I think Hollinger’s prediction is based mostly off an assumption that Gilbert won’t play.contribute this season. Outside of the actual prediction I liked the article. I thought it had a lot of good information.

That’s not to say I agreed with everything said, for one I thought Daniels/Stevenson weren’t given enough credit for their contributions.

If the Wizards did lose GIlbert for the season, I don’t see a huge amount separating the team for the chasing pack in the East. There’s a lot of improvement in Indiana, Charlotte, Milwaukee and Miami … plus teams like Atlanta, Chicago could take steps forward depending on the progression their youth achieve. That’s 6 teams, there’s issues facing all of them but you’d have to fancy at least a couple of them working out in a positive manner. I think the Wizards, without Gil, could easily get sucked into a dogfight with a couple of those teams. But what would you expect when you lose your best player for a season? It’s tough not to fall back. For now the question is largely irrelevant because all indications are that Gilbert will play a large portion of the season and Gilbert does create a good degree of separation from the chasing pack.

Hollinger says we had trouble defending the 3 because with Etan injured, we often had mismatches in the paint and were forced to double team or trap. He then says later on at the end of the article that size in the paint isn’t a “panacea” for defending the 3 and that we’ll still likely have trouble with it.

and they could if EJ doesn’t lighten their workload. I think Etan makes a difference because it’s better to have him spelling Haywood then Blatche or Songaila. At least when Thomas is on the floor there won’t be a need to double team so much. I wonder what it will take to get Hollinger to pick the Wizards to be good?

The 3-point shot is the great equalizer in the NBA. It takes only 4 possessions to get 12 points when shooting 3’s – whereas it takes 6 possessions shooting 2’s.

I remember many games last year (not just one, or a few), where the Wizards failed to locate the hot shooter. One of the most basic tenants of Basketball Defense is find the shooter… The one or two guys that can really hurt you. Don’t let them have an easy shot. If they take a contested 3 and make it – fine. But find them before they cross the half court line…….

Time and time again last year, the Wizards looked like they were inviting the best 3-point shooter on the opponent’s team to shoot the ball.

Dwight Howard may get 2 points in the paint – and yes, he may even draw the foul…. (may)… but at least that shot is contested.

Almost every NBA player, if they’re WIDE OPEN, can hit a high percentage of 3-point shots. And I’llI even include Centers, and brick layers like Michael Ruffin in that statement. They’re Professional NBA Basketball players for a reason…..

No – improve the pick-and-roll defense, and take away the easy 3-point shots, and the Wizards Defense will improve dramatically (even if they give up more points in the paint)…

Everyone here recognizes that the Wizards 3-point defense is horrid. What everyone can’t seem to agree on is the cause. I believe this debate boils down to two schools of thought.

School #1
This school believes the problem with the perimeter defense is that the Wizards don’t have good perimeter defenders. Doclinkin appears to subscribe to this school. I remember during the offseason that many here were clamoring that we take a guy like Mario Chalmers instead of Roy Hibbert because we really didn’t need a low-post defender but rather a perimeter defender. The theory was that we can defend the paint just fine, but our perimeter guys like Butler, Stevenson, Arenas, Daniels, and Young couldn’t stay with their man around screens and were giving up too many treys as a result. This school also believed that we bring in a defensive-minded small forward as a free-agent, like a Matt Barnes or a James Posey.

I do not belong to this school and I believe that this school misses the point.

School #2
This school believes the poor perimeter defense is born from poor strategy and not poor man-on-man defending. This school believes there is nothing wrong with Butler’s and Stevenson’s defense. This school understands that Arenas, Young, and Daniels aren’t good defenders, but their impact is much less in this area than the overall defensive strategy.

School #2 has witnessed countless times where perimeter defenders left their man on the perimeter to double-team a player in the low-post, only to see that open perimeter player drain a wide-open 3-pointer seconds later, while the defender desperately tries to close out on him too late. School #2 recognizes this as a strategy flaw.

Furthermore, School #2 believes that the real problem is the lack of trust between the Wizards coaching staff and the Wizards low-post defenders, much of which is justified. Many in School #2 believe that the only cure for this collapse and close-out defensive strategy flaw is to bring in or develop guys to defend the low-post better, thus negating the need to double-team and enable perimeter defenders to actually stay on their men and defend them.

This is the school I subscribe to. I say bring in James Posey or Matt Barnes if you want, but until we can defend the low-post, we’re still going to be watching wide-open 3-pointers while Posey and/or Barnes are standing in the paint.

(AKA ‘Blame Jamison’)

See my reply above.

In brief: gimmicky defenses can partially cover for a poor defender, but eventually they break down. The problem is compounded when the defender is most often a post player since all perimeter threats funnel into the post. If one perimeter defender is terrible: one opponent gets an easy shot; but if one post player is terrible, any penetration gets an easy shot.

Hair-pulling Conundrum is: Jamison is critical for offensive spacing. Player-pairs regressions reveal that Jamison’s presence accounts for an uptick in the eFG% of the teammates on the floor with him. This despite NEVER racking an assist. When he is a perimeter threat, the Bigs follow him outside and the paint is open for wing attackers etc.

Plus, he’s our best rebounder, though to do so he floats off his man and tracks down the ball in open space. Not the best defensive technique, but like most of his unorthodox game it works for him where it wouldn’t work for anyone else. And on this team, it’s critical.

Solution: perimeter-shooting True Bigs who can rebound and defend underneath.

Complication: they ain’t easy to find or breed or grow on your own.

One possible method of resolution: Draft finesse Bigs in Bulk. Draft 4 or 5 of them, one is bound to pan out and eventually take Jamison’s place in the starting line, bumping him to the bench where his hustle and energy etc will still help.

Otherwise methods for future trial? Stockpile talent for future trades & Steal Kevin Garnett from Minnesota? (scratch that…) Scrap the gimmicky offense despite success and revert to more traditional Pro sets? (Keep that idea on the backburner). Land a finesse Center instead and have your low-skill muscle defender at the 4 spot (possible).

He has said he fully expects Dray to take his spot. Has told him he wants him to. But Dray’s gonna have to work to earn and deserve it. Jamison’s not gonna jsut roll over and hand it to him, Dray has to outwork him.

This was in the context of a conversation where Jamison was telling Dray to take the first bus to shootaround. The quote went something like:

“Do you make 12 million dollars a year? Did you just make an all-star team? Do you see Caron taking the late bus? Do you see me taking the late bus? You get here on the first bus. When you make your first all-star team then you can take the late bus…”

And in quotes this year he has said the team needs Dray to start to take some of his minutes. Jamison has pride, but he’s made a ton of money and at this point he just wants to be on a winning team and good situation. I think if Jamison could deliver a Championship to Abe Pollin, he’d come off the bench to do it, no question. But the guy ahead of him has got to be better than him, and working harder, and racking accolades.

And frankly from a team leader that’s the attitude I expect. dray needs to work his ass off, why expect anything less?

I think you are assuming way too much way too early about Blatche. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. He could develop into an all star caliber player, but that’s no lock. In fact on this very board, this honorable gathering of the most learned, intelligent, introspective Wizards fans in the free world 76% of respondents thought Blatche would eventually develop into “borderline all-star”, “not quite all star”, or “solid, not spectacular” just one month ago. Based on some good reports from training camp our ACTUAL all star should be swept aside? The guy who is the glue that keeps the team together? The guy that is asked every year to carry the team while the other star players recover from injury?

Sorry, I’d like to see results, not potential from Blatche first. I hope and pray he is the league MVP this year. Or that he makes the all star team. Or that he shows some of the potential a lot of us think is there. But there is a long way from where Blatche is to where Jamison is.

As to the situation in Dallas, I think it’s possible that Jamison’s unhappiness stemmed from the actual trade, from being a top option on one team to being a sixth man on another. I’m not sure he was upset that he should necessarily be starting ahead of the other fwds on that team, just that he shouldn’t have been sent someplace that was overcrowded at his position.

Finally about the money…believe me, it’s never enough. 16 million? That’s nothing. Money is money and you can never have enough. I don’t begrudge Jamison his payday.

Thanks for the thoughtful comments.

… I agree with MR.

Jamison has said he fully expects Dray to take his job. He has said he’s had to mature a ton since Golden State and even since landing here. He takes his role as a team leader very seriously, has spoken with great fondness about his respect for Abe Pollin.

When it comes to negotiations, Gilbert is rare that he does not have an agent. Most players step out of the way and allow their agents to do the negotiating. Jamison’s agent had a TON of leverage this year since Jamison’s deal was to get done first and Gilbert said if he wasn’t signed then Gil would skip. This is Tawn’s last deal in the league (in all probability) his agent will never get a cut quite so big, and Gil was the guy saying ‘get all you can, it’ll come out of my deal afterward’.

I have the same respect for Jamison I ever had. And I take him at his word when he says Dray will move him out of the starting line. I have no problem with the estimation that we will be a champs contender when Jamison is bumped to the bench — but that’s because it means Andray has begun to live up to his talent and has moved Tawn aside on merit.

As of right now, Dray isn’t even a better defender than Jamison. Jamison had the league’s second best ON/Off stats, behind only Steve Nash. And for most of the year Jamison was 1st on that list. That is: the team was 14 points better with Jamison on court than with him off court.

And defensively the team was ~3 points worse with him off court. That’s good for just outside the top 20 most effective players in On/Off defensive stats. That’s not something you bump aside easily.

By contrast, Dray was in the top 10 worst players in terms of opponent Free Throws given up. Good for almost 6 extra free throws for the other team per 100 possessions. That’s all hella hacking.

Point being. If Dray becomes all-star caliber, and bumps Tawn to the bench, we’ve got a sincerely nasty team. But give him a couple years man, he’s not there yet. This is a redshirt Junior who caught a bulletwound int he lungs and shooting hand his freshman year, and has just started to learn how to actually work like it matters. Let him look up to Jamison’s work ethic and see how to act like it matters. We’ve got time.