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Open thread: Regular season game 4


The essentials:
Wizards (0-3) at Nets (3-1)
7:30 p.m.
IZOD Center
Comcast Sports Net

Last year:
November 12: Nets 105, Wizards 93 (OT).
February 27: Nets 113, Wizards 101.
April 7: Nets 120, Wizards 114 (OT).
April 10: Nets 96, Wizards 92.

Notable Nets numbers this season (pound the salt):
19th in expected winning percentage (.377).
23rd in pace factor (89.6 possessions per game).
25th in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (98.8).
13th in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (102.4).

Notable Nets numbers last season
T14 in expected winning percentage (.506).
16th in pace factor (89.9 possessions per game).
15th in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (108.0).
14th in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (107.8).

Key links
Nets Daily.
Hooplah...Nation
Hooplah...Nation blog preview.
Nets Daily blog preview.
Post: Arenas' knee drained
Washington Post Live discusses Gilbert's online popularity
Competition discussion: New Jersey

Starting lineups:
Nets
PG: Jason Kidd.
SG: Vince Carter.
SF: Richard Jefferson.
PF: Nenad Kristic.
C: Jason Collins.

Wizards
PG: Gilbert Arenas.
SG: DeShawn Stevenson.
SF: Caron Butler.
PF: Antawn Jamison.
C: Brendan Haywood.

Tonight's lines:
Wizards at Nets: Nets by 6.
Over/Under on Big 3 scoring: 60.7 points.

Methinks we've had far too much time between games, because while this team has looked very bad in its three losses, there are still 79 games remaining to turn things around.  Granted, their offense hasn't looked good since the Arenas injury last year, and their defense, while improved, still allows too many open shots, but I don't see why that's reason to panic or trade Arenas just yet.  Remember, Dallas was 0-4 last year, and Chicago is 0-4 this season.  It's a long season, folks.

With all that being said, I don't really like this matchup against the Nets.  New Jersey beat the Wizards all four times last year, thought only two of those were with Arenas.  Their point differential stinks, but it's only because of that 37-point blowout loss to Toronto.  Richard Jefferson is healthy and playing well, Jason Kidd is still Jason Kidd, and Antoine Wright has come out of nowhere to provide a spark off the bench.

What scares me most about New Jersey is that they're a jump-shooting team.  They were seventh in the league in effective field goal percentage last year, and only finished in the middle of the pack offensively because they were one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league.  Jefferson and Carter killed us with threes, and Kidd was even launching and hitting a bunch of them as well.  Their frontline poses a difficult matchup too, because they can step out and hit jumpers as well.  

Meanwhile, I'm worried about the Wizards offense.  Kidd and Jefferson are two of the better perimeter defenders around, and while Jamison poses matchup problems, New Jersey can always go small and play Nachbar on him.  Driving to the basket will be key, because the Nets don't have a shotblocker.  Jason Collins is solid, but he's not that guy.  

I'm not sure how much I'm going to see, because I've got a lot of newspaper things to do, but I'd recommend watching Arenas closely.  From what I've heard, draining of fluid in the knee could solve the problem, but it could also only be a temporary solution, like it was for Michael Jordan throughout his Wizards' career.  With another game against Denver tomorrow, Eddie Jordan needs to get Arenas' minutes down to 30-35, rather than 40+.  Play Antonio Daniels and Roger Mason together, especially when Carter is out of the game, or try giving Nick Young some minutes when needed.  Oh, and play Andray Blatche.  Please.  Jamison and Darius Songaila should never be on the floor at the same time.

This is an open game thread, so question Vince Carter's toughness here.

GO WIZARDS!

0 recs | Comment 44 comments

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looking for
win or loss, ima be looking to see the intensity arenas is bringing(i think hes been playing a little lackadaisical), jamison to stop chucking shots, and for BLATCHE TO GET SOME PT!! Nets have some big guys but none are bigger than blatche and so theres matchups galore that he could and should see time against.

by Wooz on Nov 8, 2007 3:56 PM EST   0 recs

if they don't win tonight
We might need a "Who Will Win First" poll featuring Chicago, Miami, and us.

I never like the matchup with NJ 'cause they run the same offense, only better thanks to Kidd.

But the fan in me is hoping for some mini-camp magic.

Is this where I'm suppose to say the Wiz and over?

by thebigc1982 on Nov 8, 2007 4:03 PM EST   0 recs

I watched NJ's last game vs. Philly
Unlike us, they play their outa-high-school phenom (Antoine Wright) and he's giving them quality minutes. If Blatche can match or contribute more than Wright, we'll have a chance.

I also like what thebigc said. NJ owns us because they do what we try to do. That being said, I have a gut feeling that we compete in this one, maybe even pull it out.

by jvflail on Nov 8, 2007 4:12 PM EST   0 recs

Antoine Wright isn't a high school guy
He went to Texas A&M for three years.

Otherwise, I'm with you on the gut feeling.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Nov 8, 2007 4:17 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Wiz and Over
But that is so totally wishful thinking.

On a related note, look for the team to win this one while Haywood puts up a 7 point, 8 rebound effort.  This will let me start spouting stats like "the wizards are 0-3 when Brendan Haywood puts up a double-double.  The are undefeated when he doesn't.  Phone it in, Brendan!"

I have spent the entire week constructing a dataset on blogroll link patterns.  Start expecting a lot of statistical humor from me in the coming weeks as I slowly go completely unhinged.

The Wizards: Ready to Jack Up a Contested Jumper (That's the new team motto, right?...)

by sierradave on Nov 8, 2007 4:14 PM EST   0 recs

He did?
Isn't Texas A&M easier than high school anyway? (Sorry Aggies, it was just too good to pass up.)

by jvflail on Nov 8, 2007 4:21 PM EST   0 recs

ZING!
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Nov 8, 2007 4:23 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Nets and Over
But we'll see. What's the odds on Jefferson or Carter breaking down in this game? Its been four games, they're about due for an injury.
The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.

by mamemimo on Nov 8, 2007 4:29 PM EST   0 recs

Nets and Under
For the first three games, I picked the Wiz and they lost, so if I pick them to lose they should win.

Has anyone noticed the records of the teams we've played so far?  Pacers, 3-1, Celtics, 3-0, Magic, 4-1, and now Nets 3-1.  OK, OK, I know this is a dubious statistic to be pulling out at this part of the season, but it helps just a little, right?

by Aldo on Nov 8, 2007 5:17 PM EST   0 recs

Picks
Wizards
Over
Wil Wheaton sucks.
Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by JakeTheSnake on Nov 8, 2007 5:54 PM EST   0 recs

picks
nets
under
gman and gwiz should go on tour.

by i love gwiz on Nov 8, 2007 6:14 PM EST   0 recs

Best Quote Ever
"Looks like he's draining more than his knee."

Steve Buckhantz, you are a master of words.

by Aldo on Nov 8, 2007 7:51 PM EST   0 recs

The optimist in me:
The Wizards looked good coming out of the gates!

The pessimist in me:

This lead will look a whole lot less impressive once they blow it.

Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by JakeTheSnake on Nov 8, 2007 8:04 PM EST   0 recs

27-15
after one quarter. good to see gil get off to a fast start, and good to see andray in the game so early

by joshp on Nov 8, 2007 8:07 PM EST   0 recs

Who's the yokel...
pushing the panic button? The Wiz look great!

p.s. I was the yokel.
p.p.s. N. Young's move at the end of the quarter was simply amazing.

by jvflail on Nov 8, 2007 8:07 PM EST   0 recs

Blatche!
5 quick points, drawing two fouls, and that was a SWEET high post spin move.

I like the motion on offense so far tonight, and great to see Gil hitting his shots.

by sierradave on Nov 8, 2007 8:10 PM EST   0 recs

We need a WIn
Jake, you are right, lead down to 4 points. We have been out hustled in the 2nd quarter and no one is attacking the basket. Blatche needs more PT in the 2nd half. Darius and DeShawn have been useless.
What? They don't have TV in the D-League? Don't watch me, watch TV.

by Mac G on Nov 8, 2007 8:39 PM EST   0 recs

Brendan isn't producing either
And they had some good looks on some of those jumpers.  Let's see how they come out to start the 3rd.  I'd rather them up by 5 with some fire in their bellies than up by 12 and complacent, personally...

by sierradave on Nov 8, 2007 8:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

eeeeek
live to play another half. at least we managed to hang onto that lead, barely though

by joshp on Nov 8, 2007 8:39 PM EST   0 recs

Neither team wants to win this one
What? They don't have TV in the D-League? Don't watch me, watch TV.

by Mac G on Nov 8, 2007 9:15 PM EST   0 recs

Man oh Man
Butler just made 2 horrible plays(Bad pass, Bad foul) in a row! Down 6, 1:50 left.
What? They don't have TV in the D-League? Don't watch me, watch TV.

by Mac G on Nov 8, 2007 9:51 PM EST   0 recs

Another GW, brewing?
Tuff Juice came back with 2 big FTs! No one fouled RJ.
What? They don't have TV in the D-League? Don't watch me, watch TV.

by Mac G on Nov 8, 2007 9:56 PM EST   0 recs

Just out of curiosity
What the fuck was that?

by sierradave on Nov 8, 2007 9:58 PM EST   0 recs

0-4
what was that? Attack the Basket!! or pull up from deep,do not dribble into a double team! This game hurts, 0-4 is 0-4.

I wonder what Kidd and Gil are talking about?

What? They don't have TV in the D-League? Don't watch me, watch TV.

by Mac G on Nov 8, 2007 9:59 PM EST   0 recs

Im done
what the hell was he doing? we're down by 2- why are you holding for a last shot? wtf wtf wtf...
07-08 Reg Season Stndgs(predicted 8/6/07) 1 Chi 52-30 2 Was 51-31 3 Cle 50-32 4 Bos/Det 48-34 6 Tor/Mia 47-35 8 NJ 44-40 9 NY/Orl 42-42

by kdp922 on Nov 8, 2007 10:00 PM EST   0 recs

Ummm...
If you don't hold for last shot, you let them hit a game winner.  That part was obvious.  Dribbling into a double team was not a good call though.

by Aldo on Nov 8, 2007 10:03 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ronny Thompson?
Why is he an in studio analyst?
What? They don't have TV in the D-League? Don't watch me, watch TV.

by Mac G on Nov 8, 2007 10:05 PM EST   0 recs

Wow
Glad I missed this one.

Anyone want to recap it?  Write a diary, and I'll promote it.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Nov 8, 2007 10:15 PM EST   0 recs

Horrid Last Possession
24 hrs to shake it off.  78-4, here we come!

by And None on Nov 8, 2007 11:02 PM EST   0 recs

ER...
say.... anyone with Antoine Wright jokes?

by sirnanzy on Nov 8, 2007 11:22 PM EST   0 recs

I did
But Jason said he'd smack me around if I told.

:P

Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by JakeTheSnake on Nov 8, 2007 11:45 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Wait
You mean Jason Collins? What's the difference between Jason Collins and Brendan Haywood tonight?

by sirnanzy on Nov 9, 2007 12:22 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Oh ya
If it's Jason Collins, better not say it

You don't want him to torture you by having to watch him and Mgloire in a free throw shooting contest

by sirnanzy on Nov 9, 2007 12:25 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Oh no
I meant Jason Kidd.

Think about it...

Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by JakeTheSnake on Nov 9, 2007 12:46 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

wow
that was the best shot the wizards (or their fans) took tonight...

by finkad01 on Nov 9, 2007 2:48 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Team Grades
GA: C+, he helped build the lead, disappeared while we lost the lead, reappeared to help us compete in the 4th q, then totally botched the last possession.

DS: F-, In the NBA, shooting guards who can't shoot don't last long.

CB: B+, 7 steals is amazing and his jumper and free throws were reliable, but he also jacked 2 3s unnecessarily at pivotal times.

AJ: A, he must have heard me call him a schuckster. Great game from Jamison, but for every one of these, we'll also get a 6-20 debacle.

BH: D, his lay-up was exciting, but other than that, his bid for the all-star team died against the Nets.

AD: C-, his 3 was nice, but he played hack-a-Vince 40 feet from the hoop entirely too much.

Blatche: B-, I like his high-post game. He takes it strong. The team just seems to have more energy when he's out there.

Songaila: C, he helped some in the paint, but Boki Nachbar ate him alive.

Nick Young: C, that reverse lay-up at the end of Q1 was the most athletic move the Wiz have made all year. That air-ball was the worst play the Wiz have made all year.

Roger Mason: F, for a guy who hangs his hat on his 3-point marksmanship, missing 3 3s in a row doesn't bode well. Roger, Tim Legler's very disappointed in you.

by jvflail on Nov 9, 2007 11:25 AM EST   0 recs

SORRY ALDO
But maybe you haven't noticed that there is a thing called missing the shot, getting the offensive rebound and putting it back in.

There's also a thing called missing, fouling, and hoping they miss one of two free throws for a game-tying three.

The thought process that down by 2, you hold to take the last shot is one of the stupdiest things in the history of basketball. Tie the game and go from there. You don't wait until it's too late to put back up an offensive rebound.

Where did you learn about basketball?

07-08 Reg Season Stndgs(predicted 8/6/07) 1 Chi 52-30 2 Was 51-31 3 Cle 50-32 4 Bos/Det 48-34 6 Tor/Mia 47-35 8 NJ 44-40 9 NY/Orl 42-42

by kdp922 on Nov 9, 2007 2:30 PM EST   0 recs

Whoa, whoa
Keep the personal attacks down, please.  
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Nov 9, 2007 2:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'm Curious About This
I replied to Moonman about this in my "Should Eddie Be Fired?" diary, and I actually defended Eddie's decision on this.  The logic for holding for the last shot when down by two made sense to me at first, but you bring up some interesting points.

So now I'm curious, what is the conventional wisdom when in this situation?  Do most coaches advise what kdp922 says, or what Eddie did?

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Nov 9, 2007 3:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Whoa dude
Think about it.  If you hold for the last shot, you make it and you tie or win; if you miss you lose.  If you don't wait for the last shot: you make it, you give the Nets the last possession and a chance to win, if you miss, you give the Nets a chance to win.  It's really a no brainer to wait for the last shot.  Any team would do the same in that situation.

By the way, I think your predictions are amazing.  If New Jersey, New York and Orlando play 84 games each, I think you're definitely right.

by Aldo on Nov 9, 2007 6:12 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Okay
This is getting nasty too quick.  Both of you, please, cut it out.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Nov 9, 2007 7:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Prada-
Nothings getting nasty- it's just good ole back n forth, at least on my part.

Im sorry, but there is no coach in their right mind that waits for the last shot when down by 2. You don't do it. Why handcuff yourself to only one opportunity?

You hold til the last shot when you are TIED and you do not want to give the opponent a shot at squaring it back up. When you are down, you attempt to score as quickly as possible to give your team as many possessions as possible to tie it. It's common sense and I can't believe anyone would attempt to argue the merit of the opposite based on the thought process of 'if u score too quick' you give the other team a chance to score after you. STOP SOMEONE! If you aren't shooting 60% or better, the simple percentages call for you to give yourself enough time for more then one opportunity.

The only reason to hold for a last shot is because you have become addicted to hitting the buzzer beater and you want to be on sportscenter. that play was all Gilbert's ego and the entire wizards brass basically said the same thing after the game in pseudo-defending Gil's decision.

to paraphrase ernie 'we trust gilberts decision whether to go for it with 12 seconds left or to wait until 3 seconds and we'll trust him with that decision everytime'. you don't see the meaning between the lines?

As for the predictions in my sig, you got me. i miscalculated. congrats on figuring that out.

07-08 Reg Season Stndgs(predicted 8/6/07) 1 Chi 52-30 2 Was 51-31 3 Cle 50-32 4 Bos/Det 48-34 6 Tor/Mia 47-35 8 NJ 44-40 9 NY/Orl 42-42

by kdp922 on Nov 10, 2007 5:12 AM EST   0 recs

It's okay
Just the whole "where did you learn about basketball" comment was unnecessary.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Nov 10, 2007 12:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

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