Community Projection/Discussion: Dee Brown
Editor's Note: For the next eight days, we're going to discuss and predict each individual player's production this year. This includes simpleton stats (aka per-game numbers) and the advanced ones (regular readers know these). Feel free to predict as many or as few categories as you like.
But even though I'm a big advanced stats guy, we all know hoops is more than just numbers. So, in addition to predicting numbers, use this space to discuss what you expect qualitatively from everyone this year. What do they need to do to improve? What do you want to see from them? How likely do you think that happens? What does each player need to do to help this team overachieve?
So far, we've done Gilbert Arenas and Andray Blatche. Our "marquee" free agent acquisition is next.
- 1.9 points per game/7.5 per 36 minutes
- 1.7 assists per game/6.6 per 36
- 32.7 FG%, 21.4 3PT%, 64.9 FT%
- 35.7 eFG%, 41.1 TS%
- 8.6 PER
- 26.2 Assist percentage
- 21.3 turnover percentage
- 14.5% of possessions ended with a shot, turnover or foul drawn
Ideally, Dee Brown turns into the type of backup point guard Antonio Daniels has been since 2005. That's not going to happen, because Dee can't finish at the rim like AD can. But despite Dee's poor numbers in Utah, I think he could be moderately successful here.
To improve, Dee needs to fix two problems. The first is his shooting, which was horrid in Utah. I'm confident he can improve in that area here because we have a history of turning poor shooters into good ones, like we did with DeShawn Stevenson. Dee's been hitting a decent clip of his shots here, and even if he didn't, he wouldn't be shooting too much, so it's not like his low efficiency is costing us too many possessions.
The far bigger problem is his propensity to turn the ball over. The major reason our offense has been successful these last few years is because we consistently rank near the top of the league in turnover percentage. AD is routinely awesome in this regard, as is a healthy Gilbert Arenas. Brown, though, is erratic with the ball even as he pushes it. During the preseason, he's committed 3.5 turnovers a game in just 23.3 minutes, which averages out to over seven turnovers per 48 minutes. It's nice that he pushes the ball, but it means nothing if he loses it. Utah fans used to love his "energy," but I don't care if he keeps turning it over like this.
The good news is that Dee's pesky defensively, which should help us out against speedy point guards like Tony Parker. Dee's not amazing defensively because he's small, but he'll make you work up the court, which robs you of some energy. That's something AD can't provide.
Ultimately, I don't expect too much from Dee this season. That turnover rate is crazy high, and for him to really be a good backup point guard, it needs to go way, way down.
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4 comments
Comments
Basically what you said
It seems like a whole lot of people have ripped on his shooting, and I just don’t see how that will be a major issue (unless Antonio Daniels goes down). He doesn’t take a lot of shots anyway, so even if his FG% is low, it’s not a big deal because he’s not the one that we’re expecting to take the scoring load with Gilbert out.
As long as he gets that turnover rate down, he should be fine. He won’t help us win any games, but I don’t think he’ll lose any either.
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by JakeTheSnake on Oct 24, 2008 3:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
On the other hand, if Dee Brown can continue to improve his shot, it will be nice to have a PG (other than Arenas) that can come in and make the opponent pay for slacking off on him. Although if he’s teamed with Young in the back court, the Wiz may not need much scoring from Dee.
I like his defense so far…. and agree he could finally be the answer to the small quick Point Guards that have always given the Wizards fits.
I love the fact that he pushes the ball. One thing that not many people remark about is that by pushing the ball, you give that Princeton Offense 3 or 4 more seconds to work. By walking the ball up the court, they’re wasting time, and allowing the Defense to get set. By pushing the pace, it keeps the Defense from getting set, and will lead to more baskets early in the clock – and when that doesn’t happen, they’re still preserving those extra seconds for one more cut, or one more screen, running the Princeton.
The good thing about Turn Over prone Point Guards is that they usually get much better, the more years they’re in the League.
Brown has a very good opportunity to be the back up Point Guard for years to come, if he continues to improve. Antonio Daniels will most likely be gone next year, so Dee needs to show he can take over those duties.
by Rook6980 on Oct 24, 2008 5:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't mind the low field goal % either...
… but I cannot shake the vision of the two FTs Dee clanked in the Berlin game…not a good stroke… PG should hit 80% of FT minimum and he was at 25% last I looked. No question he is quick and no question Antonio Daniels is not getting any younger, but remember Antonio was a fourth pick overall his draft year and Dee was a deep second rounder.
by khrabb on Oct 24, 2008 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Illinois' Prince
Will be a nice change of pace option for Eddie Jordan.
I think he’ll average at least 1.7 steals, 2.4 assists, and 3.1 points.
If his FG% is above 38%, I’ll call it a success and it’s my hopes that Brown keeps his turnover % under 18.6.
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by Truth About It on Oct 25, 2008 1:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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