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Community Projection/Discussion: Andray Blatche

Editor's Note: For the next eight days, we're going to discuss and predict each individual player's production this year.  This includes simpleton stats (aka per-game numbers) and the advanced ones (regular readers know these).  Feel free to predict as many or as few categories as you like. 

But even though I'm a big advanced stats guy, we all know hoops is more than just numbers.  So, in addition to predicting numbers, use this space to discuss what you expect qualitatively from everyone this year.  What do they need to do to improve?  What do you want to see from them?  How likely do you think that happens?  What does each player need to do to help this team overachieve?

We did Gilbert Arenas yesterday.  Now, it's Andray Blatche's turn.

Ph2007080302113_medium

2008 BF Player Evaluation.

Last year:

  • 20.4 minutes per game in 82 games, with 15 starts
  • 7.5 points per game, 13.3 pts/36 minutes
  • 5.2 rebounds per game, 9.1/36
  • 1.1 assists, 1.4 turnovers per game
  • 47.4 FG%, 23.1 3PT%, 69.5 FT%
  • 47.7 eFG%, 51.2 TS%
  • 11.5 shot attempts per 36 minutes
  • 15.5 PER
  • 14.9% of available rebounds grabbed
  • 15.6% of possessions used that ended in a turnover (a major improvement from 06/07, believe it or not)
  • 5.5 personal fouls per 36 minutes
  • 1.4 blocks per game, 2.5/36 minutes
  • 19.7% usage rate (percentage of possessions ended in a shot, foul drawn or turnover while in the game)
  • -5.67 adjusted plus/minus
  • 34.2 eFG% on outside shots, 52.3 FG% on "close" attempts

I'm heading out the door, but I'll have more later.  For now, begin the discussion.

Update (6:58 p.m.):

Before we start, we really must remember that, in many ways, Andray Blatche took a major step forward last year.  Yes, he still has a long way to go, and yes, he has looked very bad this preseason.  But looking at last year, he wasn't the most efficient shooter, but he cut his turnover rate way down, shot a decent percentage from the field (though it should be better and he needs to draw more fouls) and improved a bit defensively.  I never would have thought he could play center before he proved it last year.  We also has to remember that he's only 22 and has four years left on a very, very cheap contract.  If he doesn't improve one bit this year, he is still a bargain for the amount we're paying for him.

Still, a lot of these numbers seem a bit hollow.  If you look at PER, you'd think Blatche is on the way to stardom, but he wasn't a very efficient shooter, he still turns the ball over too much and he fouls like crazy.  Defensively, he still was out of position too much, though he was an improvement on that end from the 2006/07 Etan Thomas.  And just as it seemed he started to get how to handle himself, he fell out of the rotation (deservedly) and gets caught with reckless driving this summer.

In terms of measurables, I want to see Blatche cut his foul rate, obviously.  He needs to contine improving his turnover rate, which is still mediocre.  His rebounding fell off a bit from his first two years, which is pretty concerning, and I hope it comes back to that level.  I also want to see him shoot better around the basket, which is why I included those stats in the first place.

Qualitatively, though, my biggest problem with 'Dray is that he doesn't make quick moves.  He's tentative and awkward, almost like Chris Webber when he used to post up.  'Dray's never going to develop Webber's passing and shooting ability, so he needs to become stronger and more able to make quick moves.  Otherwise, all he's got as far as an offensvie repitrore is his low-percentage mid-range and hook shots.  I also think he needs to stop talking about being serious and start talking about being consistent and confident.  He needs to focus on playing a role rather than trying to be both an inside guy and a point guard.  Stay on the block!

I'd honestly be happy if he matched his offensive numbers from last year, so long as it includes a jump in minutes, a cut in his foul rate, improved defensive numbers and better shooting around the basket.  Realistically, only the first and third options are to be expected.  He's still not going to be a strong finisher than dunks in your face, but if he can improve his shot selection from the perimeter, he'll become more efficient.

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Foul Rate, Foul Rate, FOUL RATE!!!

In a perfect world, I’d like Blatche to bump his foul rate down from 5.5 to 4.0….which would still put him tied for second worst on the team. Reasonable expectation? Judging from the preseason, I’m not so sure.

Andray has been abundant with his use of the words ‘serious’ and ‘maturity’ leading up to next Tuesday’s opener….but I wish the guy would make ‘consistent effort’ more apart of his vocabulary….wait a minute, talk is cheap….“apart of his play” is more like it.

In the preseason, at times he’s looked ready to rumble…but more than not, the guy has appeared listless.

If he gets his sh— together, AB can average 12.3 points, 8.6 boards, and 2.3 blocks per game this year and that would be a HUGE help.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Oct 23, 2008 1:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Absolutely

the fouls are the biggest on-court thing that needs improvement. And especially when you pair that with the turnover rate, hopefully he can make some smarter decisions this year. Without meaning this to be a cheap shot, I hope he makes smarter off-court decisions as well.

by Jon L on Oct 23, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh please

The guy hasn’t been shot under mysterious circumstances in 3 years. He hasn’t been arrested for soliciting a prostitute in over a year. He hasn’t been arrested for reckless driving on a thrice-suspended license in months. Can’t you see him maturing?

A guy makes a couple dozen simple little bad off-court decisions and you jump all over him.

by MR on Oct 23, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A tantalizing talent still

A 12pt -9reb-2.3 block season will forgive a lot… Blatche and the Bulls’ Ty Thomas are in a very similar place I think… Both have shown spurts of pretty awesome play, both have been taken to the woodshed about their maturity and consistency of effort, and both are now keys to their teams’ success this season. Whatever else, it will be interesting to watch what happens.

by khrabb on Oct 23, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My sarcasm detector just went through the roof!

Too funny…I like it.

My sarcasm detector just went through the roof!

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Oct 23, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is 12/8/2 realistic for Blatche?

“Huge” is the operative word for those stats, especially coming off the bench. Can he contribute at that level this year?

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Oct 24, 2008 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Upset?

Why is he so upset. He looks sad. Dribble off my foot. Sad. It was the stupid balls fault!

by the white prez on Oct 23, 2008 9:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ha I didn’t even notice the photo that was at the top. Great photo. Tells the story of Blatche.

by the white prez on Oct 23, 2008 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The caption should say....

“Damn, that prostitute/undercover cop wasn’t even good looking.”

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Oct 23, 2008 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Case in point

Blatche needs to be more aggressive around the basket; both Offensively and Defensively.

One thing I’ve noticed, especially since McGee joined the team; is that Blatche is not as “athletic” as I first believed. He doesn’t jump much. Really. Seriously. Watch him play; he barely gets off the ground. Perhaps that’s why we see so many weak shots, finger rolls, etc… and not many dunks. Not sure if there’s something wrong…. or if he’s aware of it… He runs fine. Seems to have quickness, for a big guy…. But no hops.

Case in point, the break away in the Spurs game…. I was expecting to see him sky, and throw it down…. instead, we get a weak dribble, half a hop, and a finger roll layup.

by Rook6980 on Oct 23, 2008 9:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't want to jump in the 'questioning his athleticism' pool...

but you’re right…there’s something to be said about that guy looking so mechanical.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Oct 23, 2008 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

His body type reminds me a lot of Chris Webber

Webber was never an athletic freak and he was pretty successful. Of course, Webber was also an outstanding passer and a good jump shooter.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Oct 23, 2008 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good observation

I have noticed the same thing. If he has a vertical, he certainly hasn’t shown it off yet. Given his height, he doesn’t need it but he better improve that footwork. I wish some of Tim Duncan’s fundamentals would rub off on him…

I'm no commie, but the Reds shall be the best again!

by RedHopeful on Oct 24, 2008 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Simple expectations

We’ll probably see more up and down play, but the ups will be better and a little more often. I think something in the 12 point, 7 rebound range sounds about right.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by JakeTheSnake on Oct 23, 2008 10:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No hops

is right. In Andray’s case, it means he can use his ball handling skills and sweet moves to look good going to the hoop but finshing is another matter. A simple Duncanesque 10 footer off the glass, or any solid go-to move would open things up for him a lot because right now, I’d let him shoot jumpers all day.

by mlarroca on Oct 24, 2008 3:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

His preseason has hurt my confidence in him.

Hoping for small improvements on last season. Improvements on the defensive end would be ideal.

by NBR on Oct 24, 2008 3:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

based on what i've seen, blatche may go backwards this year

with mcgee at the backup center spot, we’ll almost certainly see blatche on the wing trying to dribble his way to the hoop from 20 feet away, shooting jumpers, and making ill-advised passes. this will quickly get him benched.

(stop dribbling so much andray. stop dribbling up the court too damn it. when will that stop?!?!)

after 3 seasons, blatche’s offensive game still needs a TON of work. i don’t see a successful foundation there. i also don’t see him being able to work that out on the court this year. to me, the best hope for him is that he finally gets what his strengths are and what kind of game he needs to develop, as being significantly different from and vastly more efficient than the game he currently displays on the court.

mcgee might have already passed blatche on the learning curve simply because mcgee is clearly already focusing on playing inside around the basket – abandoning his college game of emulating nick fazekas (a dirk clone) at nevada. mcgee apparently is smart enough to know what nba caliber strengths he has and he’s going to play to them. blatche still thinks his main strength is dribbling around or through people on the way to the hoop, or being a playmaker on the wing.

as i think about it, prada’s right, chris webber is a fairly good model for what blatche could try to be. (per webber’s strengths, he also had some of the best hands EVER for a big man.) the problem is, webber was supremely confident, ambitious, and aggressive. blatche is not. also, webber was extremely bright, blatche clearly is not.

KG is another potential model for blatche. but someone, to me, that blatche looks like he’s currently trying to be on offense, tracy mcgrady blatche is not, and never will be.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Oct 24, 2008 9:37 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Weber

Just a note – Chris Weber, when he was a young player for the Wizards, also used to try dribbling up court like a guard… and in traffic……. with the same results as Blatche…. but after a couple of years, he stopped…

Perhaps it’s an age thing… that Blatche will grow out of.

by Rook6980 on Oct 24, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's funny...

Blatche looked good in Summer League, Young did not.

…and now the roles have reversed.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Oct 24, 2008 11:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's why

I wouldn’t put too much faith in anything just yet. It’s a long season and it hasn’t even started yet.

by MR on Oct 24, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True.....

We observe and analyze things so much that jumping the gun is easy to do.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Oct 24, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are we still talking

about Blatche replacing Jameson?

by MR on Oct 24, 2008 9:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yea, at this point...

I wouldn’t replace a bottle of Irish Whiskey with Blatche either.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Truth About It on Oct 26, 2008 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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