Its not the defense

by hotplate on Jul 9, 2007 5:10 PM EDT

Guess I'm getting tired of all of the moaning and groaning about improving our defense. Yes, we play lousy defense. But when I watched the games that we lost, I was always much more frustrated with the offense.

There were major stretches where we couldn't score. While it is often said that the Wizards have major firepower and "can score", if you look closely, you'll see the firepower consists of the Big 3 and the only time any of the others could score was on the fast break. As I watched the losses, I noticed that there were very few 125-121 losses. Instead most were of the 95-89 variety. In other words, it wasn't the defense letting us down, it was the offense.
So I decided to take a look at the numbers and see if this was in fact true. Since the team ended at 41-41, the comparisons between wins and losses was easy. Here it is:
In 41 wins, the Wizards averaged 112.7 points. The opponents averaged 103.4
In 41 losses, the Wizards averaged 96.0 points. The opponents averaged 106.3.

So the difference in points allowed between wins and losses was only 2.9 points per game.
The difference in points scored between wins and losses was a whopping 16.7 points per game.
The defense, such as it was, was consistent. It was the offense that proved to be the determining factor.

Our most successful month was December. Our record was 12-4. Did we play better defense? I'm not sure. I do know that in those 16 games, we gave up 1772 points for an average of 110.75 per game.
Contrast that with April in which we went 3-8. In that month our opponents averaged only 101.2 points per game.

In December, I stayed up until 2 AM on work nights to watch the west coast swing. In April I had no interest in watching the team and couldn't give my tickets away.

We lost the games in which we couldn't score points. If defense truly was the problem, would we have floundered when Jamison went down? Truth is, the drop off in offense was far greater than the improvement on defense . We need more guys who can shoot and more guys who can score. We should not attempt to become the Pistons. Our guys can't play that way and its awful to watch. I'd love to have Lee Humphrey come in and take Roger Mason's spot. His defense probably will be awful. But for 12 minutes a game, he can stand out at the 3 point line and catch passes from Gilbert after a drive or on a break and draiin the 3. I love the idea of Nick Young starting alongside of the big 3, hitting mid range jumpers and finishing on the break. I hope O Pec's jumper is as sweet as they say and that Blatche can clean up all of the garbage underneath while converting a bunch of highlight reel dunks trailing on the fast break. I'd love to have JCN coming off of the bench providing some scoring punch. This is how we'll win games. Not by becoming the Pistons Lite. And it will be a lot more fun.

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

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the numbers look good but...

You cannot win in the playoffs by simply outscoring teams. Look at the past few champions, SA, Miami and Detroit. They are great defensive teams. Phoenix, the best offensive team in the league for the past 2 years still hasn't been able to make the nba finals. We are not going to become the "pistons lite" like you said. Our big three are too good on offense to allow us to slow the ball down and our personel are completely different. But if we cut down on points given up by getting a solid defender in the middle and improving our defense on the wing, we WILL have postseason success.

To improve the offense would be a waste of time. We have a great offense and just because we averaged 96 points per game (still good) in losses does not make our offense the problem. I feel like you are looking into these numbers too much. They simply state that our defense was terrible all the time. A big time defender like Camby or even a guy in the Raja Bell or Bruce Bowen mold would help us not only improve on our 41 wins but let us get to the conference or NBA finals and actually acheive some success for once.

by finkad01 on Jul 8, 2007 5:39 PM EDT reply actions

the point of playing good defense...

is so you can win when you dont play your best offense

by Wooz on Jul 8, 2007 10:31 PM EDT reply actions

Couple reactions

For the record, I don't disagree that getting scoring beyond the Big 3 is important. If that's the major point you were trying to make, I agree with it 100%. The injuries this year proved that. But I disagree that improving offense must come at the expense of improving the defense. You have to defend people to win anything in this league.

I think you're making a mistake many make, and that is looking far too much into points allowed. It's a very flawed stat that doesn't give you a very good idea of offensive and defensive strength. During that great run in December, the Wizards were playing at a faster tempo than at any other time, so, with more possessions, they'll naturally give up more points. (This is not to say the defense was good then, but the offense was so historically incredible that it didn't matter). In April, without their Big 3, the Wizards played at an extremely slow pace, which is why both their scoring and their opponents' scoring averages were down. It had very little to do with a change in the defense or the offense. It's just that, with fewer possessions, there are fewer chances to score more points.

A much better way of determining offensive and defensive strength is to regulate all numbers per 100 possessions, so pace factor is taken out. Here's where you can find that. (Any questions, ask me).

Detroit, a team you referenced, has actually become a more offensive-oriented team under Flip Saunders. They're offensive efficiency (points/100 possessions) is 6th in the league at 110.6, while their defense is also 6th in the league. They play at the slowest average pace in the league, which is why it looks like they suck offensively. San Antonio is very similar; they're 4th in efficiency despite low scoring numbers. You see a similar effect with Phoenix, albeit in the opposite direction. They play at the league's fastest pace, yet they rank a respectable 13th in defensive efficiency. They can defend you if need be.

Over the last three years, the gap between the Wizards' offensive and defensive efficiencies has widened. In 2004/05, they were 10th in OE and 19th in DE. In 2005/06, they were 7th in OE and 23rd in DE. This past year, even with all the injuries, they were 5th in OE and 28th in DE. Total point differential (per 100 possessions) is widely agreed to explain around 95 percent of basketball success, and looking at those numbers, it's not hard to understand why this team's record has been right around .500 for three years.

What I think happened in those 95-89 games you mentioned is that the Wizards were lulled into playing at a slow tempo. Since they have no speedy point guard (Gilbert doesn't count), the best way the Wizards speed up the game is when they use the other team's tempo against them. Against teams like San Antonio who are too disciplined to fall into that trap, they struggle severely. The scores may look low, but it's because the game is played at a slow pace.

You can't get too much better than 5th in offensive efficiency, especially with teams like Phoenix in front of you. But you definitely can get better than 28th in defensive efficiency. Hell, they were at 19th a couple years ago even with no good defenders. If the Wizards maintain their offensive output and increase their defensive efficiency by even 10 spots, that might be 10 wins right there.

So no matter how it happens, the defense has to improve. That's not to say that the offense could be better -- it can. But improving the defense can do so much more for the team's success.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 8, 2007 11:17 PM EDT reply actions

improved defense

Absolutely, I'd like to get better on defense. Just not at the price of sacrificing our up tempo style. I don't think there's either a "stopper" to be found coming out of the college ranks nor an available shot blocking center that can be obtained as a free agent. No way will we get Camby or Chandler. Guess my point is that we've got to improve the defense of those guys that we've got. The big 3 are going to get their minutes and there's only so much the other 2 on the floor can do.
I think the biggest key to improving the D is to get Gilbert to make an attempt to guard his man. Too often, he is beaten and the centers have to try to cover for him. And when it happens, its the centers who get the blame.
But we have too many players who simply can't shoot. Hayes, Ruffin, Taylor, Thomas, Haywood and Daniels are hard pressed to make anything beyond 5 feet. I know that Stephenson flirted with 50% but he's a below average jump shooter for a starting 2. Its frustrating to see Chris Paul dish to Mark Jackson for a successful open 15 jumper and then see Gilbert attempting the same thing to Micheal Ruffin or Jarvis Hayes.
Shooting is an underrated skill and its important that our acquisitions have the ability to hit an open 12 to 15 foot shot.

by hotplate on Jul 9, 2007 7:44 AM EDT reply actions

I 100% agree with this.

When are "best" shooter off the bench in Jarvis Hayes, of course your offense is going to have problems.

Hopefully this year Nick Young and O-Pec are going to give us some good shooting. Also, Songaila was great at the pick-and-pop, so he should be able to give us some more "Mark Jackson-style" production as he gets to work with Gilbert more.

by mamemimo on Jul 9, 2007 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Offense

Better shooting big men and another scorer might win us 10 more games and get us a better seed in the playoffs, but to ever realistically have a shot at the title, defense must improve. You cant just outscore everyone. In the playoffs, eventually youre going to face a team that can stop you from scoring as much, and you have to grind it out and stop them from scoring. Thats why teams like the spurs and pistons keep getting far in the playoffs consistantly and why teams like the suns, wizards, nuggets, etc.. keep getting bounced early.

by Wooz on Jul 9, 2007 11:57 AM EDT reply actions