Community Projection/Discussion: Dee Brown

Editor's Note: For the next eight days, we're going to discuss and predict each individual player's production this year.  This includes simpleton stats (aka per-game numbers) and the advanced ones (regular readers know these).  Feel free to predict as many or as few categories as you like. 

But even though I'm a big advanced stats guy, we all know hoops is more than just numbers.  So, in addition to predicting numbers, use this space to discuss what you expect qualitatively from everyone this year.  What do they need to do to improve?  What do you want to see from them?  How likely do you think that happens?  What does each player need to do to help this team overachieve?

So far, we've done Gilbert Arenas and Andray Blatche.  Our "marquee" free agent acquisition is next.

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2006/07 season (with Utah):

  • 1.9 points per game/7.5 per 36 minutes
  • 1.7 assists per game/6.6 per 36
  • 32.7 FG%, 21.4 3PT%, 64.9 FT%
  • 35.7 eFG%, 41.1 TS%
  • 8.6 PER
  • 26.2 Assist percentage
  • 21.3 turnover percentage
  • 14.5% of possessions ended with a shot, turnover or foul drawn

Ideally, Dee Brown turns into the type of backup point guard Antonio Daniels has been since 2005.  That's not going to happen, because Dee can't finish at the rim like AD can.  But despite Dee's poor numbers in Utah, I think he could be moderately successful here. 

To improve, Dee needs to fix two problems.  The first is his shooting, which was horrid in Utah.  I'm confident he can improve in that area here because we have a history of turning poor shooters into good ones, like we did with DeShawn Stevenson.  Dee's been hitting a decent clip of his shots here, and even if he didn't, he wouldn't be shooting too much, so it's not like his low efficiency is costing us too many possessions. 

The far bigger problem is his propensity to turn the ball over.  The major reason our offense has been successful these last few years is because we consistently rank near the top of the league in turnover percentage.  AD is routinely awesome in this regard, as is a healthy Gilbert Arenas.  Brown, though, is erratic with the ball even as he pushes it.  During the preseason, he's committed 3.5 turnovers a game in just 23.3 minutes, which averages out to over seven turnovers per 48 minutes.  It's nice that he pushes the ball, but it means nothing if he loses it.  Utah fans used to love his "energy," but I don't care if he keeps turning it over like this.

The good news is that Dee's pesky defensively, which should help us out against speedy point guards like Tony Parker.  Dee's not amazing defensively because he's small, but he'll make you work up the court, which robs you of some energy.  That's something AD can't provide.

Ultimately, I don't expect too much from Dee this season.  That turnover rate is crazy high, and for him to really be a good backup point guard, it needs to go way, way down.

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