Ridiculously Premature Playoff Speculation

by jvflail on Jan 7, 2008 5:05 PM EST Comment 8 comments

Come April, we may not be able to speculate at all. So here's my rundown of the Wiz's chances if the playoffs started tomorrow.

Before I get to the playoff match-ups, I'll offer some universal truths that should be as correct in April as they are today:

A 7 or 8 seed equals failure. Even if we still end up 2nd in the Southeast, a 7 or 8 seed would pit us against Boston or Detroit in Round 1. Making the playoffs is no fun when you get swept in Round 1 and your average loss is by 20 points.
Gilbert's knee impacts everything except truth #1. If he comes back healthy and we still only manage a 7 or 8 seed, we'll still get swept by Boston or Detroit. The point differential may be closer, but we'll still get mushed.
Jamison and Butler have to be healthy. Even if Gilbert comes back, I don't know how far this team can go w/out these two guys running at full speed.

Okay, now we move on to the wild prognostications:

A. If the playoffs ended tomorrow, Wiz fans should be pretty happy w/ the seeding. We'd have home court in the first round against NJ. From what I've seen so far this year, we could take em (with or without Arenas). Plus, the Nets don't have any roster help waiting to come give them a boost (barring a trade obviously). Kristic, I believe, is out for the year. Granted, I'd still be scared of a Jason Kidd-led team in a 7-game series, but we match up really well against the Nets. Advancing to Round 2 is about as good as the Wiz can do this year. I'd watch and root every second of every game against Bos or Det, but this year's Eastern Conference Finals appear to be a foregone conclusion.

B. Orlando doesn't scare anybody. They got off to a hot start, but are coming back to earth rapidly. Plus, the player who they turn to the most (Dwight Howard) is a turnover and missed free-throw machine. In addition, Howard is their only tough player. Lewis and Hedo are soft as tissue paper. In today's playoff bracket, they'd play Cleveland. If I were a betting man, I'd place a large wager on the Cavs in that match-up.

C. Toronto scares me. Everyone on that roster can shoot. If TJ Ford comes back healthy (not sure about his status), they'll have a lethal 1-2 punch at PG with Calderon. If Bargnani improves at all over the last 3/5s of the season, the Raptors are a strong bet to make it out of Round 1 (provided that they are not a 7 or 8 seed).

D. I hope the Hawks make the playoffs. It makes me sick to my stomach when I see a Hawks home game and there are 11 people in the stands. This franchise needs some excitement, even if it is a 1st round drubbing at the hands of the Celtics.

E. The inevitable Celtics/Pistons Eastern Conference Finals will be a world war. As it stands right now, could you schedule two more evenly matched juggernauts?

F. The answer to the above question is "Yes." The Spurs versus the Suns over in the West would also be a world war. If the conference finals in both the East and the West play out this way, look for NBA TV ratings to skyrocket.

G. Any match-up resultant from those conference finals will be yet another world war. After last year's disaster w/ the overmatched Cavs, look for the NBA to take a long, deserved sip of refreshment in this year's playoffs.

H. Lastly, take a look at the bottom of the current playoff standings. Do any of those non-playoff teams scare you? Indy, Philly, Chi, Mil, Char, NY, and Mia (a hilarious double meaning in the contraction by the way) are all struggling to put 2-game win streaks together, much less make the playoffs. I know it's too early. I know anything could happen. But I personally think the 8 teams currently in the playoffs will be the same teams to be there in April. Maybe not the same order, but most likely the same teams...and that includes the Wiz!

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

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It's never too early for playoff speculations!

-Starting with your last point, Chicago is the only team on that list that worries me at all. There's always the possibility that they wake up and realize they're the same team as they were the past two years, and it's time they started playing that way. The rest of those teams are duds, no doubt.

-Yeah, barring injuries, I see the wiz making the playoffs regardless of Gil's return. The top of the east has gotten a lot better, but that has synced up with the utter collapse of Miami. The wiz aren't elite without Gil, but they're playoff-bound in the east without him.

-Miami is the worst team in the east, and the only weaker team in the league is the Minnesota Spareparts er, T-Wolves. This doesn't impact the playoffs, but any opportunity to point that out is totally worth taking.

-I think the Wiz want badly to end up in either the 3 spot or the 6 spot. 3 is a possibility if Orlando keeps losing games and we get Gil back, healthy and integrated in March. You're right that 7 and 8 are deadly playoffs seeds this year, but I don't hate the possibility of a second-round matchup with Detroit. They're playing great ball right now, but we've always matched up well with them when at full strength. I wouldn't say the Wiz are a favorite in that situation, but they aren't red meat either. Then if the Wizards somehow managed to beat Detroit, we've just got to hope that injury or exhaustion renders Boston vulnerable.

-I'm not terrified of any opposing playoff team except Boston. I'd prefer not to play Detroit, Toronto, or New Jersey, though. Personally, I think NJ matches up pretty well against us. Against Orlando, Atlanta, or Cleveland, I think this squad is in decent shape.

by sierradave on Jan 7, 2008 6:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Don't count the Wizards out...

I wouldn't be so quick to claim that the Wizards would be dead meat against the C's. Yes, as the team is constructed now, dead meat. But. But. With Gil, anything, and I mean anything is possible. This team is so much deeper then last years team. We have a legit Big Man. AD is playing inspired basketball. Although very inconsistent, Young, Mason, and Blatche have given us minutes off the bench. Then you come to Butler. He has grown immensely since last year, specifically with the three ball. Add all that up, a relatively healthy, and well-intergrated Gilbert led team could take down the vaunted C's. Outside of the Big Ticket, there isn't a better player on that team then Gil, maybe even Butler.

by zeke5123 on Jan 8, 2008 1:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I hope you're right, but I just can't see it

What I can see is Ray Allen and Paul Pierce feasting on our 3-point defense; Garnett scaring Haywood back to reality and clobbering AD on any foray into the lane; Eddie House infuriating me with his spurtability; Big Baby outplaying Blatche; and Rajon Rondo hounding Gilbert full court for 48 minutes.

I'm not sure I agree with you when you say that of the big 6 in question, Butler and Gilbert rank right behind Garnett. Both Pierce and Allen have gone as deep (and deeper in Pierce's case at least) into the playoffs as Butler and Arenas. When you compare careers, Allen and Pierce win hands down in terms of individual and team accomplishments. Granted Arenas and Butler are younger, faster, and stronger (when 100%), but the Boston guys are playing at a ridiculously high level right now.

It's kinda interesting to think about the starting fives of the Wiz and the Celts if the Big 3s got traded for each other (as illogical as that may be). I'd take a starting 5 of Daniels, Allen, Pierce, Garnett, and Haywood over any other starting 5 in the league. The other team - Arenas, Tony Allen, Butler, Jamison, and Kendrick Perkins - doesn't seem so hot.

by jvflail on Jan 8, 2008 2:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Piere and Allen

They may have gone deeper in the playoffs, but that was then, this is now. Just like you shoudln't pay players for what they did instead of what they will do, don't confuse player "talent" level with history and current status.

I think hands down, a healthy, Gil is better then either Pierce or Allen. My expertise is more in baseball stats then basketball, so I can't give you advanced metrics, but by PPG and APG Gil blows them out of the water, has more range on his shot then Allen, and is faster and stronger then either. Put other way, in a basketball vacuum (so we don't have to worry about how totally awesome of a person Gil is) would you trade a healthy Gil for a Pierce or Allen? I know I wouldn't.

Caron is debatable, but he brings the whole package.

And I know it was only one game, but the only Wizard to show up last C's game was Haywood.

The reason why you would take the "New Wizards" is because the "New Celtics" would completely lack an inside presence. Have we seen enough of beast mode Haywood to call him a presence? I think so. I think with all of their horses, we don't need to pray for an injury/fatigue for the Celtics. This is a good team. With a healthy Gil you have a player that can win a game by himself, and his supporting cast is winning without him. This bodes well.

by zeke5123 on Jan 8, 2008 3:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The problem is

Boston's defense would completely take Arenas out of the game, between Rondo's harassment and KG's incredible helpside and pick and roll defense. Garnett would be too physical for Antawn Jamison, and while I think Haywood might be effective, Kendrick Perkins has been really solid for them this year.

On the other end, Boston runs a fairly uncomplicated offense based mostly on finding a defensive matchup problem and exploiting it. I don't see us being able to handle each member of their Big 3, especially Pierce and Garnett, who are way too strong for Butler/Jamsion.

Bench-wise, they have question marks, but so do we, and our are more glaring. Posey, House, and Tony Allen have played great ball for them all year.

I want no part of Boston at any point on the playoff path. They're world's better than us, and simply comparing each of the Big 3s doesn't do them justice.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 8, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I actually would like to see Toronto

I don't like the New Jersey matchup, because we couldn't guard both Carter and Jefferson in a seven-game series, and I wonder how we could stop Sean Williams on the glass.

Toronto doesn't scare me much. If we put Haywood on Chris Bosh, that neutralizes their one big offensive player. The Calderon/Ford/Daniels/Arenas matchup is troublesome, but we can trap their pick and rolls effectively with whoever is not guarding Bosh. Offensively, we can score at will on them, and I see Jamison and Haywood dominating the glass.

I could also live with Orlando, though stopping Howard would not be an easy thing.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 8, 2008 4:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Obvisouly we don't want to see Boston...

It may have been hyperbole, but do you honestly believe we couldn't beat Boston? Obviously they are better, but do you think we have no chance (with a healthy Gil)? Am I just really overrating Gil?

by zeke5123 on Jan 8, 2008 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No chance

With or without Gilbert there is no way we could beat a healthy Celtics or Detroit team at this point. I know our bench is deeper, Gilbert's comeback could significantly help, and Caron's game has risen to the next level in almost every way but we just aren't in their league right now. Both teams play great defense, we have no answer for Garnett, Pierce has always killed us, and Detroit has too many weapons. I know it was without Gilbert but if you watched the Detroit game last week they are just as deep as us and are playing scary basketball. Billups has always driven Arenas crazy by the way. We are on the right track to becoming a contender but aren't there yet. Jvflail is correct, barring injury those two teams are playing in the Eastern conference finals and I'd be mildly surprised if any team took them to six games prior to the Eastern Conference finals. More of a statement of how good those teams are because I like our chances against any other Eastern conference team out there.

by Moonman on Jan 8, 2008 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs