Open thread: Regular season game 4

The essentials:
Wizards (0-3) at Nets (3-1)
7:30 p.m.
IZOD Center
Comcast Sports Net
Last year:
November 12: Nets 105, Wizards 93 (OT).
February 27: Nets 113, Wizards 101.
April 7: Nets 120, Wizards 114 (OT).
April 10: Nets 96, Wizards 92.
Notable Nets numbers this season (pound the salt):
19th in expected winning percentage (.377).
23rd in pace factor (89.6 possessions per game).
25th in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (98.8).
13th in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (102.4).
Notable Nets numbers last season
T14 in expected winning percentage (.506).
16th in pace factor (89.9 possessions per game).
15th in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (108.0).
14th in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (107.8).
Key links
Nets Daily.
Hooplah...Nation
Hooplah...Nation blog preview.
Nets Daily blog preview.
Post: Arenas' knee drained
Washington Post Live discusses Gilbert's online popularity
Competition discussion: New Jersey
Starting lineups:
Nets
PG: Jason Kidd.
SG: Vince Carter.
SF: Richard Jefferson.
PF: Nenad Kristic.
C: Jason Collins.
Wizards
PG: Gilbert Arenas.
SG: DeShawn Stevenson.
SF: Caron Butler.
PF: Antawn Jamison.
C: Brendan Haywood.
Tonight's lines:
Wizards at Nets: Nets by 6.
Over/Under on Big 3 scoring: 60.7 points.
Methinks we've had far too much time between games, because while this team has looked very bad in its three losses, there are still 79 games remaining to turn things around. Granted, their offense hasn't looked good since the Arenas injury last year, and their defense, while improved, still allows too many open shots, but I don't see why that's reason to panic or trade Arenas just yet. Remember, Dallas was 0-4 last year, and Chicago is 0-4 this season. It's a long season, folks.
With all that being said, I don't really like this matchup against the Nets. New Jersey beat the Wizards all four times last year, thought only two of those were with Arenas. Their point differential stinks, but it's only because of that 37-point blowout loss to Toronto. Richard Jefferson is healthy and playing well, Jason Kidd is still Jason Kidd, and Antoine Wright has come out of nowhere to provide a spark off the bench.
What scares me most about New Jersey is that they're a jump-shooting team. They were seventh in the league in effective field goal percentage last year, and only finished in the middle of the pack offensively because they were one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league. Jefferson and Carter killed us with threes, and Kidd was even launching and hitting a bunch of them as well. Their frontline poses a difficult matchup too, because they can step out and hit jumpers as well.
Meanwhile, I'm worried about the Wizards offense. Kidd and Jefferson are two of the better perimeter defenders around, and while Jamison poses matchup problems, New Jersey can always go small and play Nachbar on him. Driving to the basket will be key, because the Nets don't have a shotblocker. Jason Collins is solid, but he's not that guy.
I'm not sure how much I'm going to see, because I've got a lot of newspaper things to do, but I'd recommend watching Arenas closely. From what I've heard, draining of fluid in the knee could solve the problem, but it could also only be a temporary solution, like it was for Michael Jordan throughout his Wizards' career. With another game against Denver tomorrow, Eddie Jordan needs to get Arenas' minutes down to 30-35, rather than 40+. Play Antonio Daniels and Roger Mason together, especially when Carter is out of the game, or try giving Nick Young some minutes when needed. Oh, and play Andray Blatche. Please. Jamison and Darius Songaila should never be on the floor at the same time.
This is an open game thread, so question Vince Carter's toughness here.
GO WIZARDS!
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Comments
looking for
by Wooz on Nov 8, 2007 3:56 PM EST 0 recs
if they don't win tonight
I never like the matchup with NJ 'cause they run the same offense, only better thanks to Kidd.
But the fan in me is hoping for some mini-camp magic.
Is this where I'm suppose to say the Wiz and over?
by thebigc1982 on Nov 8, 2007 4:03 PM EST 0 recs
I watched NJ's last game vs. Philly
I also like what thebigc said. NJ owns us because they do what we try to do. That being said, I have a gut feeling that we compete in this one, maybe even pull it out.
by jvflail on Nov 8, 2007 4:12 PM EST 0 recs
Antoine Wright isn't a high school guy
Otherwise, I'm with you on the gut feeling.
by Pradamaster on
Nov 8, 2007 4:17 PM EST
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Wiz and Over
On a related note, look for the team to win this one while Haywood puts up a 7 point, 8 rebound effort. This will let me start spouting stats like "the wizards are 0-3 when Brendan Haywood puts up a double-double. The are undefeated when he doesn't. Phone it in, Brendan!"
I have spent the entire week constructing a dataset on blogroll link patterns. Start expecting a lot of statistical humor from me in the coming weeks as I slowly go completely unhinged.
The Wizards: Ready to Jack Up a Contested Jumper (That's the new team motto, right?...)
by sierradave on Nov 8, 2007 4:14 PM EST 0 recs
He did?
by jvflail on Nov 8, 2007 4:21 PM EST 0 recs
ZING!
by Pradamaster on
Nov 8, 2007 4:23 PM EST
up
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Nets and Over
by mamemimo on Nov 8, 2007 4:29 PM EST 0 recs
Nets and Under
Has anyone noticed the records of the teams we've played so far? Pacers, 3-1, Celtics, 3-0, Magic, 4-1, and now Nets 3-1. OK, OK, I know this is a dubious statistic to be pulling out at this part of the season, but it helps just a little, right?
by Aldo on Nov 8, 2007 5:17 PM EST 0 recs
Picks
Over
Wil Wheaton sucks.
by JakeTheSnake on Nov 8, 2007 5:54 PM EST 0 recs
Best Quote Ever
Steve Buckhantz, you are a master of words.
by Aldo on Nov 8, 2007 7:51 PM EST 0 recs
The optimist in me:
The pessimist in me:
This lead will look a whole lot less impressive once they blow it.
by JakeTheSnake on Nov 8, 2007 8:04 PM EST 0 recs
27-15
by joshp on Nov 8, 2007 8:07 PM EST 0 recs
Who's the yokel...
p.s. I was the yokel.
p.p.s. N. Young's move at the end of the quarter was simply amazing.
by jvflail on Nov 8, 2007 8:07 PM EST 0 recs
Blatche!
I like the motion on offense so far tonight, and great to see Gil hitting his shots.
by sierradave on Nov 8, 2007 8:10 PM EST 0 recs
We need a WIn
by Mac G on Nov 8, 2007 8:39 PM EST 0 recs
Brendan isn't producing either
by sierradave on
Nov 8, 2007 8:52 PM EST
up
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eeeeek
by joshp on Nov 8, 2007 8:39 PM EST 0 recs
Neither team wants to win this one
by Mac G on Nov 8, 2007 9:15 PM EST 0 recs
Man oh Man
by Mac G on Nov 8, 2007 9:51 PM EST 0 recs
Another GW, brewing?
by Mac G on Nov 8, 2007 9:56 PM EST 0 recs
0-4
I wonder what Kidd and Gil are talking about?
by Mac G on Nov 8, 2007 9:59 PM EST 0 recs
Im done
by kdp922 on Nov 8, 2007 10:00 PM EST 0 recs
Ummm...
by Aldo on
Nov 8, 2007 10:03 PM EST
up
0 recs
Ronny Thompson?
by Mac G on Nov 8, 2007 10:05 PM EST 0 recs
Wow
Anyone want to recap it? Write a diary, and I'll promote it.
by Pradamaster on Nov 8, 2007 10:15 PM EST 0 recs
Horrid Last Possession
by And None on Nov 8, 2007 11:02 PM EST 0 recs
I did
:P
by JakeTheSnake on
Nov 8, 2007 11:45 PM EST
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Wait
by sirnanzy on
Nov 9, 2007 12:22 AM EST
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Oh ya
You don't want him to torture you by having to watch him and Mgloire in a free throw shooting contest
by sirnanzy on
Nov 9, 2007 12:25 AM EST
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Oh no
Think about it...
by JakeTheSnake on
Nov 9, 2007 12:46 AM EST
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wow
by finkad01 on
Nov 9, 2007 2:48 AM EST
up
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Team Grades
DS: F-, In the NBA, shooting guards who can't shoot don't last long.
CB: B+, 7 steals is amazing and his jumper and free throws were reliable, but he also jacked 2 3s unnecessarily at pivotal times.
AJ: A, he must have heard me call him a schuckster. Great game from Jamison, but for every one of these, we'll also get a 6-20 debacle.
BH: D, his lay-up was exciting, but other than that, his bid for the all-star team died against the Nets.
AD: C-, his 3 was nice, but he played hack-a-Vince 40 feet from the hoop entirely too much.
Blatche: B-, I like his high-post game. He takes it strong. The team just seems to have more energy when he's out there.
Songaila: C, he helped some in the paint, but Boki Nachbar ate him alive.
Nick Young: C, that reverse lay-up at the end of Q1 was the most athletic move the Wiz have made all year. That air-ball was the worst play the Wiz have made all year.
Roger Mason: F, for a guy who hangs his hat on his 3-point marksmanship, missing 3 3s in a row doesn't bode well. Roger, Tim Legler's very disappointed in you.
by jvflail on Nov 9, 2007 11:25 AM EST 0 recs
SORRY ALDO
There's also a thing called missing, fouling, and hoping they miss one of two free throws for a game-tying three.
The thought process that down by 2, you hold to take the last shot is one of the stupdiest things in the history of basketball. Tie the game and go from there. You don't wait until it's too late to put back up an offensive rebound.
Where did you learn about basketball?
by kdp922 on Nov 9, 2007 2:30 PM EST 0 recs
Whoa, whoa
by Pradamaster on
Nov 9, 2007 2:37 PM EST
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0 recs
I'm Curious About This
So now I'm curious, what is the conventional wisdom when in this situation? Do most coaches advise what kdp922 says, or what Eddie did?
by cuppettcj on
Nov 9, 2007 3:37 PM EST
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Whoa dude
By the way, I think your predictions are amazing. If New Jersey, New York and Orlando play 84 games each, I think you're definitely right.
by Aldo on
Nov 9, 2007 6:12 PM EST
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Okay
by Pradamaster on
Nov 9, 2007 7:14 PM EST
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Prada-
Im sorry, but there is no coach in their right mind that waits for the last shot when down by 2. You don't do it. Why handcuff yourself to only one opportunity?
You hold til the last shot when you are TIED and you do not want to give the opponent a shot at squaring it back up. When you are down, you attempt to score as quickly as possible to give your team as many possessions as possible to tie it. It's common sense and I can't believe anyone would attempt to argue the merit of the opposite based on the thought process of 'if u score too quick' you give the other team a chance to score after you. STOP SOMEONE! If you aren't shooting 60% or better, the simple percentages call for you to give yourself enough time for more then one opportunity.
The only reason to hold for a last shot is because you have become addicted to hitting the buzzer beater and you want to be on sportscenter. that play was all Gilbert's ego and the entire wizards brass basically said the same thing after the game in pseudo-defending Gil's decision.
to paraphrase ernie 'we trust gilberts decision whether to go for it with 12 seconds left or to wait until 3 seconds and we'll trust him with that decision everytime'. you don't see the meaning between the lines?
As for the predictions in my sig, you got me. i miscalculated. congrats on figuring that out.
by kdp922 on Nov 10, 2007 5:12 AM EST 0 recs
It's okay
by Pradamaster on
Nov 10, 2007 12:35 PM EST
up
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