Competition Discussion: Orlando

by Jake Whitacre on Oct 28, 2007 10:25 PM EDT in Team Analysis

[In the hope of getting all if not most of these done before the season starts, I'm going to give this a shot, despite the fact I possess about one-tenth of Prada's basketball knowledge. If this is terrible, we'll just pretend it never happened. -Jake]

The season is less than one week away, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little). We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else. In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next month or so. We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z. Today's team: Orlando.

Last year's record: 40-42.

In: Rashard Lewis (free agent), Adonal Foyle (free agent), Marcin Gortat (2005 draft).
Out: Grant Hill (free agent), Darko Milicic (free agent), Travis Diener (free agent). Tony Battie is still with the team, but won't see any action this year due to season ending shoulder surgery.

Projected starting lineup: Jameer Nelson, Keyon Dooling, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Dwight Howard.
Bench (in alphabetical order): Trevor Ariza, James Augustine, Tony Battie, Keith Bogans, Adonal Foyle, Pat Garrity, Marcin Gortat, Bo Outlaw, J.J. Redick.

So how do we feel about this team? Obviously, the Magic had the biggest signing of the off-season locking up Rashard Lewis for what can only be described as crazy money. I could obviously go off on the ramifications of this sign-and-trade ad nauseum, but I'd mostly just be restating the obvious, so I'll just say this: While most of agree that Orlando overpaid Lewis, I think we can also all agree that the signing made Orlando better. Paired together with a young and improving Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu, this Orlando team has one of the better starting frontcourts in the East. If one of them goes down, there could be some problems in O-Town.

However, the real question mark with this team is how well the backcourt performs. As the 'master put it:

But I feel like Orlando's problem isn't shooting, it's that their guards still turn the ball over too much. That was the major reason why their offense sucked last year, and I don't see it getting any better.

With all that said, I'll say Orlando finishes 43-39. Enough to make the playoffs, but not enough to put together a serious title run.

-----------------------------------
Other CDs, with mine and Jake's projected record alongside. Yours, of course, are in the comments of those posts.

Atlanta: 38-44/34-48.
Boston: 50-32/52-30.
Charlotte: 42-40/39-43. Of course, this news changes everything. Now, I say the Bobcats finish 35-47.
Chicago: 56-26/56-26.
Cleveland: 47-35/46-36.
Dallas: 54-28/56-26.
Denver: 51-31/49-33.
Detroit: 53-29/48-34.
Golden State: 36-46/35-47.
Houston: 57-25/46-36.
Indiana: 26-56/20-62.
LA Clippers: 23-59/19-63.
LA Lakers: 42-40/42-40.
Memphis: 37-45/35-47.
Miami: 38-44/41-41.
Milwaukee: 33-49/31-51.
New Jersey: 41-41/45-37.
New York: 34-48/36-46.

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Comments

This is creepy

We agree on the 43-39 record.

I'll try to flush out my point about their guards in a later post, but let's just say that I'm not a Jameer Nelson fan.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Oct 28, 2007 10:44 PM EDT reply actions

41-41

This might just be east coast bias on my part - I honestly have no meaningful recollections of seeing Rashard Lewis play - but I'm not convinced that replacing Grant Hill and Darko with Lewis is going to be that big of an upgrade.

I don't think they have the guards to be a serious contender, I don't think they have the bench for it. But Dwight Howard is a beast and is just gonna keep getting better.

by sierradave on Oct 29, 2007 12:19 AM EDT reply actions

42-40

Just to nail sierradave with the Price Is Right technique.

Actually, I don't think they really upgraded that much either. Its pretty much a universal agreement that there is no way Rashard Lewis is worth the money.

I think where this team is really going to regress is defense - Howard was never really what you'd call a defensive force and Gil even thinks Rashard doesn't concentrate enough on defense. Say what you will about Darko, but he did block shots.

by mamemimo on Oct 29, 2007 9:39 AM EDT reply actions

I stand by 46-36

Say what you will about his contract, but Rashard Lewis is still a good player. The Magic's biggest weakness last season was an inability to score. They've addressed that. Now we just have to hope that we can cut the turnovers down. Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo will play better in Stan Van Gundy's faster, less-deliberate offense. That's not to say that they're going to be world-beaters, but they are going to be improved.

I worry about depth at the two, though. Bogans is a good defender and three-point shooter, but he's worthless if his shots aren't falling. Redick is a better shooter, but one of the least effective defenders in the game. Dooling is better suited at the point, and Ariza is better suited at the three. So that's the biggest weakness, I think. That and the four.

Third Quarter Collapse: An SBNation Blog for Orlando Magic Fans

by Evan Dunlap on Oct 29, 2007 2:51 PM EDT reply actions

See

I know Orlando's offense stunk, but I don't think three point shooting was as much a weakness as turnovers. It wasn't like they shot a lot and missed; they just didn't shoot them; (29th in the league, I believe). They never got any opportunities, because Dwight couldn't pass out of a double team, the guards didn't get the shooters the ball.

In response, Orlando added the shooters, not the guys who could get shooters the ball. They solved about a third of the problem by doing that.

Until they totally rebuild their backcourt, I have trouble believing they'll be anything more than a borderline playoff team. That is, unless Jameer Nelson proves me wrong.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Oct 29, 2007 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

It's more than threes

Rashard is known primarily as a three-point specialist, but he does more than just that. The Magic didn't have anyone on their roster last year who they could give the ball to and say "Okay, go score." Lewis can do that this year. And Dwight has shown more versatility in the preseason, so he may turn into a solid second option in the clutch.

Nelson is probably going to have a monster year. He's playing for a new contract and he's the kind of guy who thrives when there's pressure on him. I don't think he's going to be an All-Star, but I do think he's going to have a career year, something like 16 points/7 assists per game.

Stan Van Gundy's coaching is also going to make a huge difference.

Yes, the Magic have problems in the backcourt, but I don't think that's going to keep them from making the playoffs and contending for a division title.

Third Quarter Collapse: An SBNation Blog for Orlando Magic Fans

by Evan Dunlap on Oct 29, 2007 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions

We'll see about Nelson

We agree that they'll be a playoff team and content for the division title. I just don't think Orlando will win it.

Stan Van is a phenomenal coach, and that's the one reason I'm scared of Orlando. As for Jameer, well, we'll see. He's only been good for one stretch in his career.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Oct 29, 2007 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions