Open thread: Regular season game 13

by Mike Prada on Nov 24, 2007 4:30 PM EST in Game Threads

The essentials:
Wizards (6-6) at Grizzlies (3-9)
8 p.m.
FedEx Forum
CSN

Last year:
November 23: Grizzlies 95, Wizards 80.
December 26: Wizards 116, Grizzlies 101.

Notable Grizzlies numbers this season (pound the salt):
19th in expected winning percentage (.377).
8th in pace factor (94.4 possessions per game).
11th in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (108.3).
27th in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (112.3).

Notable Grizzlies numbers last season
28th in expected winning percentage (.331).
8th in pace factor (92 posessions per game).
11th in offensive efficiency/offensive rating (108.7).
30th in defensive efficiency/defensive rating (114.3).

Key links
3 Shades of Blue.
Beale Street Beat.
3 Shades of Blue game preview.
Post: Despite injuries, roster seems set.
Marty Burns: "Wizards are toast".
3SOB blog preview.
Competition Discussion: Memphis.

Starting lineups:

Grizzlies

PG: Damon Stoudamire
SG: Mike Miller
SF: Rudy Gay
PF: Pau Gasol
C: Darko Milicic/Stromile Swift

Wizards
PG: Antonio Daniels
SG: DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Caron Butler
PF: Antawn Jamison
C: Brendan Haywood (hopefully)

Tonight's lines:
Wizards at Grizzlies: Grizzlies by 6
Over/Under on total points: 205.

I know, I know, second game of a back to back, but I'm not scared of tonight's game. Memphis is a mess right now, with their star player struggling to adapt to their new coach, and a number of unfortunate injuries. Their key rookie, Mike Conley, is out, making it two consecutive years in which their rookie point guard was hurt in the first month of the season. Rudy Gay is balling, but he's been struggling recently, and while Stromile Swift is playing well, he might have to play more with Darko out.

When we previewed this team, they seemed like a darkhorse playoff squad. Now, I just don't see it. Pau has an insanely low 11.8 rebound rate this year, and often looks lost offensively. Mike Miller has fallen back to earth a bit, and it's painful to see Damon Stoudamire starting and Kyle Lowry sitting. They're decent offensively, but they don't have a penetrating guard who could hurt us, so I see a good defensive performance tonight. On the other end, they're still not defending, with no shotblockers and a host of inexperienced wingmen. I see Caron playing well tonight against the madator defense of Rudy Gay, and I see Blatche and Jamison having strong games.

One thing Memphis does have, though, is decent depth, with Lowry, Terrance Kinsey, the hated one, Hakim Warrick, and potentially Swift off the bench. This game will likely become a track meet, so that doesn't really bode well for us. Nick Young is going to have to be big again, and I'd like to see Songaila show me something tonight. Those two, and Blatche, will be key.

But something about this game seems so unthreatening. We really need this one, with Dallas and San Antonio coming up next week. If we don't get it, we're in trouble.

This is an open game thread, so add to the tally of "if only we had JCN" comments here (we're at two so far).

GO WIZARDS!

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Comments

Wizards, over

That line is ridiculous.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 24, 2007 4:42 PM EST reply actions

Amen to that

You can join these picks competitions at any time, right?

If so, count me in for the Wiz and the over as well.

From today's handicapping column at Taking it to the Rack (we're still calling it that. And by 'we,' I mean 'I.'): Washington over MEMPHIS (-5.5) - Even in the absence of Hibachi, the Wiz continue to fill it up. Memphis hasn't proved itself as a substantial favorite yet, particularly in shootouts.

Prada -- Viable point in today's piece about not knowing how many more shootouts the Wiz can afford, but as of yet, I'm not sure the style change is imminent. Sould be a lot of points, which could well benefit the Wiz tonight.

Liked the game preview for tonight a lot -- wholly on the same page with just about everything you said.

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Nov 24, 2007 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

pickss

wizards
under

gman and gwiz should go on tour.

by i love gwiz on Nov 24, 2007 5:58 PM EST reply actions

wiz, over

I think they'll bounce back. I hate seeing losses live, but I got a free burrito out of it.

What will Brenda do tonight?

by thebigc1982 on Nov 24, 2007 5:58 PM EST reply actions

Mmmmm, Chipotle

You know, they don't have Chipotle in Philadelphia. they have Qdoba instead, which I belive is Spanish for "crappy knockoff of Chipotle that ought to go out of business already." This is one of the many reasons why DC is a better city than Philadelphia.

Clearly wiz, pretty clearly over. One question mark tonight is going to be Caron's knee. The Post article had him limping at the end of the game, but saying he'd be fine for today. I'm sure he'll play, but we might see him settle for the jumper a lot more, which would be trouble.

Matchup of the night: Nick Young vs JCN. Which rookie guard puts up more points? I think laser is gonna produce.

by sierradave on Nov 24, 2007 7:05 PM EST up reply actions

Picks

Wizards
Over
JCN shoots under 33%

Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 24, 2007 6:26 PM EST reply actions

haha

i love just watching the things blatche does out there, that play he just made where he came from the weakside/middle and tried to block rudy gay, leaped so high and knocked over songaila made my day. Im not sure if he even got the ball, but the attempt was amazing.

by Wooz on Nov 24, 2007 8:38 PM EST reply actions

Help me out here

again, I've only been able to listen to the last four games, so I have no idea what the defense actually looks like. But...

Are you really going to tell me that the improved defense this year was all about GILBERT? As in, lose Agent Zero and the offense won't miss a beat, but the DEFENSE will take a step back?

Just too weird.

by sierradave on Nov 24, 2007 9:41 PM EST reply actions

Seems like it

AD and Mason are too slow, apparently.

Also, we're seeing segababa legs right now. Everyone's missing their jumpers.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 24, 2007 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

Any guesses as to how many Navarro comments

In this thread and the postgame one?

I say 6.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 24, 2007 9:56 PM EST reply actions

You-know-who

We should've left his ass in Europe.

This is painful.

by sierradave on Nov 24, 2007 9:56 PM EST reply actions

I'm making the t-shirts

Front Side:
IF ONLY

Back Side:
We had JCN

07-08 Reg Season Stndgs(predicted 8/6/07) 1 Chi 52-30 2 Was 51-31 3 Cle 50-32 4 Bos/Det 48-34 6 Tor/Mia 47-35 8 NJ 42-40 9 NY/Orl 41-41

by kdp922 on Nov 24, 2007 10:42 PM EST reply actions

Rout?

Didn't see any of this game (Mizzou-KU took up a substantial portion of the evening), but tracking it on Gamecast every few minutes seemed to indicate a seesaw type game with the Grizz pulling away at the end. Any particular reason why ESPN's recap is entitled "Navarro, Gay combine for 55 as Grizzlies rout Wiz"? Score would seem to indicate otherwise.

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Nov 25, 2007 12:09 AM EST reply actions

I wouldn't call it a rout

Memphis opened a somewhat comfortable lead about halfway through the fourth, but the Wizards got back into it. The final score may have been slightly deceiving, but it was far from a rout.

Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 25, 2007 1:10 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks for dropping the knowledge, Jake

much appreciated.

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Nov 25, 2007 1:30 AM EST up reply actions

Bryant Reeves!

Navarro had 28 points on 14 shots. Is that a "f***-you" game, or is he really that good?

And I agree with Steve; a six-point victory does not a rout make.

Third Quarter Collapse: An SB Nation Blog for Orlando Magic Fans

by Evan Dunlap on Nov 25, 2007 12:25 AM EST reply actions

I'll let you decide

"It's a special game," Navarro said before the game. "They picked me in the draft and I want to play good against them for that reason."

Link

Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 25, 2007 12:34 AM EST up reply actions

Ouch

"F***-you game" it is, then.

Why did you guys trade him? Was his buy-out too expensive?

Third Quarter Collapse: An SB Nation Blog for Orlando Magic Fans

by Evan Dunlap on Nov 25, 2007 12:45 AM EST up reply actions

A little bit of everything

Lack of salary cap room, gave the Wizards more of what they already had (scoring) and even less of what they didn't (defense), and he kind of hinted that he'd like to play with Pau Gasol.

Bullets Forever: Your place for the very latest in Wizards news and PhD-level analysis.

by Jake Whitacre on Nov 25, 2007 12:56 AM EST up reply actions