too much; as evidenced by the fact that he shot around 70 fewer Free Throws than in 04-05, 05-06 and 06-07.

And it’s not like he can’t do both… in 05-06 he shot 120 3-pointers, and still went to the line for 332 Free Throw attempts.

by Rook6980 on Oct 28, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Driving is dependant on the defense

Your teammates spacing the floor, etc. Butler can get as aggressive as he wants, but if the defense is clogging the lane, there isn’t much he can do.

One can improve their shooting simply by working on their shooting form.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Oct 28, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Come on

You gotta admit that Caron settled for jumpers too many times last year……

Teams left Butler alone at the 3-point line, and played aggressive defense in the mid-range on him, forcing him to pass… If the Wizards were not hitting their outside shots, they lost.

Butler CAN force the action. He has that ability. His ball handling is VERY good for a 3, and he’s extremely strong around the basket.

Two years ago, we used to see Caron face up his man on the wing, pump fake and go around him to the hole. Last year, we saw more of Caron pump fake, then go up for the jumper.

by Rook6980 on Oct 28, 2008 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions