Competition Discussion: Boston
The season is still two months away, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little). We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else. In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next month or so. We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z. Today's team: Boston.

Last Year's Record: 24-58
In: Kevin Garnett (trade), Ray Allen (trade), Eddie House (free agent), Scott Pollard (free agent), Reggie Miller (just kidding), Gabe Pruitt (draft), Glen Davis (draft)
Out: Al Jefferson (trade), Wally Sczcerbiak (trade), Delonte West (trade), Ryan Gomes (trade), Gerald Green (trade), Sebastian Telfair (trade), Allan Ray (free agent), Theo Ratliff's contract (trade)
Projected Starting Lineup: Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins
Bench (in no particular order): Nobody. Just kidding. In actuality: Gabe Pruitt, Eddie House, Tony Allen, Brian Scalabrine, Leon Powe, Jackie Manual, Brandon Wallace, Scott Pollard, Glen Davis.
So what do we think their record will be? Can the Big 3 coexist? Can they carry a putrid bench? Will it matter that Rajon Rondo is a mostly untested starting point guard? What happens when people get hurt? Can Doc Rivers manage three players as poorly as he manages 12?
For obvious reasons, I think we're talking about this team too much, but they will be very good. I know, I know, no depth, oldish starters, but Garnett, Pierce, and Allen still have something left. All three were hurt last year, but Garnett and Pierce's injuries don't count; their teams were tanking. Allen's the only one I'm a bit worried about, but with Pierce and Garnett there, he won't have to do as much. There won't be any chemistry issues here. Garnett has consistently deferred to teammates in the fourth quarter, and Allen and Pierce have starred with two of the league's biggest chuckers as teammates (Antoine Walker and Glenn Robinson). Hate to say it, but they're better than the Wizards.
But I don't think they're much better, because they absolutely have nothing behind the Big 3. Rondo's pretty good, but I'm not sure he'll be able to function off the ball all that well. I imagine we'll see more of Eddie House in there with Pierce as a point forward than anyone imagines. Also, as much as LOY'S Place still believes, Kendrick Perkins isn't going to work in the middle. Two years ago, he was a promising big man with a nice contract, but his numbers were way down across the board last year, and his propensity for fouling (5.4 fouls/40 last year) is really going to hurt. That's why I can't believe they let Ryan Gomes leave. They could start Perkins and play Gomes down the stretch in a small lineup with Pierce and Garnett, and it would work out well because of Garnett's length. Finally, as good as Garnett is, he's become mostly a perimeter player at this point, leaving them without a back-to-the-basket scorer, which will be essential if they are to use Ray Allen effectively.
All in all, I say 50-32 and a second-round playoff exit. What say you?
[Image via Sportslogos.net]
Update [2007-8-25 17:30:44 by Pradamaster]: Add James Posey to that bench. The veteran forward has reportedly signed with the Celtics for the remainder of their MLE (2 years/7.5 million). I like the move, although I wonder where he'll get his minutes with Pierce and Ray Ray occupying the wings.
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52-30
I'm not convinced
Then again, I hate the Celtics so maybe its just my bias.
First impressions..
Each of the new "big 3" will probably miss 5-10 games each for maintenance type injuries.
Allen's scoring will go down.
Pierce's scoring will go up
Garnett's will slightly dip. He'll have massive rebounding #'s though.
Rondo will play like what he is, a first-year starter at the point. He's shown flashes, but nothing that looks like it could hold up over an entire season (PER is a GREAT indicator of that).
Look for Tony Allen as the X-Factor for them; his rehab efforts may bolster this team an extra 5-10 games, he was quite underrated last season (prior to injury).
I'd put it at 51-31, 3rd seed in an improved Eastern Conference.
Dipset.
Not sure I'm buying it
I'm leaning toward major disappointment. Teams tend to take a while to gel, and it seems like by the time this group does, it's 30-something stars are going to be over the hill. Especially since the KG-Pierce-Allen trio is likely to log major minutes, as there's no one much behind them to help. On nights when one of the stars is on fire, they'll be tough, but even then, a backdoor pass will zip out of bounds, or the other team will win a loose ball they shouldn't because the Celtics don't quite have it together as a team, and they'll drop one they shouldn't. Then another, then some more. As the losses pile up, so will the frustration, then the desperation, making things even more difficult. They'll still have 3 HOFers on the roster, so they'll make the playoffs, but it'll be limping in at 41-41 or so.
The other scenario relies on KG. FreeDarko made the case recently that KG isn't so much of a star player as he is the most extraordinarily talented roleplayer in NBA history (Jake linked to the post, I think, because it mentioned Antawn Jamison in a similar role). He's just not the guy who's gonna be your crunch-time scorer that you expect superstars to be, but he's so good at EVERYTHING else that he makes the game much easier for his teammates, especially if one (or two of them, in this case) can fill the void as clutch scorers.
Look at KG's best year in Minny. He did it all, but when the game was on the line, Sam Cassell was the guy who made sure the Wolves got the hoop they needed. Boston can get a similar vibe going, only with Pierce and Allen representing a major upgrade from Sam-I-am. If that's how they roll, it won't matter how anemic the bench is, how washed up Posey is or how clueless Kendrick Perkins is, the Celts will own the East. I still think they'll fall to whoever wins the West, but it'll be 54-28 and the Eastern Conference title.
by Vanilla Gorilla on Aug 27, 2007 3:56 AM EDT reply actions
Paul Pierce is a HOFer?
Excited
by Vanilla Gorilla on Aug 27, 2007 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Two seperate predictions:
Assuming one big injury (knocking someone out about 20 games): 41-41
My main problem with this team is the lack of point guard. Rondo's got potential, but he's definitely NOT a starting point guard in this league yet. Plus, Doc Rivers is the coach. Sure, they've got three All-Stars, but who's gonna get him the ball?
This is a team that has a bench so thin that I can see them having the exact same year we did last year.

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