It's just the beginning

by Pradamaster on Jun 27, 2007 5:13 PM EDT in Draft

I've never been one to place much value in newspaper columnists, but the Post's Mike Wise is an exception. Today, he came out with a really poignant column, emphasizing the importance of this year's offseason for this team.

Ernie Grunfeld has less than 48 hours to make a decision, and it has little to do with picking 16th tomorrow. The NBA draft is small change next to the real dilemma.

Grunfeld has to ask himself whether he truly believes the Wizards could have replaced Cleveland in the NBA Finals if Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler had been healthy. That means not drastically altering the current roster.

Or does Grunfeld see what most saw, the team that was slip-sliding away at the end of the season, whose defensive breakdowns made it impossible for the Wizards to contend, much less get out of the first round?

Which end of the argument the franchise's architect comes down on -- what Grunfeld decides -- means everything to Washington's future.

It's also not an easy question to answer. On the one hand, this team was in first place in the East as late as February, and that came after a really slow start. They were beating good teams on the road, and nobody was stopping Gilbert and Caron Butler. DeShawn Stevenson was becoming a solid fourth option, and Brendan Haywood was happy and playing well. On the other hand, even while they were winning, the defense wasn't getting any better, the point differential was spotty, and they were getting lucky in close games. Even before Antawn Jamison, Butler, and Arenas went down, the team was fading, and a first-round victory was by no means a guarantee, as much as delusional fans claim it was. Improvement should come either way, but marginal improvement may not be enough at this point.

Ernie's default position at this point may be to not do much. He addressed reporters yesterday, and gave an exclusive interview to Comcast SportsNet. In both cases, he stressed that this team was close to being a bona fide contender.

"We feel good about where we are and what we have," Grunfeld said. "We think that we're very close to being able to compete with anyone. We showed that last year."

Which is why I'm a little concerned with these comments he made to the Washington Times.

Despite the perceived depth of the tomorrow's NBA Draft, new Washington Wizards president Ernie Grunfeld says the player he selects with the 16th pick probably will help the team later rather than sooner.

"It's very seldom you get a player at 16 that is going to come in and help you right away," said Grunfeld, who yesterday received his new title as part of an ongoing reorganization within parent company Washington Sports and Entertainment. "The picks that usually help a team are the top five through eight, and those teams are not playoff teams.

"When you are a veteran playoff team and you have the core of your team coming back, it's going to be difficult for any player picked in the late teens to come in and break the lineup."

It goes on to say that both the Georgia Tech guys -- Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young -- are right on the team's radar. If I have one preference in this draft, it's that neither of those guys are the pick. There are tons of guys who can help now, and if this team really is that close, they could use this deep draft to add a role player that could be the final piece. Crittenton and Young are both extremely raw, and they wouldn't contribute much next year. Neither are good passers or defenders, so neither really helps to solve any of the Wizards' problems. They may very well become excellent players, but the Wizards system isn't the place to develop them.

But there are two silver linings here. First, according to Chad Ford, Young will be picked by the Hornets with the 13th pick. With a point guard like Chris Paul giving him the ball, Young should develop much more effectively. It makes sense for the Hornets to pick him if Nick Young is off the board.

Second, this is Ernie Grunfeld we're talking about. The man knows how to build good teams. He took the Knicks to the NBA Finals, and if it weren't for Michael Jordan, they could easily have won it all. He took Milwaukee to one game from the NBA Finals, even though they had no good big men and lacked depth beyond their Big 3. With all due respect to blog friend Kelly Dwyer (easily the best writer at SI), he's better than the 11th best GM in the league. I'd place him behind only R.C. Buford, Donnie Nelson, Bryan Colangelo, John Paxson, Kevin O'Connell, and maybe Kevin Pritchard and Sam Presti. There are few GMs in this league that I'd trust to figure something out more than Ernie Grunfeld.

Like Wise said, this is a crossroads for this team, and the draft is just the beginning. But even though I may disagree slightly with Ernie's draft strategy, it's a hell of a lot better than Wes Unseld. Frankly, it's a hell of a lot better than anyone else that's been here. Wizards fans should be counting their blessings.

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Comments

Yes and No

When Ernie says that #16 doesn't usually come in and make a big impact he's correct. Just look at the #16's you listed below.

On the other hand: This is a talent-shallow team that desperately needs offense, shot blocking, rebounding and playmaking from its bench, they could use more of most of that from the starters too.

Except at the 4 where AJ, Songalia, Blatche and Pech most naturally fit, this team is ready made for a rookie impact. So while Ernie downplays the impact of #16 I'm still convinced that #47 could play decent minutes should EJ allow it.

As for Wise, it was a good read. But the parsing language around Gilbert's leaving bugs me. Every writer struggles to find their own angle on it. Wise's "If, at the end of next season, he feels the Wizards are not demonstrably closer to winning a title than they are at this minute, he would be foolish to stay."

Really? Foolish? Isn't Gilbert one of the guys pushing to give this core another chance? Isn't he counted among those who don't want Jamison (aka The Chip) moved? Why would staying be foolish? The East will still be easier than the West. Washington will offer him substantially more than another team can and even that much more than any playoff team can. After all, what star in Arenas' league has turned down the mega offer to look around? Contrast that list with the list of stars who sign the mega deal and crowbar their way out later if they feel they have to... no contest. This is all about money. And its money the Wizards will gladly pay.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 27, 2007 9:25 PM EDT 0 recs

There aren't any superstars on that list

But there are a couple decent rotation guys, or guys that were decent rotation guys for a while. This team has too many holes to wait on another project.

I agree with the second part of your comment though. Remember, however, that Gilbert is crazy, and you never know what he's thinking. It all makes sense that he re-signs...which is why there's a little cause for concern. Not much, I agree. But there is a little.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Jun 27, 2007 11:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

Crazy Gilbert

I think Gilbert's rep for being "crazy" is somewhat overblown. he talks and talks yeah. And his details aren't always on target (Marvin Brando) but I rarely here "crazy". I think thats the way a lazy media has chosen to package him. I feel like I'm channeling Dave Chappelle here, but why does an outspoken, articulate, socially aware man have to be crazy just because of nicknames and video games? We beg athletes for personality and then we get a true gift and we immediately marginalize him through "crazy".

When I read his blog on why he is opting out I didn't read crazy. I read the writings of an intelligent businessman. He broke it down by percentage and then he broke it down for the Wizards (using the anti-Juwan example). He knows the CBA inside out.

I know Zards fans will worry, can't help that. But I won't. After all, probably the "craziest" decision he's made was picking DC in the first place over hometown LA. that turned out just fine.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 28, 2007 10:10 AM EDT 0 recs