Ball Don't Lie says 34-48 for the Wizards this season
Feel free to disagree with the ultimate conclusion, but at least consider the merits of the Oleksiy Pecherov photoshop before doing so.
about 1 year ago
JakeTheSnake
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Sadly, I think it's about right
With everyone healthy, this is potentially a 50-win team. With Arenas injured for half the year, I would have said we’d have about the same record. With Haywood now out for the year, I think we’re in the lottery.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Oct 14, 2008 5:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Although I will say
I think the Pythag is misleading because, due to the lack of depth, the Wiz were blown out a ton on second games of back-to-backs last year. That really affected the point differential.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Oct 14, 2008 5:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I AGREE WITH "BALL DONT LIE"
Haywood gonna miss an entire season and hes our big part that we finish43-39 last year. thomas can’t ply as well as haywood and we hv to rely on him now… jamison and mostly butler r not gonna last through out the year and if they do, we might have a chance of at least an .500 record but I DOUBT IT. We r gettin older and older and not gettin better while the rest of east improve.. I know that we always complain how other writers count the wiz out, and we kind of prove them wrong, BUT i hv a feelin that of all the things that goin on, we might not make the playoff this year. My prediction is 35-47
by ak47 on Oct 14, 2008 6:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So basically
what you guys are saying is that now that Haywood is gonna miss most of the season you guys think the Wizards are going to just give up and go for the lottery? Sorry, thats not how this team works. They did’nt win 43 games last year by luck. They won 43 games last year because they are one of the most resilient teams in the league. Hopefully you guys are just sad because of the news about Haywood and just are in the mood to think everything will come crashing down for everyone involved with the team. Who’s to say that Thomas can’t have a career year this year. I mean, did anyone expect Haywood to have the season he did last year.
Am I the only one here that knows how to look on the bright side while still considering the problems.
by lj15 on Oct 14, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not about giving up.
No one is saying the Wizards are going to give up. Certainly no one on this site would think that, and the BDL write-up makes a point of saying that the team fought hard all year last year, and expects them to do the same this season. But there’s a limit to how much a team can fight. Especially when then bench has as many guys still trying to establish themselves and figure out their role in the NBA.
Personally I think their win total will creep a little closer to 40 (though probably not much), but looking at the team you root for with a clear, critical eye and seeing some weaknesses is not saying they’re going to give up.
by Jon L on Oct 14, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even with Haywood out for most of the season
im not even close to taking the Wizards out of the playoff picture. I think the main thing that will determine whether this team will win 50 games or 30 games is when Gilbert Arenas comes back and how effective will he be when he comes back. Its hard to predict an amount of wins and losses for a team that has Gilbert Arenas joining them somewhere around half way through the season. Their record this year hinges on Gilbert Arenas.
In my opinion if the Wizards can stay .500+ until Gilbert comes back and if everything goes well when he comes back i’d still be comfortable with signing them up for 45-50 wins. But, if everything crashes and burns through the first couple months of the season (which I doubt will happen) then I would be ready to start saying that I don’t think they will make the playoffs. 34 wins for me right now is not realistic, but who knows what will happen.
by lj15 on Oct 14, 2008 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with lj15
If Gil comes back in Dec/Jan, if Caron and AJ stay healthy, if we have no other major injuries…I see no reason why we should finish worse than last year.
The loss of Haywood is a blow, but the addition of Thomas and the growth of Blatche, McGuire, Young will more than make up for it.
It’s not unlikely that we could be peaking at the end of the season instead of before the all star break.
by MR on Oct 14, 2008 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the perfect Wiz world
If Thomas can stay healthy.
If Blatche takes the next step
If Daniels can play 30 minutes per game again this year
If Young can play defense and play within the Offense.
If McGuire can bring some semblance of Offense to his otherwise well rounded game.
If Gil comes back in Dec/Jan
If Gil comes back 100%
If Caron and Jamison stay healthy
You’re absolutely right…. the Wizards should finish no worse than last year… (they could have been a 50 win team with Arenas healthy the whole year).
The more of those things that don’t happen; the worse the Wizards record will be.
If Thomas goes down – We’ll have to rely on Blatche, Songaila (ugh), and McGee
If Blatche does not improve over last year, The Wiz 2nd unit will be dominated every game.
If Young is the same TO prone, Defensive liability – then play Mason (oh wait-he’s gone)…
If McGuire’s jumper was only a Mid-Summer night’s dream, CB3 will pull big minutes again.
If Gil doesn’t come back, or comes back dragging his leg (like last year) – forget the Playoffs.
If Daniels breaks down from the load, we won’t have a PG
If Caron or Jamison get hurt – well, just throw in the towel; hello Lottery
Personally, I had the Wizards winning 49 games this year (Before Arenas’ 3rd surgery. Before Haywood’s injury. ) I’ve revised my estimate to an optimistic 40 games – but this season could go South in a hurry.
by Rook6980 on Oct 14, 2008 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perfection not needed
In your first set of “ifs” the only thing required for a 41 win season is that the injury situation not get worse. That means Gil comes back as predicted and that Caron and AJ not go out for extended periods. I don’t think it requires a huge step from Blatche, Young or McG just baby steps.
I don’t think that requires perfection. Just a streak of average luck.
As for the second set of “ifs”, try applying them to any team in the league. If any team in the league loses it’s first and second center, shows no progress from ANY of their developing players, loses their first and second PG, and loses two of their three top players…yeah they’re screwed.
It could happen. We could continue to see every player on the roster get injured and have to sign an entire D-league team just to put 5 guys on the court. I guess that shouldn’t surprise me, the way that things have been going.
I’m saying that if our spate of freakish bad luck stops now and things move forward the way we should expect them to, we should be in the playoff hunt as our team is becoming whole.
by MR on Oct 15, 2008 6:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not every IF
as I said: “The more of those things that don’t happen; the worse the Wizards record will be.”
Only one or two of those suppositions need happen for the Wizards season to completely turn sour- ie: Lottery
Not every one….
by Rook6980 on Oct 15, 2008 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, I'm hoping for the best
Just realistically, I’m finding it hard to believe this team makes the playoffs with all its injuries. I hope I’m wrong.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Oct 14, 2008 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This isn't AIM
Please format your sentences.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Oct 14, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Chicago can get lucky, why can't we?
With the first pick in the 2009 NBA draft, the Washington Wizards select B.J. Mullens from The Ohio State University.
by hibachi on Oct 14, 2008 6:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Please lord
Not a white center….we need a PG of the future.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
by Truth About It on Oct 14, 2008 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mullins?
With the first pick, the Washington Wizards select Ricky Rubio from DKV Joventut.
by Rook6980 on Oct 14, 2008 8:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We could seriously use a PG
But can Rubio defend?
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on Oct 14, 2008 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A resounding YES
He’s considered a very good defender, in a League that puts a premium on Defense.
Big for a PG at 6’4" with good lateral quickness.
Don’t put the ball in front of him, he WILL take it.
Not especially athletic (he won’t block your shot), but he will stay in front of all but the VERY quickest Point Guards (ie: Chris Paul. Not many others qualify)…
He has incredible anticipation, allowing him to play the passing lanes for steals, BUT he also plays outstanding on-ball defense as well. Very difficult to find someone that does both well.
Here’s DraftExpress’ Profile:
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Ricky-Rubio-1155/
And a youtube video:
by Rook6980 on Oct 14, 2008 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't get it
Why are we taking Ricky Rubio again?
by hibachi on Oct 14, 2008 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good God this is depressing
Here we are in mid Oct. and we are already talking about the lottery and what happens if we get lucky and get the number once pick! Aaaaaaaaaacccccccccccccckkkkkkkkkk!!!!!!!!!!!!! Can’t we wait for things to go bust before we starting having these kinds of conversations!
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Oct 15, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the real question is
how many times are we gonna have to draft ’em until we get it right?
by hibachi on Oct 14, 2008 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
even without haywood
if we have arenas, jamison, and butler together for half the season and still finish 7 games below .500, that doesn’t bode well for the future.
on the other hand, if that happens, you might be able to blame it on a supporting cast that could be downright atrocious. haywood might be the only above average supporting player on the team at this point.
not sure which is more problematic though. if it’s a lack of big 3 dominance, then we just overpaid for mediocrity. if it’s a crappy supporting cast, then i don’t see any financial flexibility to rework the support players.
i have very little faith in any of the current prospects developing into positive difference makers in the nba, but i’m going to cross my fingers and hope they prove me wrong, because if they don’t, and if we finish 7 games below .500 in the eastern conference, then not sure what we have to look forward to.
the lottery doesn’t seem like a potential upside to this season. we’d be more likely to land kwame brown or andrea bargnani than tim duncan. and aren’t we already waiting on a bunch of prospects to develop, particularly blatche?
seems to me that the best thing we can hope for is that the young guys use the extra PT in the first part of the year to develop – that either young or blatche, or both, make a leap, and arenas and the team come together the second part of the year and tear it up.
as a fan, i’ll be rooting hard for that to happen, realistic or not.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Oct 14, 2008 10:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Prospects?
“aren’t we already waiting on a bunch of prospects to develop, particularly blatche?”
As you noted, the continued development of Blatche is not the ONLY key this year (Young and McGuire also need to step up for the Wizards to get better)…If Blatche doesn’t develop as anticipated this year, our season WILL tank. Lottery might be in the cards.
If that happens, why wouldn’t the Wizards draft another big PF to develop – after all, Blatche has had 4-years. If he doesn’t show something this year, Ernie should look to replace him. Trading him for anything solid would be hard, given his low salary – especially if he doesn’t improve (or regresses) this year. That leaves the draft as the only way to replace him.
You hit on the base problems. A lack of big-3 dominance cannot be fixed: there’s no flexibility. If the supporting cast doesn’t develop, the Wiz will not move forward.
That leaves the Draft as the ONLY potential upside.
by Rook6980 on Oct 14, 2008 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right
but like you said, we’ve already been waiting 4 years for blatche. we’ll already be waiting 3+ years for mcgee (if he ever pans out). so you’re saying the “upside” to our current players not developing is we draft someone new next summer and then wait another 2 or 3 years for that pick to develop? while our team is no longer looked at as a contender?
i don’t call that upside, i call that hitting rock bottom.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Oct 15, 2008 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hold on now
Blatche has developed pretty well. Last year, save for the last couple months, he was one of our best guys.
He’s also only 21. As far as “waiting on him,” it’s nice to know he’s proven to be a decent rotation player at the least.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Oct 15, 2008 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"save for the last couple months"
and the playoffs, where he got benched, deservedly.
seems to me we’re still waiting on him.
we’ll see what happens. my point is that if neither blatche nor young make strides this year (admittedly, i’m already writing off mcguire, pecherov, and brown, and assuming mcgee is at least 3 years away), then ernie’s really going to have to get creative to make this team look like a possible contender again. i’m not sure what assets we could afford to lose that we could use as bargaining chips, and we’d only have the MLE to use for free agents. (maybe i’m underestimating how much our expiring contracts would be worth though?)
anyway, with that in mind, i’d find a 34 win season this year to be depressing, and not something that would springboard us to being a potential contender in the following year or two, which, with this jamison contract we just handed out, i look at as our window.
on that note, i hope we win 40+ and make the playoffs because of blatche or young.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Oct 16, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you do underestimate expiring contracts
I suggest you (and everyone else) read Pradamaster’s post about the Nine potential trades to make in 2010
It remains one of my favorite posts on this blog…. and serves as a constant reminder to me on how fast our beloved Wizards could go from lower-middle of the pack playoff team, to knocking on the Championship door. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(or not.)
http://www.bulletsforever.com/2008/7/31/583970/eyeing-the-prize-nine-pote
by Rook6980 on Oct 16, 2008 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if our young'uns don't develop
still not optimistic. we could land a borderline all-star maybe – maybe – but we’d trade a lot of our established depth, and still be right up against the luxury tax, with haywood and butler re-ups still pending.
now if our kiddos do develop, and if those expiring contracts are valuable…
by DarrellWalkerFan on Oct 17, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just an odd note
Hollinger said we would go 36-46 and we were all over him for pegging us too low. Now KD comes and says we’ll go 34-48 and we’re much more accepting.
I realize the Haywood surgery changes things, but I still find it kind of funny.
Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.
by JakeTheSnake on Oct 14, 2008 11:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it does
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Oct 14, 2008 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actual games played
The way the Wizards have played in the Preseason games has had an effect on our perceptions of the team as well.
Let’s face it, when the only game you’re competitive is against the Memphis Grizzlies, it will tend to force the fans expectations down somewhat.
by Rook6980 on Oct 14, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But remember
You can’t really judje too much off of preseason games this year if you look at who is playing the majority of the minutes.
by lj15 on Oct 15, 2008 7:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
I don’t think the difference between Haywood and Thomas is 12-14 wins.
It’s a long season, folks. And it hasn’t even started yet.
by MR on Oct 15, 2008 6:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If everyone stays healthy
34 is a bit low. But I could definitely see injuries start to pile up just as Arenas comes back healthy, thereby putting us in the low 30s
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Oct 15, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So basically
you just see more bad luck. Like everytime from now on that someone comes back from injury you think someone else will go down, right?
by lj15 on Oct 15, 2008 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, no
I’m just saying it could easily happen, especially if Eddie continues to overwork his core vets.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Oct 16, 2008 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i find it funny too
but i think it’s because people’s expectations of having a 55 win team this year were unrealistic, even with full health. the problem is, as BDL pointed out, we are too thin.
we didn’t address this in the offseason. all we did was lose a player in roger mason jr.
as for my own funny realization, before last season i was really high on the team, precisely because i thought we had finally arrived at having depth on the roster. i thought songaila would be a great reserve on this team – i was wrong. i thought blatche would develop into a big time player, but, just like at the dmv, he was a no show. i thought etan would give us a physical presence off the bench, but he went down. and now my impression of him is more realistic – he is not a reliable starter, he’s only good for bursts off the bench. now AD is getting old.
i think that the holes on this team are starting to show more clearly and people are adjusting their perspective.
however, i do think this team is likely to fight through another year and make the playoffs again. that’s what guys like butler and jamison do.
but EG needs to work some magic to strengthen this team at some point if we’re going to contend.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Oct 15, 2008 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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