Perhaps he's learning

by Pradamaster on Oct 19, 2007 3:30 PM EDT in Coaching

I was really interested to read Ivan's latest blog entry, because it deals with what smart Wizards fans like us consider to be one of the team's major problems: the rotation.

Ivan basically said that Eddie has settled on the top 8 already, which, to me, is excellent news, not just because of who's there, but also because it seems like he at least has a plan.

We know the starters are Arenas, Stevenson, Butler, Jamison and B Haywood. The top three reserves will likely be Daniels, Songaila and Blatche (based on his ability to play the backup 5 and his performance thus far in camp and the first four games).

Honestly, that's a nice start. I'm overjoyed that Blatche is going to be a regular in the rotation, playing behind Brendan and Jamison. Personally, I like the idea of playing Songaila and Blatche together in the second unit, because they complement each other so well. Offensively, Songaila has a great jumper, while Blatche is really good around the rim, so they won't be stepping on each other's shoes. Defensively, Blatche can (hopefully) compensate for Songaila's problems with his length and helpside rotations.

Beyond those eight, apparently Eddie hasn't decided on the 9-12 slots. He reportedly is leaning between Laser, Taser, Pech, and Mason as filling those last spots, but the order has yet to be determined.

I'd guess that Pech is safely slotted as the third big man off the bench, behind Blatche and Songaila. He probably won't play much, but it'll be nice to have a bigger body when needed.

The other three guys (Young, Mason, McGuire) are interesting, though. There's no doubt that each of those guys is behind Daniels, who must get a solid number of minutes. I'm assuming Daniels will play a lot with Arenas, as he has in the past, and while my eyes tell me that the duo is not a good defensive pair, 82 games says otherwise. Last year, when Arenas was paired with Daniels, the Wizards' defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 posessions) was 103.1. When Arenas was paired with Stevenson, the so-called defensive stopped, the team's defensive efficiency was 107.3. I'll admit that I was surprised by that, but it definitely means AD's got to play.

But that doesn't mean Eddie should bury Laser and Taser. Assuming Roger Mason is the fifth guard (and if he's not, we have a problem), then how do you get our rookie combo to get good minutes? I'd like to see McGuire play with Arenas and Daniels if Caron Butler is sitting, because it'll be nice to have someone playing small forward who can compensate when opponents blow by Arenas and Daniels. But I also think McGuire should play alongside Caron Butler, because that lineup will be flying all over the court. A Daniels/Butler/McGuire trio might be our best defensive lineup, and lord knows we need defense. At the same time, though, this team has invested too much in Young to not give him at least some minutes. Young strikes me as someone who would play best without Gilbert Arenas, so I'd play him during the 8-10 minutes a game that Gilbert would rest. He strikes me as someone who would work best in an AD/Young/Butler trio.

But what of Stevenson? Remember, at the end of last year, we said that Stevenson would be best used as a backup. His defense was really move average than great, and looking now, it's possible his shooting last year was a bit of a fluke. With all these options on the wing, plus Daniels, I feel like it only makes sense to cut his minutes down. I'd start him still, but I wouldn't necessarily have him finish games as much as he did last season.

So where does that leave us? I'm not quite sure, but the guard rotation will be Eddie's biggest challenge. Hopefully, he can fulfill it, but I have my doubts.

How would you break the minutes down on the wing?

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daniels

remember that daniels wasnt getting very many minutes before arenas got hurt last year. hes not a guy that can give you a ton of minutes

by joshp on Oct 19, 2007 3:36 PM EDT 0 recs

But who's fault is that?

Eddie, or AD?

I place more blame on Eddie than anything. AD should have played more, because the team was better when he was paired with Gil.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Oct 19, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

not so sure

im not so sure. while daniels could have given more minutes, i dont think he could have done throughout the season. if you try to give him 20 mins a game for a whole season, hell break down

by joshp on Oct 19, 2007 7:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

daniels and gil

I'm surprised to hear that Daniels and Gilbert are better defensively than Daniels and Stevenson. Could it be that Gilbert is better guarding the 2 rather than the point guard? I would think so with the exception of Rip Hamilton/Reggie Miller types who are always in motion.

by hotplate on Oct 19, 2007 3:54 PM EDT 0 recs

typo above

I meant Gilbert and Stevenson, not Daniels and Stevenson.

by hotplate on Oct 19, 2007 4:03 PM EDT 0 recs

deshawn and ad

theyre both solid players who give you average defense and slightly above average offense. When theyre in the game they dont hurt you, but their presence on the court severly limits what youre gonna be able to do. Theyre just not high ceiling players at this point in their careers. Anything we can do to start to phase them out, without sacrificing too many wins, is for the better in the long term.

by Wooz on Oct 20, 2007 1:44 PM EDT 0 recs

Correction

A very important point -- the numbers being cited as defensive "efficiency" from 82games, are NOT efficiency stats. The player pair data is presented as per 48 minutes. Efficiency is per 100 possessions. Per minute opponent scoring does go down when Daniels and Arenas are on the floor together, but that's likely only a pace effect that we're seeing. Some research I did (published on a message board somewhere -- I should probably go find it at some point) showed that Arenas caused the biggest pace change in the league, but that Daniels slowed the Wizards down.

In other words, the numbers from 82games do not show that the team was better defensively when Arenas and Daniels were on the floor together. They show a drop in pts allowed per 48 minutes, which is likely because Daniels slows the team a bit.

by TheSecretWeapon on Oct 22, 2007 2:57 PM EDT 0 recs

Right

I understand the efficiency thing...a bit of an oversight on my part.

But what I don't get is why the per-48 minute numbers are somehow a factor of pace. Does that just mean they aren't pace-adjusted?

If so, then it'll be interesting to see how much AD slowed the Wizards down, and over what time period you're talking about. Based on my own eyes, I didn't see a huge difference in pace when AD entered the game, but that might have just been me.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Pradamaster on Oct 22, 2007 5:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

Numbers to go with the claim

Correct -- the per 48 minute numbers on those pages at 82games are NOT adjusted for pace.

Here are the numbers on the pace effect I'm describing. In 05-06, the Wiz played 6.4 possessions per 48 minutes faster when Arenas was in the game. When Daniels was in the game, they slowed by 2.1 possessions per 48 minutes.

Last season (which is more relevant to the discussion we're having), the Wiz played 7.3 possessions per 48 minutes faster when Arenas was on the floor. Daniels slowed them by 4.3 possessions per 48 minutes.

So, opponent scoring went down when Daniels came in because the pace of the game likely slowed -- I'd estimate by about 2.1 possessions per 48 minutes when both Arenas and Daniels were in the game together. Wiz scoring went up because they became more efficient with those two on the floor together. (Replacing Stevenson with Daniels would boost most offenses.)

by TheSecretWeapon on Oct 24, 2007 1:13 PM EDT up 0 recs