Competition Discussion: Indiana Pacers
The season is still a few weeks away, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little). We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else. In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next month or so. We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z. Today's team: Indiana.
Last year's record: 36-46
In: T.J. Ford, Roy Hibbert, Jarret Jack, Brandon Rush, Rasho Nesterovic, Eddie Jones
Out: Jermaine O'Neal, Kareem Rush, Flip Murray, Shawne Williams, Ike Diogu, David Harrison, Jamaal Tinsley (any day now)
Projected starting lineup: T.J. Ford, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, Rasho Nesterovic (I'm reaching, I honestly don't know)
Key themes:
- Can a malcontent in Toronto be the orchestrator of Jim O'Brien's up-tempo offense?
- What must Danny Granger do to take the next step?
- Are they going to miss Jermaine O'Neal in any way?
- Can Mike Dunleavy possibly be as good as he was last year?
- Will Jamaal Tinsley ever get traded?
- Will the guys acquired on draft day (Hibbert, Jack, Rush, Nesterovic, etc) make up for trading away Jerryd Bayless?
- Who scores in the paint?
Indiana's one of those teams I've moved up in recent days in the wake of all of our injuries. I already felt they were underrated for this year, mostly because Jim O'Brien is a great coach and T.J. Ford has this funny way of leading his teams to the playoffs in his first year with them (see 03/04 Bucks, 06/07 Raptors). Also, considering how much his play had declined in recent years, Toronto got a king's ransom for Jermaine O'Neal, parlaying him into a very good player (Ford), 10 million dollars in expiring contracts (Nesterovic, who was actually pretty good last year, and Maceo Baston) and a promising young guy in Roy Hibbert. I hesitate to say they "won" the deal, but they got a lot more than they probably should have.
This is a team tailor-made for Ford's style. There are no post-up bigs to steal from his surprisingly-effective chucking, a coach who loves playing fast and encourages quick shots, and two wings who play just about the same way. Plus, with O'Brien and several decent interior defenders (Jeff Foster, Nesterovic, potentially Hibbert), they'll play decent enough defense. There's also a ton of depth in Foster, Jack, Rush, Hibbert, Marquis Daniels and Travis Diener behind the starters.
The only thing I worry about that could derail modest success is the shooting guard position. Last year, completely out of nowhere, Mike Dunleavy had an awesome year, but he did that playing small forward most of the time. Unless Rush or Daniels emerges, Dunleavy may have to play a lot of shooting guard, where he'll get abused defensively and see that his perimeter skills become more ordinary. If he has to play a lot at the 2, Dunleavy's production is going to fall.
But improvement from Granger and the addition of Ford should make up for anything Dunleavy loses. Indiana was a 36-win team a year ago without Jermaine O'Neal for much of the itme and they got better by adding Ford. That makes them a low-end playoff team, particularly now that we're struggling with so many injuries.
Prediction: 40-42, 3rd in Central, seventh in East (was eighth until Haywood's injury)
Previously (predictions are me/Jake/Truth)...
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8 comments
Comments
39-43
I was originally going to peg them higher, but I’ve got them finishing 8th in the East, and I haven’t done the work with the spreadsheets to make sure that the records even out, so right now I’m slotting them here.
Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.
by JakeTheSnake on Oct 15, 2008 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Alrighty
I’ve done the calculations and I’ve got everything sorted out. Indiana’s record stayed the same, but some of the other teams that we’ve looked at have changed by a couple of wins.
I know beforehand that the predictions will be terrible, but at least they’re mathematically possible now.
Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.
by JakeTheSnake on Oct 16, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which ones
So I can accurately fill in answers…
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Oct 16, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I already changed the records to reflect the changes in this post
All the old posts still have the old records, but the post for this CD is up to date.
But for the sake of record keeping:
Atlanta has one more win
Charlotte has one less win
Chicago has one less win
Cleveland has one more win
Dallas has four less wins
Golden State has one less win
Houston has two less wins
Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.
by JakeTheSnake on Oct 16, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Will T.J. Ford stay healthy
That is always the question with him and the key to Indiana’s season. I like T.J. Ford so I hope so.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Oct 16, 2008 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree Prada
The Pacers snuck up on some teams last year, and I think they’ll continue to do the same this year.
Before reading this, I had them going 40-42 as well……..so I’ll stick with the same prediction as Prada.
Ford will get this team going, but don’t underestimate the presence of Jarret Jack. I think that kind of PG depth will be good for some wins.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on Oct 16, 2008 10:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah
they’re dangerous. i hope brandon rush pans out. i was hoping the wiz would land him.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Oct 16, 2008 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mine
I had Indiana ( 40 42 ) 4th in Central, 8th in Eastern Conference (tie with Miami) , with Miami making the playoffs in a tie-breaker…
I have been able to watch some Indiana pre-season games. My impressions:
Roy Hibbert will help them THIS year. In his first game, he looked like a raw Rookie… he did score on some nice post moves; but he was foul prone and turned the ball over a lot. The box score says 2, but it was more than that.
His second game, against the Chicago Bulls, he scored 9 on a variety of post moves and put-backs, rebounded extremely well, and had some nice passes from the high post for assists. Fouls and turn overs were again a problem.
The third game, against Memphis, in 22 minutes he had 17 points, scoring both inside and from 12 feet out on some jumpers. He rebounded well with 9 (a supposed weakness in College); and had 3 blocks – while playing primarily against Marc Gasol. He was, without a doubt, the better player in that matchup. He still picked up a couple of unnecessary fouls.
In the latest game against Dallas, he had 15 points in 21 minutes… 5 rebounds, 2 blocks and 2 assists… some really pretty bounce passes to cutters from the high post.. But again, showed a propensity to foul with 5, and turned the ball over too much (although 2 of the TO’s credited to Hibbert were really nice passes that his teammates couldn’t handle)..
Roy has shown more in each game than Nesterovic (the starter).. He’s shown the things that he did well in College. He’s a great passer from the high post. He shoots a high percentage (58% so far). Makes his Free Throws; and he’s been blocking shots (2 per game).. The only negatives are the Fouls and Turn Overs… especially the fouls.. If he can learn to stop reaching, he’ll be the starting Center. (Why do big guys think they can steal the ball from someone, like a guard?)
TJ Ford is QUICK and fast…. and he will make the Pacers better… especially running O’Brien’s up-tempo Offense. So far, the Pacers have been showing off that running style, and Brandon Rush and Danny Grainger (and even Jack) will benefit greatly from having Ford as the PG.
They’re 2-2 in the preseason so far… and the running, fast-pace style has served them well… The only team that could slow them down was New Orleans.
If they put up 100 points, they’re gonna win…
by Rook6980 on Oct 16, 2008 1:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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