What if Gibert walks?

by mamemimo on Jan 23, 2008 2:09 PM EST Comment 32 comments

Ok, I know we're all feeling good about the Wiz right now, but I was thinking... what if the worst happens, and Gil leaves the Wizards as a free agent? What should our contingency plan be?

Remember, losing Gil does mean freeing up a lot of cap room - I think he's getting paid around $13 million this year.

My suggestion:
Resign Antawn Jamison. Ok, this is a gimme. Antawn has more than proved his worth this year, and he's coming off a max deal, so signing him for something like $8-10 a year works. With the money freed up from losing Gil, there is NO reason not to keep him. I'd try to sign him to one of those Ben Wallace-style front loaded contracts too, so he doesn't kill our cap if he breaks down when he gets older.

Sign Jose Calderon. He'll be in demand, but Toronto has money locked up in T.J. Ford, so we should be able to pry him away, even though he's a restricted free agent. He's only 26, he's effecient as hell and he'd be perfect in an up-tempo offense with two great scorers like Caron and Antawn.

What do you guys think? What would you do?

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

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Expiring contracts 2008/2009

Andre Iguodola
Andre Miller
Shawn Marion
Mike Bibby
Kevin Martin
Carlos Boozer (opt out)
Josh Smith
Al Jefferson
Okafor
Ben Gordon
Dwight Howard
Jameer Nelson
Baron Davis
AI (God Forbid)
These are the highlights. If you really want an impressive list, check out the class of 09/10, headed by DWade.
Just some food for thought!

I knew Manute Bol, and you sir are no Manute Bol!

by houserocker on Jan 23, 2008 7:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

There certainly will be some nice players available if Gil leaves. I'd be most interested in Calderon, as mimo suggests, and Boozer (should he opt out) or Jefferson from houserocker's list. As solid as Haywood has been on defense, it'd be nice to get a monster rebounder who can score in the low post.

As to houserocker's list, didn't Howard just sign a long-term extension? Kevin Martin too?

"Now, obviously individual production does not unilaterally equal better team production, but there's a high level of causation."

by Vanilla Gorilla on Jan 24, 2008 5:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I pray it isn't the case

If the team wants to continue in the same direction without resigning gil, Baron Davis would seem like the most like for like replacement. He's a slight downgrade in the points and three point shooting and maybe a slight upgrade in overall defense. Only slightly older than gil as well. Huge downgrade in nicknames.

by five by five on Jan 25, 2008 10:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

One Bum Knee for Another?

Don't get me wrong, Baron Davis is a great player. I just don't see the logic of not signing one great point guard because of his contract demands and his bum knee in order to sign an older great point guard who also has big contract demands and a bum knee.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jan 25, 2008 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

One Hundred percent agree in fact, the way to go is to re-sign gil at the max and hope his knee holds out. But if we do lose gil through penny-pinching we need to go for somebody who brings a lot of the same attributes, namely the ability to get to the rim. The defense was bad against the cavs, but shooting 14% in the third quarter is what turned it into a blowout.

by five by five on Jan 25, 2008 12:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Don't Call it Penny-Pinching

I don't think it's fair to say that if Ernie doesn't sign Gil to the max this offseason, then Abe must be penny-pinching. There are legitimate reasons why the Wizards might not want to resign Gilbert, and money is only part of the reason.

What nobody seems to want to talk about is the possible impact of Gilbert's knee injury. Will Gilbert ever again be as good of a player as he was before he blew out his knee? Will he ever be able to play a full season again without injury? Will he be able to play 40 minutes a night on a regular basis again without risking re-injury?

These are big questions that should be on EG's mind. Having a max contract on your payroll severely limits your ability to make changes to improve your team. I, for one, would be willing to take that risk on Gilbert. However, I can't fault Ernie if he doesn't.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jan 25, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's fair

And that's the main difference between Gil and Davis for me in terms of upside. We've seen how Davis has come back from his knee injury, while how gil will deal is still an unknown.

by five by five on Jan 25, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good Point

Davis is averaging close to 40 minutes per game this season, and has played in every game. However, don't forget that he missed significant time last season because of recurring problems with his knee. That's the problem with knee injuries, they can often nag a player for the rest of his career.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jan 25, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What about a sign and trade

Wouldn't a sign and trade be the most likely scenario if Ernie decides he doesn't want to keep Gilbert? I can't see Ernie letting Arenas just walk away without getting something very large in return and Arenas makes more money that way as well. From that list - Al Jefferson and Boozer would give us a legit post up option (which we've been missing for approximately forever).

by Moonman on Jan 25, 2008 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Al Jefferson

God, I hope we don't get him. Don't get me wrong, he's a legit 20-10 guy, but even Zach Randolph thinks the guy doesn't play enough D.

The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.

by mamemimo on Jan 25, 2008 4:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Two other big free agents not on the list -

Ron Artest and Luol Deng. Also Kwame is a free agent too! LOL.

Martin and Howard did already sign deals.

by ooba on Jan 25, 2008 5:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Truth is

Most of the high-impact guys, Calderon included, will be locked up by their teams instead of becoming free agents.

As mentioned above, the only real scenario here is a sign and trade. Philly is the only team well below the cap next offseason, and they don't want Gilbert.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 25, 2008 6:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

free agents

calderon will be great, but bryan colangelo was on chad ford's podcast and said that theyre gonna pay whatever it takes to sign calderon this summer.

I would really like josh smith, hes a great talent and i think he could be pried away from the hawks by overpaying him a little. Unfortunately, he doesnt fit in with the wizards with jamison and butler, but hes out there and could be a great pickup.

by Wooz on Jan 27, 2008 3:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Woof

My fear of Josh Smith is that he is a complete head case and I have Hot Rod Strickland flash backs. Calderon most likely wouldn't be available.....so I would say resign Jamison for two years and make a run at Okafor. An all big line up of Butler, Blatche and Okafor, or Pesh, Okafor, and Butler would put the fear of Jeebus into people.

It is ALWAYS Roger Mason Jr. time.

by LadellforLife on Jan 27, 2008 3:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How bout this trade

How would you feel about a sign and trade of Gilbert to the Clippers for Elton Brand (I would like to take a flyer on Livingston and throw him in but that mite not be realistic)? Gilbert might be happy to go back to Los Angeles and we would get a legitimate post up presence, which we have lacked for a long time. Brand averages 20 and 10 in the West and is a high character guy.

by Moonman on Jan 28, 2008 9:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Article about this very same idea -

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cs-080127-sam-smith-nba-trades,1,5882346.column?ctrack=1&cs et=true

by ooba on Jan 28, 2008 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No

What's the point of investing in a player coming off an ACL tear?

Besides, where would Brand play? In Jamison, Butler, and Haywood, we have a fantastic frontcourt. I'd love a rugged post player, but not one who will steal too many minutes from those three.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 28, 2008 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Define fantastic

Haywood is too inconsistent to be considered fantastic by any stretch...center has been pointed out by most pundits to be our most glaring weakness. An upgrade at that position...especially in the center weak East, would push the Wiz far if Gil leaves...

It is ALWAYS Roger Mason Jr. time.

by LadellforLife on Jan 28, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I submit my case

http://bulletsforever.com/story/2008/1/10/192328/421

You misread me. The frontcourt is fantastic, not necessarily Haywood specifically (though he's playing really well). I don't see the point in upgrading it when we really need help with our depth.

Our starting five with a healthy Gilbert can rival anyone's in the league. It's the bench that could use more help.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 28, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I heart Elton Brand

The guy lays it all on the floor every night, and he spurned Duke. What's not to love?

However, he's not a center, he's a slightly undersized 4, and EJ will play him at center. If we have Jamison we don't need Brand, but he could be someone to look at if Jamison doesn't come back.

The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.

by mamemimo on Jan 28, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with the stats

...and Brendan has definitely shown improvement this season. However, as a long time viewer, there are too many nights that he takes off, and too many nights that he gets owned by lesser players. Bogut destroyed him last night. I definitely think you're right in that if have Gilbert healthy, then the only thing we need to upgrade is the bench, which is why I wonder at Ernie's indifference to adding someone with veteran experience who can fill it up occasionally.

It is ALWAYS Roger Mason Jr. time.

by LadellforLife on Jan 28, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Its a money thing

Methinks.

Hopefully, Ernie can trade Etan or Songaila to free up more flexibility under the tax.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 28, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, because who wants a 20-10 lowpost monster???

When you can have a 2guard trapped in a pg's body that can run a 1-man offense consistently?

Im sorry, but I would do a Gilbert for Brand trade in less than one second. I wouldnt even have to think about it. We're already a good team right now without Gilbert and if you added Elton Brand to that??? 24 and 10 a night on 55% shooooting, monster lowpost presence on offense plus a shotblocker and very good defender that would lock down the paint on defense with Haywood, did I mention that you have to doubleteam him every time and he's a good passer so he would get our guys massive amounts of open shots? You could just put roleplayers that can defend and hit open shots all around him and Caron and let them create and win 50 games...... with what we have to put around them 2 + Jamison We would DEFINITELY contend right away, period. Even if it was no Gilbert in the lineup and Brand replaced Jamison at PF (Meaning Brand replacing Gilbert AND Jamison), a team around just Butler/Brand inside/out duo could contend.....

but with Jamison added to that making a trio???? Even if Jamison had to slide to 6th man or Caron had to slide to the 2 while Jamioson slides to SF..... Just do it, we'll make it work definitely....... OMFG we would be a MONSTER!!!!

Sorry, but if that trade was possible Gilbert would have to go ASAP.

You definitely do that deal if possible. That is a no-brainer.

by billy332 on Jan 29, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

20/10 is a useless number for me

As mentioned below, Brand is productive, but he's hardly a back to the basket player, and I don't see the point in reshaping our entire style just to get a 29-year old power forward who shoots mostly jumpers and is coming off reconstructive knee surgery.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 30, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus

70 percent of Brand's shots were jumpers last season. Does that really sound like a post-up guy?

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 28, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brand on the Block

I think that number is a little misleading, I watched a LOT of Clippers games when I had League Pass, and Brand is definitely a low post player. He does tend to fade away on a lot of his post moves - or use a step-back jumper, but he's solid defensively and offensively in the post.

I'd really like to see where those jumpers are coming from, I'd bet most of them weren't from more than 8-10 feet out, max.

The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.

by mamemimo on Jan 28, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brand's game...

is really hard to describe and always has been. His post moves won't make anyone forget Hakeem the Dream, but he isn't Kwame on the block either, especially because of that short jumper. He really earns his bread with offensive rebounds. From a strictly offensive skills standpoint, you would have to say he's better than Haywood (assuming he comes back healthy). I'd go so far as to say even an 80% Brand could at least match Brendan's current career-high point/rebound production. Defensively, Brand blocks a lot of shots, but he's much easier to shoot over than Haywood...when Haywood is playing on all cylinders.

Overall, however, I side with the trade vetoers. Here are my reasons:

If/when Gil comes back, AD will head to the bench in all likelihood. That would provide a bigger bench lift, IMHO, than sending Haywood to the bench in favor of Brand. Or, if we were to start Brand alongside Haywood and bench Stevenson, our frontcourt (BH, EB, and AJ) becomes slow and unwieldy.
Gil is trying to micromanage a pretty common NBA injury, whereas Brand is attempting a miraculous comeback from an Achilles blowout; a historically career-altering, and sometimes career-ending, injury. It would be a serious bummer to make this trade, only to find out afterwards that Elton Brand can no longer jump.
If Brendan pouts when Etan earns minutes, what is he going to do when he has to compete with someone w/ all-star talent (I'm sorry Etan, but the closest you'll ever get to the all-star game is on the X-box).
The transition period would be much shorter with Gilbert. The same "fitting in" issues apply to both players, but at least Gil knows his teammates and the coaching staff.
After watching 2 of the past 3 opposing centers smoke us (Big Z and Bogut), I'm not sure I want to trade Thomas.

by jvflail on Jan 29, 2008 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

All good

Except I have to disagree with the last statement.

"After watching 2 of the past 3 opposing centers smoke us (Big Z and Bogut), I'm not sure I want to trade Thomas."

I'd say this instead:

"After watching 2 of the past 3 opposing centers smoke us (Big Z and Bogut), I'm sure I want to trade Thomas"

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 29, 2008 1:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thomas for Brand?

Just kidding.

You're right about Brand's injury, but he's also in no way a center - we've been sippin' EJ's Kool-Aid a little too much if we think Brand's gonna replace Haywood. He'd take Jamison's spot, so its a broke play if we keep Jamison.

The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.

by mamemimo on Jan 29, 2008 9:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you kidding me?

Elton Brands jumpers are all 12 feet and in, if you watch Elton Brand play he is CLEARLY one of the very best lowpost players in the NBA on offense. He is an absolute terror down there and is unstoppable, commands a double-team every time. Period.

80% are jumpers but all of those come from 10 feet in unless he's shooting the 15 footer on a face-up (Which he is money on), all coming from post up situations...... he has some of the very best lowpost moves in the league, he is a BEAST on offense and very very good on defense.

That 80% are jumpers comment is so skewed, anyone that watches him play can tell you right away that he is a pure low-post monster.

by billy332 on Jan 29, 2008 7:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Billy

I appreciate your enthusiasm, but please be more civil in the future. We try not to use phrases like "are you kidding me," or "what are you talking about" here.

Elton Brand is extremely productive, but he has never really been a classic low-post player. Perhaps his jumpers are not the three-pointers than Antawn takes, but they're still jumpers, and seeing as he's coming off reconstructive knee surgery, he'll probably be shooting even more jumpers instead of exploding to the basket. This has been his story his entire career, and while it's certainly not a bad thing (David West does the same things too, and he's quite a monster), it's not like he's going to suddenly bring a totally new dimension to this team. Carlos Boozer is the easiest comparison to Brand, but only 55 percent of Boozer's shots are jumpers. That number, and Brand's 70 percent (not 80 percent) are not estimates...they're actual numbers according to that 82games link.

I think, in a vacuum, Brand holds more value than Arenas because he's big and plays both ends of the floor, but the problem is we don't make trades in a vacuum. Say you trade Arenas for Brand. Where does Brand play? Do you move Butler to the shooting guard, and bench your best perimeter defender (Stevenson). Wouldn't you then have to move Jamison to small forward, and take him away from the basket, where he has been much more effective this season? Finally, if you trade Arenas, you move Daniels to point guard, which I suppose is not so terrible for right now, but you're leaving an awfully short window, seeing as AD is getting into his mid-30s. And considering the emphasis on getting younger in the last few seasons by retooling the bench, a move to trade for Brand seems counterintuitive.

So again, I say no on Elton Brand.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 30, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Prada makes a good point

The Stevenson signing, while done for value and chemistry reasons, effectively hamstrings us in a number of ways. If Gil were to leave, the team is still left with years worth of Stevenson (and Haywood for that matter) which leaves the only positions available for upgrade/downgrade at PG and PF. Assuming (for the sake of the the hypothetical situation outlined in the thread) that Gil leaves, the best possible situation would be to resign Jamison and the make a couple of peanut value signings like Nelson to fill the PG void (though I hate his game)and pick up another shrewd veteran.

I think (and this is a complete out of left field guess) Ernie's plan is to wait until Blatche develops into "Amare-lite," divest the team of Brendan and Etan, and really run with the whole Phoenix East comparison. I don't know if that would be effective, but if that is indeed the way the team is moving, the most sense would be to resign Gil and Antawn, and attempt to invest in Barbosa type player who can play a hybrid PG/SG/SF.

It is ALWAYS Roger Mason Jr. time.

by LadellforLife on Jan 30, 2008 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs